Re: Golden Minerals is a great buy but so few stepping up
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 07, 2016 01:48PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
It's hard for me to see, Minerals, that Golden Minerals will not participate in any 2016 rally for junior gold/silver stocks based on gold/silver moving higher. If this truly is a breakout year for gold/silver to resume the bullmarket, which I believe it will be, then for sure Golden will participate. I suspect managemet will continue to add ounces through drilling, maybe acquire property, try to control costs and maybe restart the mine production if conditions warrant although I wouldn't encourage this too much until the market really confirms the bull market has resumed since this has been closed down twice now based on constant declining gold/silver prices. It has been well docuneted that mines with high silver content need at least $20 silver and some smart people say $24 to really make the capital required to grow & prosper. The Golden plan called for a minimum of $14-$16 for the Sulphide mill and obviously it came out on the high end (above the high end actually as they could never quite get there due to capital restriction, timeline, etc.) we know the result they closed down again.
This is like a can't see the forest for trees situation, yes more dilution will impact the share price and reduce returns but this is better than not surviving for the coming resumption of the gold/silver bull market when ounces in the ground will once again rule the day for juniors. From my view the assets Golden Minerals has banked plus future properties will more than offset some dilution at what I expect will be higher prices due to gold/silver moving higher and much better sentiemtn and tome for junior companies.
Looking at it another way, I think very depressed Golden property asset base (Velardena, El Quevar, etc.) is a very good canddiate for a 100 times (based on Rick Rule hypothesis which is sound & historically accurate) move higher over the next 3-5 years sometime so even if another 20 million shares are out bringing the company to over 70 million shares the returns could be spectacular. Keep in mind that ECU alone had a market cap for a period of time of over $600 million plus El Quevar had a similar market cap at one time so Golden could be a Rick Rule $15 million to $1.5 billion market cap candidate as incredible as that seems today, BTW it has been equally incredible in the past on more than one occassion but we tend to forget this in the gloom & doom we all have experienced the last few years. So do the math and even with dilution should it occur the potential returns are fabulous from here.
My view is based mostly on ounces in the ground returning as primary driver of junior market cap evaluation and the 430 million silver eq. ounces at Velardena which can be easily put backup and grown substantially if the company gets back on an ounces track, upside on El Quevar ounces moving toward the 120 million silver eq. ounces which is very doable if drilling becomes a focus again plus good potential in a few of the acquired Mexican properties. Golden is in a very good place with what I still believe to be 2 company maker type deposits even though today it seems otherwise such is the state of the present junior market and for that matter senior gold/silver producer market as well and the whol;e resource sector period from iron ore to oil to copper.
The above is some of my forest for the trees narrative, let's see what happens.