Re: COT report released at 3:30PM today confirms funds suckered again by banksters
posted on
Jun 12, 2015 07:40PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Some legit questions and comments 99921, see my comments below. I think Turd is mostly correct and there is no confusion as the various trading approaches by the entities involved are quite different although I agree the outome seems always the same, the banksters win, at least the last couple years. It's called wash rinse, repeat process and the banks are good at it when they have what seems a willing partner for now.
It's the commercials (bullion banksters) game and they are making money at the expense of the tech funds who get run in and then out by the commercials ability to cap and move markets that the CME Crimex seeems to allow as commercila limits are not enforced nor paid attention too. This has been ongoing now since late 2102 to one degree or another and big time since the official spring 2013 takedowns in April & June. The commercials won't stop until the tech funds either figure it out and take them on at the highs of a rally forcing commercials to cover (something similar to this happened in spring/summer 2011) which they could do as there are many more funds than commercials or CFTC forces some compliance on position limits or risk management regs with a partial physical requirement.
Another option in our favour going forward would be a sentiment shift bringing in major gold silver buying due to currency issues, bond market stress, rate increases causing derivative stress, loss of central bank credilibilty, negative rates becoming more negative, investors looking for a non-correlated hedge with no counter party risk, more central bank gold buying, some kind of new BrettonWoods type accord to bring some paper currency stability back into system or even a major stock market correction that scares not just irritates investors, etc.
There are far more reasons for gold to go higher than lower in the coming years although if the major economies get back to normal interest rates (10 yr around 5%), significant salary growth, business expansion through investment, minimal wars or killing, great high quality job growth, solving pension plan issues & student debt in the US, minimal central bank interventions, lower debt to GDP ratios (40% shows a well run economy, 60% in recessions), etc. then gold will be quiet or maybe a little lower.
Some would argue that the until the FED & other central banks withdraw all accommodation, sell down balance sheet to levels prior to QE money printing, normal rates, there can be no way to properly value assets, assess risk or invest with confidence in future growth of economy. At present money bloated balance sheets from central bank printing, ZIRP/NIRP and stock buybacks make this the most phony stock bullmarket in history but for sure it has been a great run for some, mostly the 1%ers and the old adage about not fighting the Fed driven stock market surge has ruled the day with commodity prices severely depressed in all sectors.
BTW, some of the most successfull traders in gold/silver have been from the small spec category over the last couple years as they try to mimic the commercials timing, not the tech fund timing of shorting lows or buying highs, using layered buys and sells going both long and short. But this group does 10 to 50 contracts not big numbers.
A $17 dollar price will be just acceptable for Golden Minerals given their forecast of around $12 silver costs, it would keep production moving forward although not provide a great outlook but non of us invested here expect a silver price to remain this low.
Gold sentiment will shift to the bull side at some point soon as the pendulum always swings in markets, it has always been so.