Hi Quixote:

Like you, I have had experience with "averaging down" and I believe it has only been successful in about one time out of five. I am contemplating buying more AUM just because, as GWR and experts like Sprott point out, we would be buying metals in the ground at a small fraction of the present market price.

It seems to me that we need AUM to announce that they see either present or future pricing of silver in particular that will allow them to reopen their mine with an expectation that they will be able to operate profitably into the long term future. It would seem that that will require a silver price substantially higher than the present $15 range. Another problem for a stock like AUM is a lack of exposure in the market. There are hundreds of small company stocks competing for the attention of potential buyers so AUM, with a small float and good assets, would look attractive until the potential buyer realizes that their mine is shut in and they are not generating income.

So it seems to me that a good jump in the silver and gold prices with some sentiment that they will stay there for a while, coupled with an announcement by AUM that they will start operating again, could attract substantial interest and stock price appreciation. The dilemma we face is whether or when that announcement will come and if we can wait for that moment to buy more shares before (we hope) the world realizes what a good opportunity the low share price represents. At a paltry share volume of 10,000 a day on the TSX it doesn't give you a sense of urgency.