Re: Why Cliffs? Some other possibilities!!!
posted on
Jan 24, 2011 01:40PM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
Great perspectives cashin17 and rj...as always. I would like to offer some additional food for thought wrt the possibility of KWG becoming something bigger than we as a group have discussed or if even considered. A kind of review of sorts...
What would KWG's SP go to if:
1. for whatever reason Cliff's was not able to or willing to make a take-over offer and KWG became the recipient of 30% of 1.5bil revenue per year for a hundred+ years; this would probably represent a net annual cash influx of over 450Mil; matched with the 1% NSR and the revenues from the RR (?? $$), KWG could become a producing/exploration company whose growth could ultimately justify and support a dividend not to mention the possible growth through acquisitions, megers and JVs;
2. Cliff's feels the pressure from favorable information and development of NRs/ circumstances and decides to make the take-over offer. We all assume that they would low-ball us like they did to Freewest and Spider...let's say for argument's sake it started at .20per share, which roughly speaking equals $160mil and went as high as .25per share or $200mil...how difficult would it be for XStrada to raise the bid into ranges that would exceed Cliff's bankbook. Let's face it...this chromium play doesn't just represent XX value of mineral...it represents control of the supply to the stainless steel industry of North America not mention many emerging economies;
3. Probe decided to JV its chome assets with KWG in order to create a concentration of value that rivals Cliffs...now you would have a chromium asset that is more attractive to the big players given that they could participate in the accessibility to the area as well as the transportation of the resource to market;
4 on the other hand, Cliffs buys out Probe's chromium and moves forward in the development of the mine and the contracts for selling the ore. They could show the Feds a immediate capability for development and put pressure (on gov and partners) towards the building of the RR, with reciprocal agreements and concessions to accomodate many or all the collateral interests associated with the ROF (environment, FN, jobs, social infrastructure etc...)
5. the Fed gov realizes the urgency as well as the economic importance of this phenomenal project relative to the coming election and authorizes the flow-through funding that is required for CC to move forward on the RR and the required partnerships????? (Chinese, Xstrada, CN, Ontario Northland.etc...). This would automatically eliminate the "what ifs" related to the shipping of the ore and shift the attention the imminent need for the location of the smelter to be identified. Synergies and cost savings, would be obvious in the case of Xstrada's existing Northern Ontario assets, which would then, probably make it the front runner for the acquisition of chromium assets as well as the building of the mine/support infrastructure. Let's also keep in mind that Xstrada has the chromium expertise already in place...this is a relatively new game for Cliffs. Who knows, Cliffs might even flip the FWR and SPQ chrome assets to concentrate on steel, given their recent acquisition in Newfoundland /Labrador.
Sorry if I rambled on a bit, but these are some of the possibilities I see without getting into too much detail. I don't consider myself a dreamer and my rational left brain can see when pieces of a puzzle start falling into place...even if it takes much longer than I would prefer.
Best of luck to all in your ventures
Le Penseur
...by the way, is there a tentative date for the 3rd Annual ROF golf tournament this summer...I would like to plan for it and many weekends are filling up.