Gold Lending Rates Drop Further On Supply Concerns

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/19/2013 - 07:58

Gold traded near a two-month high after holdings in the largest ETP posted the first weekly expansion this year and markets digested the very robust global physical demand data reported last week . Demand from China and India is projected to to soar to 1,000 tonnes each in 2013 and mixed U.S. data has boosted gold’s safe haven appeal. Gold forward offered rates (GOFO), remain negative and are becoming more negative. This shows that physical demand is leading to supply issues in the highly leveraged LBMA gold market. GOFO rates are those which contributors may use to lend gold on a swap for dollars, according to the London Bullion Market Association and the negative gold interest rates show a preference to own gold over dollars by bullion banks. Negative 1, 2 and 3 month GOFO rates mean that bullion banks lent their customers, including other bullion banks, gold to obtain a positive return, thereby increasing the "paper" gold supply. Some may now may be struggling to get their gold back which may explain the significant decline in COMEX gold holdings of certain bullion banks (see commentary). This is creating significant supply demand issues in the physical gold market which should lead to higher gold prices.