Re: Webcast (15:29) Precious Meatals Summit Colorado 9/19/2013
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 24, 2013 01:57PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Not sure what happened to the webcast Caseyc but I watched it 3 times a few days ago and sent this short review of my thoughts on the presentation to a few people who were curious of my view. I wasn't going to post this but since you missed the presentation and have always been a reasonable contributor to this site I am putting these comments up. I preface this by acknowledging that some have been critical of Clevenger and his style and for sure there are legit reasons for this but I tried to focus on content in my review and to try and draw some conclusions. In the end it will come down to execution as it always does.
I reviewed the Clevenger presentation & here are some brief thoughts I sent to a few people who had expressed some interest:
I watched it a few minutes ago and it wasn’t as bad as I was expecting given the comments. For sure he is a little flippant and blames his ills on ECU past operational issues but even ECU was changing some of these things because they knew they had to be changed. My issue is the things they are doing took 2 years to do, if they had done these things 1.5 years ago we would be far better off and many of the actions were already identified by ECU, this smacks of poor operational management, maybe they realize the error of their ways now.
He highlights the oxide mill is rated for 800 tpd, which is good, and they are finally actively pursuing alternative feed which is even better. They are going to drill Los Azules which historically had 10 g/t gold over 2 metre vein when mined down to the water line which to me is a very high priority target with way above average potential for success.
He made very clear how conservative the recent resource estimate was at Velardena and demonstrated that the M&I is stable even though they have been actively mining, this doesn’t negate how stupid it was to use a small local firm (CAM) to mess around with a world class firm like Micon work and what I considered a good protocol consistent with or even above Mexican standards used by many other miners in Mexico.
He strongly emphasized the move to increase miner efficiency at the face which of course the new ramp makes very possible meaning they couldn’t do this without the new ramp. The new modified long hole stoping mining method should work nicely in Santa Juana, again only doable because of the new ramp. I should note that this type of mining method is something Clevenger and crew have much more experience with as opposed to various narrow vein mining methods so this enhances the potential for successful operations. This under $20 dollar silver all in cost basis is very encouraging to me (this would be in the lower end of present silver producers) as is the work associated with whether the gold is mostly iron pyrite bound as opposed to mostly arseno-pyrite bound, if this proves to be true it makes a major difference that can be dealt with and should prove more profitable for gold payables. BTW, the company knows both autoclaving and roasting will work on the gold-pyrite con (prior ECU management proved this) but at 330 tpd sulphide mill rating the costs are prohibitive, this would however change dramatically if the sulphide processing was increased to a minimum 1500 tpd as it should be.
I was very intrigued by his public statements about El Quevar and the clear demonstration about high grade (400 g/t) holes outside the present resource calculation plus the north-western end info about impossible to assess the resource, due to rock conditions in the holes drilled, as this was also very high grade stuff (he talked multiple kilos over multiple metres). It seems to me that the resource calculation for El Quevar is very under stated as is its potential to be a mine.
I note his comment referencing now having a geo who puts boots on the ground makes a difference, it’s my understanding that Warren Rehn is a hard worker, quite field active and a quick learner. My limited time spent with him gave me a strong positive impression and others I know have spoken highly of his work, this could bode well for the future. I also know he wants to drill deep under Santa Juana mine as I am confident it will not disappoint going forward given the info known to date.
The company market cap is now down to cash plus a fire sale price on the 2 mills and nothing for the resource or extensive mine development or of course any good will. Clevenger stated they are fully funded for next year which also is a positive as it re-enforces the belief the new mining plan is not only viable but will be profitable. If you think silver is going higher from here then Golden Minerals makes a great speculative investment because its market cap has been decimated, shareholder sentiment can’t get worse and presently getting about zero value for ounces in the ground. As unbelievable as it sounds or seems, this is where we are, this type of scenario or setup is very rare but if silver gets and stays above $25 and the company executes this revised mine plan, the stock is going higher, much higher.