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Message: What the IPT buyer should know

What the IPT buyer should know

posted on Feb 02, 2009 07:27AM

Mike's fundamental take on this company, certainly is, very much appreciated. In my years in the business I have been prone to sizing up a company's share potential based upon analysis of price history. This is not an exact science but an artful approach in an attempt go with the percentages.

Since the initial contact at the $1000 level for gold and the $21 plus area on silver, the great majority of folks just stop relying on chart analysis, if they ever had an interest in the first place, because they felt that they were home free and had arrived with higher pm prices. I happened to be one of those people.

Since the two or three banks drilled the gold and silver prices another orifice in the August to September 2007 period, I have vowed never again to be caught asleep at the switch. I was caught holding 100% invested in pm shares as were many others.

Too much time is wasted on boards, in my opinion, with nonsense. It is my feeling that we need to have more important perspectives in always in mind. Number one is management. Thanks to Mike we know that IPT has excellent management. Following the identification of outstanding management we to understand the price environment. I speak of three criterias: the long term, the medium term and the short term.

In the case of IPT the long term price environment has been shaken and needs time to recover. In order for recovery to start, I think it's necessary to do some work at base building. Apparently, this is where we find ourselves today. The intermediate picture still looks bearish to me but with limited downside potential. In regards to the short term, I see the shares at being over-priced with the potential to drop down again to the 40 cent to 50 cent range. The shares at the 64 cent to 66 cent area look heavy to me. Currently on the chart the shares are near to the top of a 6 month bollinger band at about 68 cents or so and just about touching from below, a declining 200 day moving average line at about 66 cents. In similiar past instances, more times than not, these indicator positions have, in my opinion, been responsible for guiding prices lower for awhile.

I'm not saying for sure that the shares will to come down but am only stating that based upon my interpretation from observation that the greater probabilities favor it. I would prefer watching the shares go higher but I think the stock is telling us that we should expect it to take a rest with some lower prices before any new moves to the upside can be expected.





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