Massive Black Horse Chromite Discovery

Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%

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Message: Drill results
4
Dec 10, 2010 01:01PM

Just a comment on the upcoming drilling and sample analysis results.

My feeling is that results of the bulk sample analysis, when released, will not move the SP. Logically speaking, they are taking a couple tons of ore out of the chromite body. They are doing this to get a more accurate analysis of the properties of that ore, which includes ratios and percentages. I do not know if they are just taking a big chunk of ore from a single spot in the middle, or big chunks from a few different spots and lumping them together. I would assume that the latter would be more representative of the deposit as a whole.

Anyway, one of the "simple" numbers that will come back in that sample is the overall percentage of chromite. That's a number that even the least geologically inclined people will understand. Now because this is a bigger sample, the percentage will not be higher than the best individual hole results found to date. After all, it's a bigger average. So if people have seen that the best holes to date were say 42.5% (I'm just taking a stab here, not inclined to go back to the PR's and find the actual highest hole), then maybe the sample will come in at say 38.8% overall. A lot of people will feel disappointed, because it's not as high as they hoped. (Although of course the geologists will probably be fascinated and happy). The only way that I think this information will move the SP will be if the properties are such that Frank can get away with saying that "because of the high quality of this ore, we believe that certain processing steps can be skipped over." The one thing that we want is for Big Daddy to be such high quality that even Cliffs realizes that they shouldn't try to shut KWG out by moving forward with Big Thor and putting BD on the back burner for a decade. It becomes a simple financial calculation. If it was going to take$400m to take out KWG now, and Cliffs could avoid paying that by mining BT instead, that would not make sense if they were going to pull $400m less profits out of BT over the next decade. They want to high grade if possible and shorten their payback time, and increase ROI.

Now on the other hand, the infill drilling results which will come out a few months later, probably in March, are the results that I'm really interested in. Moving to "indicated" is a game-changer, because then the valuation becomes much more official. That will provide the logical basis for a higher SP. And of course, there is always the chance that the depth will be expanded slightly to make everything a bit bigger. I'm not counting on that, but you never know.

Comments? Agree, or disagree? What am I leaving out?

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Dec 10, 2010 01:39PM
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Dec 10, 2010 01:49PM
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Dec 10, 2010 02:52PM
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Dec 10, 2010 02:59PM
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Dec 10, 2010 03:13PM
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