Info, speculation, SPQ mtg!
posted on
Oct 05, 2010 08:50AM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
Sorry for the delay Irish...but here is the joining of two private messages...I see a few possible scenarios, depending on what Cliffs assumes and/or truly beleives...
1. if they truly beleive that .19 is a fair offer, then they will fight to the bitter end...even if they think they might lose in court they will take a chance that more dissenters will fall off the wagon, for instance if their respective carrying costs are to high and they can't wait any longer or if the stocks are held in an RRSP , in which case ordering the certificates (during the second phase i.e.confirmation of the dissenting action), causes the shares and their value to be withdrawn from the RRSP and thus subject to the 25-30% income tax, which in itself might change someone's mind about dissenting those shares;
2. if Cliffs know (by their calculations) that .19 is low, then they probably will not want to allow time and opportunity for contradictory information to come out, including a.more drilling results that would convert inferred resources to indicated (as well as attract a possible competing bid)and b.the confirmed results of the valuation (I was told that the only reason the valuation was withdrawn, is because the regulators took exception to the fact that the inferred resources, were not 43-101 compliant and therfore shouldn't have been included in the valuation;
3. if they anticipate that the recent news about the Premier's announcement as well as the agreements signed between a few chiefs of the FN might draw attention to the intrinsic value of the RR, as well as the possibility of deep pockets showing up at the table to fund the dual phase of development, then they might want to make an offer over the long weekend of Oct, but remember that it has to be a friendly offer (accepted by the KWG board)...an attenuating factor in this scenario might be the final number of SPQ dissenters, given that this will either increase or decrease the probability of an increase in the final SPQ SP which in turn would automatically narrow the range for an eventual KWG take-over price.
The dissenting process can be lengthy...Following the meeting, we will have 20 business days to produce our certificates and confirm our dissention...then Cliffs / SPQ have 50 business days to put forward their case to the courts and obtain a court date...then they go to court and present their case against the opposition who might be a bunch of individuals behind the KWG lawyers...then a decision from the courts and a settlement within X number of days. You can check CBCA section 190.
Let's keep in mind that this is a double edge sword for Cliffs...they can fight to save money (a few pennies) on the SPQ SP, which then lowers the eventual starting bid for KWG, but at the same time good news about KWG could come out at any time, which would raise the KWG SP and cost them a great deal more...SPQ = $.01 X 99mil shares = 9.9 mil $$ but KWG = $.01 X 689 mil shares = 68.9 million $$...it all depends on where they perceive the greatest probability of risk.
Either way KWG have confirmed that they feel very confident in their position, given that the development of the mines depends on the capability of shipping the ore out. I seriously doubt that Cliffs would want KWG to benefit from 30% of the ore value + shipping profits + 1% NSR, if they can obtain 100% of Big Daddy for themselves, and control the chromium / stainless steel market of North America. KWG's ace in the hole is the abilty to spin out the RR and/or Debut Diamonds and/or the NSR if the offer from Cliffs doesn't cut it...
I tried to get to the meeting in Toronto but was late = traffic! construction!...I did talk to one of the lawyers...she said it was an uneventful mtg...only 2% voted against the amalgamation... next step = those who sent their intent to dissent letter will get some sort of acknowledgment of receipt as well as a notice to provide certificates as per section 190 of CBCA...then the ball starts rolling...she did mention that more often than not, the process does not go all the way to the courts (especially if there are few dissenters left) and ends up being settled by a subsequent offer(s)...for those sho haven't expressed an intention to dissent, can send an email or letter to Spider advising them that you are willing to accept .19 as per their offer and wait for an answer...
more to follow...hopefully Cliffs will want to tidy this up quickly and offer something reasonable as per the valuations that would eventually surface in the court case = IMHO $.25-$.30 per share.
that's all I've got for now
Good luck...LP