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IPCC: 1.5°C limit needs rapid and far-reaching action, but enables SDG progress

With the COP24 in Katowice in Poland just around the corner, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released a new report assessing the current efforts in climate change mitigation, and calculating the costs and benefits of staying with a 1.5°C warming scenario, compared to a 2°C scenario.

The IPCC presented its latest report on Monday, in Incheon, South Korea, highlighting that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require unprecedented changes in all aspects of society, and they would need to be implemented very rapidly and at a large-scale.

Until 2035, the world would need to invest US$2.4 trillion for the transition of the industrial, energy, agricultural, residential and transport sectors. For the energy sector, the panel recognized the critical role solar PV and storage are playing, as system costs for both have plummeted over the last years, making it a highly affordable source of energy, also for regions where there had been no access to electricity, so far.

The benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C would be significant, as the 91 authors point to the fact that current warming levels of 1°C already have cause sea-level rise, increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events and droughts. The scientists claim that staying within the limits of 1.5°C would decrease the likelihood of an ice-free arctic from once per decade in a 2°C scenario, to once per century. Furthermore, coral reefs would decline by 70-90% instead of >99%.

Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Co-Chair of Working Group I, said on the matter, “The good news is that some of the kinds of actions that would be needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C are already underway around the world, but they would need to accelerate.”

Sustainable growth enabled by renewables

To meet the target, “rapid and far-reaching” transitions in all sectors are necessary. The report suggests that to meet the target, global human-caused carbon emissions, would need to decrease by 45% from 2010 levels, by 2030, to reach “net-zero” by 2050.

“This report gives policymakers and practitioners the information they need to make decisions that tackle climate change while considering local context and people’s needs. The next few years are probably the most important in our history,” said Debra Roberts, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II...

...Solar and storage are on the right path

The report identifies that solar PV and wind have experienced “dramatic” growth trajectories, and highlights the significant cost reduction of solar PV. Thus, the technology is considered a key driver and enabler of the 1.5°C target.

Furthermore, especially solar PV in combination with battery systems are lauded as a cheap, easy to use and flexible energy resource. The authors laud its versatility, citing 19 million installations in Bangladesh, to demonstrate how this technology could be installed with relative ease in low-income areas and is simple enough to be used by the masses.

Additionally, the IPCC sees that scientific advancements in solar PV made the technology viable for use in areas of low solar irradiation, such as north-western Europe.

Growth in storage technologies is also considered a key driver of this development. The panel considers the majority of installed storage capacity to fulfill the function of grid flexibility resources (GFR). Herein, the majority comprises pumped hydro with an installed capacity of 150 GW.

Though grid-connected battery storage comprises a mere 1.7 GW, the authors also recognize the technology’s enormous growth over the last years. They link the growth to cost reduction as a result of mass EV production in the last years. The report further establishes that currently, examined alternative storage technologies, other than lithium-ion, bear potential, but are outcompeted by lithium-ions cost advantage due to its high degree of commercial maturity.