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Message: Norcini commentary
Friday, March 8, 2013
Gold Chart plus Comments
I am pressed for time right now but wanted to get some charting out there for the readers. I apologize for the lack of "stuff" this week but a trader's life can be busy at times.
As those who have been regular readers of this site know quite well by now, I have been very cautious in regards to gold for some time now. When a market continues to violate one chart support level after another, it is never a bullish sign, no matter what all the self-proclaimed experts are pontificating whether it be some backwardation nonsense chatter or "bullish COT" reports.
I have said it before and will say it again, speculators, particularly the large ones, aka, hedge funds, are what drive markets nowadays. When they are selling, it is never bullish. The only time it is bullish is when they are loading up on the short side and a market is not breaking down through support levels.
We might have just reached that point. I want to emphasize, "might" because I need some further confirmation from the price action. What I am seeing however is a market that keeps entering a zone that I have marked, "STRONG BUYING ZONE" and every time that it does, it does not stay in that zone for more than three hours time.
Note the following 60 minute chart and you can see that the moves lower into this zone generate high volume buying in which price tends to spike off of the worst levels rather than closing each bar down on the lows. That is an indication of heavy buying by some very strong hands.
We have had three occasions now since the first of this month that this level has held rock solid. it is evident that the bears have been unable thus far to break the price down through the bottom of this zone.
What I want to see to feel more confident is an upside breach of the top of this trading range that REMAINS ABOVE this level for at least 4-6 hours, preferably a day. I believe that if this occurs, we will begin to see some of these hedge funds start to cover.
If gold can get back above $1600, it will suggest that a bottom is in. The flip side is of course if this support level gives way. Let's hope it does not.
One last thing, gold was VERY FIRM today in terms of nearly EVERY SINGLE MAJOR CURRENCY. Whether it was Yen gold, Euro gold, Sterling Gold, Swissie Gold and even Aussie Gold and Loonie Gold, the metal was higher even as the US Dollar was sharply higher. That is very noteworthy. In the past I have spoken to the idea that if gold is moving higher in terms of most of the other major currencies besides the Dollar, the chances of the bears breaking it down sharply in US Dollar terms is greatly diminished. The opposite of course holds true; if the metal is higher in US Dollar terms only while it is moving lower in terms of these other majors, the rally is not going to last much longer.
What today's move is signaling is that gold is trading as a currency again and not so much as a Dollar related issue. Again, I would like to see additional confirmation of this besides just in the Yen (Yen Gold is on a tear higher). It is still a fact that regardless of talk about early cessation of the QE3 and QE4 programs, many of the Western Central Banks, and I am including Japan here in that sense, are employing their own versions of QE or have adopted monetary easing policies. While speculators are busy being enamoured of stocks, it is not being lost on gold as to what these Central Bankers are all doing to their currencies. Never in the history of mankind has so much paper currency been created simultaneously. It is a wonder that we are already not using the stuff to heat our houses instead of wood!
Let's see what next week brings us. At least the HUI has stopped going down for now!
As those who have been regular readers of this site know quite well by now, I have been very cautious in regards to gold for some time now. When a market continues to violate one chart support level after another, it is never a bullish sign, no matter what all the self-proclaimed experts are pontificating whether it be some backwardation nonsense chatter or "bullish COT" reports.
I have said it before and will say it again, speculators, particularly the large ones, aka, hedge funds, are what drive markets nowadays. When they are selling, it is never bullish. The only time it is bullish is when they are loading up on the short side and a market is not breaking down through support levels.
We might have just reached that point. I want to emphasize, "might" because I need some further confirmation from the price action. What I am seeing however is a market that keeps entering a zone that I have marked, "STRONG BUYING ZONE" and every time that it does, it does not stay in that zone for more than three hours time.
Note the following 60 minute chart and you can see that the moves lower into this zone generate high volume buying in which price tends to spike off of the worst levels rather than closing each bar down on the lows. That is an indication of heavy buying by some very strong hands.
We have had three occasions now since the first of this month that this level has held rock solid. it is evident that the bears have been unable thus far to break the price down through the bottom of this zone.
What I want to see to feel more confident is an upside breach of the top of this trading range that REMAINS ABOVE this level for at least 4-6 hours, preferably a day. I believe that if this occurs, we will begin to see some of these hedge funds start to cover.
If gold can get back above $1600, it will suggest that a bottom is in. The flip side is of course if this support level gives way. Let's hope it does not.
One last thing, gold was VERY FIRM today in terms of nearly EVERY SINGLE MAJOR CURRENCY. Whether it was Yen gold, Euro gold, Sterling Gold, Swissie Gold and even Aussie Gold and Loonie Gold, the metal was higher even as the US Dollar was sharply higher. That is very noteworthy. In the past I have spoken to the idea that if gold is moving higher in terms of most of the other major currencies besides the Dollar, the chances of the bears breaking it down sharply in US Dollar terms is greatly diminished. The opposite of course holds true; if the metal is higher in US Dollar terms only while it is moving lower in terms of these other majors, the rally is not going to last much longer.
What today's move is signaling is that gold is trading as a currency again and not so much as a Dollar related issue. Again, I would like to see additional confirmation of this besides just in the Yen (Yen Gold is on a tear higher). It is still a fact that regardless of talk about early cessation of the QE3 and QE4 programs, many of the Western Central Banks, and I am including Japan here in that sense, are employing their own versions of QE or have adopted monetary easing policies. While speculators are busy being enamoured of stocks, it is not being lost on gold as to what these Central Bankers are all doing to their currencies. Never in the history of mankind has so much paper currency been created simultaneously. It is a wonder that we are already not using the stuff to heat our houses instead of wood!
Let's see what next week brings us. At least the HUI has stopped going down for now!
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=32301731&l=0&r=0&s=FR&t=LIST#RRjccw7ZjgfcPb6q.99
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