Valuation - 2
posted on
Sep 12, 2010 08:04AM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
A small correction re valuation 1, mea culpa, KWG/SPQ between US $300 - US $440 should be US $418.
The Broad Oak Valuation - was only based on the potential cash flow from Big Daddy Chromite Deposit and determined that a 30% interest of the indicated and inferred resources, if mined and sold as lump ore, has a NPV of between US $140.7 and US $300.1 million based on a discount rate of 8% at lump ore prices of US $300 tonnne and US $350 tonne with the mid range of US $325 tonne yielding a US $220 million NPV.
The railroad - The significant cost assumption incorporated in Broad Oak's DCF model is that the entire US $1.7 billion projected cost of construction of a railroad to ship lump ores to export market ports is borne by the mining of only the presently identified and assumed open-pittable resources (Big Daddy) providing a life of mine of 15 years, KWG believes that this railroad will serve a new mining district expected to develop at its northern terminus and have a life that would permit its cost to be amortized over many decades.
The Broad Oak Valuation indicates that the Big Daddy interest alone has a net present value, calculated on this basis, of from US $ 0.17 to US $0.36 per KWG share with the mid range yielding US 0.27 per share.
Think about it, the projected cost of US1.7 billion to bring in the railroad to mine BD alone and just serving a projected mine life of 15 years, never mind we would be opening up the whole area for railroad access, BD would still make our KWG (and SPQ) shares worth approx.US 0.27 per share. This is all based on just our proven resources of end May, no wonder we want to start drilling early Oct to increase our known reserves and think if we find more, how much this will make KWG shares increase. We are sitting on a "gold mine" and every day we work to increase our resource will only increase our share value, also keep in mind, the Broad Oak Valuation does not even take into account Debut Diamonds (Canada Chrome) and our NSR which we all know is a great addition to our value.
And yet we are being kept down to a trading range of .11 -.12, is it any wonder why? With this value in KWG stated by 2 independent valuations, when the lid comes off and Cliffs or someone else comes aknocking, we should certainly see a major appreciation in our share price. After re-reading these valuations, i myself realize no one should even be thinking of selling and moving on to some other play. rj