This may be a first. Never in the history of my study of cycles has Gold ever been trashed at the opening of a new up cycle. In recent years there are many examples where tptb manages to gently nudge the POG in the opposite direction of the prevailing cycle, but in the case of every up cycle, there was at the very least a gain on the upside at the cycle turn date. Not this time. My takeaway from this extreme opposing momentum is the Gold cycle model is not broken but rather reflects the serious dichotomy between paper and physical price discovery mechanisms - a reflection of general malaise due to too much QE propping up "Derivative Mountain." It's difficult to see if you don't know where to look but "hint-hint" the huge raid on Crimex Gold does support the notion Gold is in a huge up-cycle.

Expanding on these thoughts perhaps the infamous "Another" had it right all those years ago and his vision of how the paper and physical markets would diverge at the moment before the Crimex went the way of the Dodo bird while increasingly scarce bullion heads into the multi-thou$and$ per ounce. Under that scenario, legitimate investors would jettison their futures contracts driving down the paper POG into a death spiral while the left hand cleaned out the Crimex depositories, socking away bullion into private vaulting facilities.

Flash forward to today and in the space of barely 4-5 months nearly HALF of Crimex Gold has been withdrawn or is scheduled for delivery. Is the jig up? Has tptb lost it's ability to respond and stem the tide of gold exiting "the system"? Is the financial world poised on the brink of another "default" ala Nixon 1971?

At the end of the day Sinclair's recent strong counsel to exit the system may be spot on if "this is it and it is now." If the paper market in gold doesn't unfold precisely as he's predicted (ie. Crimex quickly morphs into a cash market), so what? Generally speaking if the general outcome for all us poor bastards is the same at the end-game (a major financial calamity engulfs the world leaving everything, including the Crimex, a smoking heap), then Uncle Jim has given us sound advice to protect ourselves. Everything else is nit-picking at the end of the day.