Re: Discussion
posted on
Oct 20, 2008 11:46PM
The company is exploring for nickel deposits on its Langmuir property near Timmins, Ontario; for nickel-gold-copper on its Cleaver and Douglas properties; and for molybdenum and rare earth elements at recently acquired Desrosiers property.
One has to look at why you want to be in Nickel for one thing. The commodities sector/s may be beat up at the moment and as they say the baby has been thrown out with the water. Where do you see this bet going? Short term or long term?
As an investor in this particular stock, does one see an investment today appreciating and creating decent returns on that investment. If not an initial investment now, is it a good time to be averaging down from a previous buy?
They say buy the dips and to buy when joe public is selling. Have we seen that, have we seen new yr lows as of late?
Deadcat bounce? Bottom Feeding? Value Investing?
Weigh out the risk being here in this stock. Identify the risks. What will be the sure things for this company? Are there any?
If there is still a substantial period of uncertainty ahead of us, should we all just go to cash and wait out the markets. What's the outlook for the economy, the world growth potential, the demand for commodities and specifically the base metals like nickel? Market curtailments will have what effect on LME inventory? How long will it take to trickle down and how long will it last. A vicious circle is the commodity market.
Will China the big driver truly come to a halt? A world recession is the only thing that can do that.
Are investors buying into ISM for the prospects of one day becoming a Nickel producer/miner? We are way too small for that and we could not do that on our own. Maybe if we had a JV and that comes at a cost. Or are we/they buying into the speculative exploration angle where once we prove up our resource, we off load it to a major one day?
If we as investors have to play the waiting game, does the company have the operating cash to do the same. To continue drilling and exploring? We aren't a mill or a mine, we are drillers and explorers. The price of nickel will affect our prospects and our attractiveness, but we are somewhat less affected by the daily price of nickel than our numerous Ontario based counterparts who are of producer status.
Right now it will be all about supply demand balances and the almighty cost of production for many. Only the low cost and or diversified producers will survive downturns. Lean and mean and if your are a pure play then god help you in choosing which play to be in. Oh and don't forget the Laterite/Sulphide distinctions too, lucky us!
One has to look at many things here, the markets being the biggest factor for assessing our future. Getting back to an old saying, "the rising tide floats boats", well guess what, the tide has turned and we are all going down the drain.
Look at ISM for it's cash on hand value alone? Wow. For a buck you can throw in a free pile of Nickel and credit minerals.....LOL That's not to mention the other properties either?
Whether this is a buy, hold, or sell, is truly a personal decision and one left up to a good deal of DD. Leave your emotions at the door and if you cannot think clearly or with a sane head, see a financial advisor for the ultimate in professional counsel for future direction and growth prospects in these crazy markets.
I have made my mind up and the mix of fundamental and technical analysis combined with the market driven trading opportunities makes for a perfect storm for this investor. It's probably the most exciting time yet for us as investors. Randy referred to some recent milestone events on the table. Heck who wants to walk away from that?
Having said that, are we in good hands? Do we trust management to deliver and lead.
IMHO given a correct choice, a patient investor is always rewarded. Think of the leverage opportunity one has when the share prices do drop. For those who do not average down, it's a long time coming to get back to one's original, and likely higher, entry points.
cheers and of course IMHO