Re: some Midas commentary related to the subject here today
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 06, 2012 07:52PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Let me add that the majority of the selling in Golden Minerals post the late September financing would have not happened had October been a decent month for precious metal equities and gold/silver. This down month encouraged selling by those hedge funds who bought the issue expecting gold/silver were in an up move as did most of us here.
Keep in mind that those who bought the issue would place a value on the half warrant which in effect allows them to sell some of the issue at a loss and still maintain the same cost basis because they hold the warrant and in an October down cycle market for precious metal equities this is compounded. The net effect is they sell some of the shares they purchased, get a loss against gains elsewhere and carry the asset on the books at the same value due to the modelled value of the warrant (my guess is the warrant is worth likely about $1.50 by their model and this means they can sell quite a bit lower and still not lose on the books). This is a common hegde fund tactic in a short term declining market when they are bullish the medium to longer term. The best case scenario for Golden Minerals existing shareholders was an up month in gold/silver market for October which would have quickly seen the stock move higher with minimal selling from those funds who purchased the financing stock. I would even guess those funds would have preferred that outcome but when it didn't materialize they had the warrants to fall back on and reduce their risk investment.
Let's also recognize that the short term daily algo traders and shorts accentuated this move down to their profit gain and it will be at the expense of anyone who would gave them their stock when the up move likely occurs shortly.
I suspect when this move higher is confirmed that these same funds will be back buying progressively more aggressively provided the company produces the results expected. The market is a complex animal and even moreso now than ever before but I still believe that fundamentals will win out in the end and serious money will be made in gold/silver and precious metal equities especially successful emerging producers and even moreso those with a significant silver component and sizeable resource. And I'm positioned this way even with the recent pain providing me some very real frustration and mental capital.