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Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Message: from Midas report tonight
As mentioned recently, my friend Mahendra (who attended the New Orleans Investment Conference) called the exact bottom of the gold market in 2000 to the day. Will he be right again? From PM…
Hey Bill. just a quick reminder that today was the date that Mahendra stated a while back on you’re site(you posted a link) that would mark the bottom and start of the next move up for silver. I think he stated that ag would move to $68. Will be fun to follow this.
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Dave from Denver…
"based on last night's "ex-duty" premiums in India, India was buying with both hands." …
I may be a little premature
but I'm calling a bottom in this price correction based on several tried and true contrarian indicators. The most significant indicator is the number of seasoned and unseasoned metals market participants who have either bailed on their positions or put on fear hedges. Just yesterday a long time silver futures trader I know, who recently began trading the mining stocks and who goes by fairly sophisticated technical signals, announced she had bailed on her stock positions on Wed. Another fellow I know announced that he had hedged his bullion with puts on GLD. Quite frankly, I can see getting scared out of the miners, but it's clearly late in the game to be buying puts on gold and he clearly does not have the access to information which shows that India has been buying gold in the low 1700's and China buys hard anytime gold below $1700. If you are going to hedge positions, you need to do it BEFORE the top is in, otherwise the drop happens so quickly you miss at least half the move before you capitulate and hedge near the bottom - been there, done that.
Finally, I'm getting several comments on my blog of newer gold market players who are pissed off, taking shots at legends like Embry and Turk and dumping their positions. This is usually a perfect indicator that a bottom is near. I usually don't post most of these comments because they are abusive and profanity-laced, but if you're curious at a sampling, I posted one from last night along with my response - it's the second one from the bottom from "anonymous" -
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2012/11/in-end-more-than-freedom-they-wanted.
html?showComment=1353077438075#c505519145253886498
Dave with an encore… More bullish signals Part of the action this week in metals has been influenced by it being the "roll" period, when the front month longs either have to sell, take delivery or roll to the next front-month. Usually during the roll period the open interest declines and the cartel uses this as an opportunity to hit the market. Yesterday, however, was different. Yesterday was an unusually large roll from Dec gold to Feb gold, 17,212 dropped from Dec but 17,281 added to Feb. In addition, another 1,330 added to June gold. A big drop from the front month accompanied by an outright increase is rare - beyond my recollection when the drop from the current front month is this large.
Same deal in silver. 4,268 silver carts dropped from Dec and 5,386 added to March, silver's next front month. The silver o/i increased to 1,263. The open interest in silver is 145k. As Dan Norcini pointed out the other day, something different is occurring right now. Despite the big cartel-led sell-off in silver over the past 6 weeks, the silver open interest has persisted in the 140k area. Historically the o/i has been liquidated down to 100k or less in pullbacks like this. Furthermore, for those intimidated by the 140k o/i, my partner pointed out that the high in open interest since we've been keeping track of it - going back to around 2003, was 189,151 back on 2/19/2008 with silver at $17.53. That leaves a lot of room for the specs to add longs and drive the price a lot higher.
So before anyone gets worried about what seems to be high open interest in silver and that big COT liquidation run is coming, they better examine the facts. I really get sick and tired of all of the misinformation between tossed around, especially by gold/silver site aggregators, bloggers and blog commentators. As I said earlier, I'm not officially saying this pullback is over, but it sure is starting to smell like it could be...
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