Man talk about mixed messages on the direction of Nickel pricing. It almost seems dated although it was released on th June 3/09

http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA...

Nickel price to drop 47% in 2009, analysts says

Only a 4% price rebound projected for 2010

By Tom Stundza -- Purchasing, 6/3/2009 1:35:00 PM

With stainless steel production crashing worldwide this year, demand for key alloy nickel is sliding and its world price will average $5.10/lb, a 47% drop from $9.57 in 2008. That’s the forecast from Adrian Gardner, associate consultant for the Brook Hunt unit of Wood Mackenzie, speaking at a TD Bank-sponsored commodities conference in Toronto, where he forecasts a nickel price rebound to just $5.19 in 2010

World use of stainless steel dropped 8% in 2008 and is on pace to slide another 13% this year to 18.25 million metric tons. That has caused production cutbacks worldwide and reduced the global need for nickel. “The market changed quickly late last year,” Gardner says, noting that fourth quarter stainless steel production dropped 9.4% from third-quarter levels and nickel demand fell by 7%.

In the U.S., fourth quarter production dropped 20% when AK Steel closed its Mansfield, Ohio, stainless shop, Allegheny Ludlum cut stainless output at Midland, Pa., and North American Stainless reduced output by an estimated 30% at its plant in Carroll County, Ky. This trend has continued in early 2009, he says, since North American Stainless, AK Steel, Universal Stainless and Carpenter Technology have all posted lower production and sales in early 2009.

His analysis shows that there has been reduced buying of nickel-based stainless steel by makers of motor vehicles, major appliances, process industry machinery and equipment and building and construction products.

“Available data may suggest we’ve seen the worst of the stainless steel demand decline,” he says, but he also projects that “the near term will be a period of supply chain stock replenishment, at best.” Gardner says the most optimistic outlook shows “real demand coming back into view” late this year so that “primary nickel demand in stainless steel could return to pre-crisis level by the fourth quarter.” But, he says this market rebound could very easily be pushed into 2010--when he sees world use growing by 6%.

See also: Nickel price rundown downplayed by analysts.

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http://www.purchasing.com/article/ca...