Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Oct 24, 2012 10:28AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Der Spiegel: Federal Auditors Call For Inventory of German Gold Reserves
"We need to see major capitulation by the speculative longs. This hasn't happened as of yet."
The gold price was down about five bucks by the time that London opened at 8:00 a.m. BST yesterday morning...and that's when the selling pressure got more serious. Most of the damage was done by shortly before lunch in London...and the gold price more or less traded sideways for the remainder of the day.
The low price tick...$1,703.10 spot...came about an hour after the Comex close. Gold finished the Tuesday session at $1,707.70 spot...down $21.80 on the day. Despite the fact that the gold price finished well below its 50-day moving average, the volume was only moderate at best...163,000 contracts.
The silver price got sold off about two bits in the Far East trading session on their Tuesday but, like gold, the real selling pressure didn't begin until London began trading. By the noon BST silver fix, the low was in, in London.
From there, silver rallied until the 9:30 a.m. Eastern open of the New York equity markets...and it was all down hill from there to silver's double spike low of the day, which came between 2:30 and 3:00 p.m. in electronic trading. The price recovered a bit into the close. Kitco recorded the low tick at $31.47 spot. Silver had an intraday price move of just over 3 percent.
Silver finished the Tuesday session at $31.67 spot...down 78 cents from Monday. And, like gold, silver got blasted below its 50-day moving average as well, but the volume traded was a meager-looking 43,500 contracts...give or take a few hundred. By the way, that spike in price just before noon in Hong Kong this morning, just before midnight New York time last night, was probably a data error of some kind...and if it was, I would think that Kitco would correct that sometime today
Here's the New York Silver Spot [Bid] chart on its own, so you can see that double bottom I was speaking of a couple of paragraphs above. The move was too fast for the daily chart to pick up.
Neither platinum nor palladium were spared yesterday, either. As a matter of fact, they were roughed up pretty good...especially palladium.
Gold finished down 1.26%....silver closed down 2.40%...platinum finished down 2.37%...and platinum got smacked for 4.97%.
The dollar index opened at 79.56...and that was its low of the day, as it began to move sharply higher in another attempt to break above the 80.00 mark. The first attempt around 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, failed...as did every subsequent attempt. The high tick was 80.05 around 11:30 a.m. Eastern...and after that, the index slid quietly below the 80.00 mark and traded mostly sideways into the close. The index finished at 79.91...up 35 basis points.
It's a real stretch to fit yesterday's gold price action into what the dollar index was doing. I tried from several angles...and nothing worked...except for four hours worth of price declines in London as the dollar index rallied. That was pretty much it.
Not too many shades of gray in the gold stocks yesterday. They gapped down and barely moved for the rest of the trading session...and the HUI closed on its absolute low of the day...down 2.80%.
The silver stocks got pounded pretty good, although there were a number of green arrows here and there amongst the junior producers that I own. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 3.49%.
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The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that zero gold and 13 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow.
There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV on Tuesday.
The U.S. Mint had its second sales report in as many days. They sold 5,000 ounces of gold eagles...1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 135,000 silver eagles.
There was very little activity reported at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday. They reported receiving no silver at all...and shipped only 32,856 troy ounces of the stuff out the door.
Yesterday I had a huge pile of stories, but today it's just the opposite, as I don't have a lot for you. And as is always the case when that happen, I'm happy about that.
This 15:02 video from CNBC on Monday features the good doctor all on his own. So if you are a Marc Faber fan...this is a must watch. I thank reader Bill Busser for our first story of the day...and the link to the youtube.com video is here.
Prompted by Monday night's final debate of the major-party presidential candidates, the New York Sun has the explosive insight of the day:
"If Mr. Obama comprehends how bad it is for Iran that its currency has shed 80 percent of its value, why doesn't he comprehend that about a dollar that has lost 50 percent of its value under his presidency alone? The point seemed to go right by Mr. Romney. Gee, willikers, what is it going to take to get the Republican candidate to make an issue of the collapse of the dollar?"
I borrowed the preamble from Chris Powell, which was embedded in his GATA release on this yesterday. The editorial is a must read...and is posted on the nysun.com Internet site...and the link is here.
Across the nation’s Corn Belt, even as the worst drought in more than 50 years has destroyed what was expected to be a record corn crop and reduced yields to their lowest level in 17 years, farmland prices have continued to rise. From Nebraska to Illinois, farmers seeking more land to plant and outside investors looking for a better long-term investment than stocks and bonds continue to buy farmland, taking advantage of low interest rates.
And despite a few warnings from bankers, the farmland boom shows no signs of slowing. Almost every year since 2005, except during the start of the recession in 2008, agriculture land prices have posted double-digit gains. In the same period, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has had double-digit gains in only three of those years.
Number one farm land selling for $10,600 the acre! Wow! This 2-page story was originally posted over at The Wall Street Journal yesterday...but was soon picked up by CNBC...and that's the version you see here.
I was born and raised on the prairies of western Canada...and as they say, "you can take the boy out of the country, but you can never take the country out of the boy." This story is a case in point. I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sharing it with us...and the link is here.
In yesterday's column, I posted a rather long speech that Doug gave in San Diego about ten days ago...and here he is again as a Monday guest with Lauren Lyster on Capital Account. Of course Doug is never one to pull punches nor gild lilies...and he doesn't do it here, either.
I've already watched/listened to it...and it's definitely worth your time if you have it. The link to the youtube.com video is here.
No doubt we can find some elegant formula to paper over the split. As my friend Daniel Hannan puts it, we could devise a Swiss arrangement while pretending that we are still EU members. No point frightening the horses.
For those readers who missed it, the UK is preparing to pull out of almost all areas of "Justice and Home Affairs", the so-called Pillar III of EU jurisdiction. (Pillar I is the single market, and Pillar II is foreign affairs)
This is revolutionary. We are withdrawing from 130 directives, covering everything from the European Arrest Warrant, the European Public Prosecutor, to the European justice department (Eurojust).
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is on fire...and his blog from yesterday, posted at the telegraph.co.uk Internet site, is definitely worth reading. I thank Roy Stephens for sending it...and the link is here.
Forget black swans, Nigel Farage is rapidly turning himself into the black sheep of the EU Parliament with his constant stream of truthiness and honest pragmatism. It seems the broadly nodding-donkeys that fill the chamber remain cognitively dissonant to any and everything in the real world - hanging instead on the next sound from Van Rompuy or Barroso on how well things are going, or how the crisis is 'almost' over.
This brief story, along with the embedded 3:30 minute video clip, was posted on the Zero Hedge website yesterday afternoon Eastern time. It's more than worth your time, if you have it...and I thank Marshall Angeles for sharing it with us. The link is here.
In a taxi from the airport, down a rollercoaster road of potholes and speed bumps, we drive past white-walled villas draped in bougainvillea. At the quayside of the old harbour, traditional fish restaurants continue to do steady business, as tourists gather by the castle to watch a magnificent sunset. Behind this façade of familiarity, however, the comings and goings have been so dramatic that many in Cyprus are struggling to understand what has happened to them. Important features of local life have, literally, disappeared – and I'm not talking just about thousands of feral cats that used to reside here.
This island, once a magnet for money, is perilously close to running out of cash. Standard & Poor's, the ratings agency, has downgraded Cyprus twice since the beginning of August, citing "deteriorating domestic credit conditions and eroding consumer and investor confidence".
Things are so bad that some individuals, owed money by the government for appropriation of their land, have begun sending in the bailiffs to seize state assets. Only last week, seven vehicles owned by various departments, including the land registry, were grabbed and whisked away for auction.
I have mentioned the looming financial crisis in Cyprus a number of times over the last six months...and now things are coming to a head over there. This story from The Telegraph appeared early Monday evening BST...and for those who know little or nothing about Cyprus...which is just about everyone, including this writer...I consider it a must read. I found this story all by myself...and the link is here.
Earthquake experts worldwide expressed shock at the manslaughter convictions of six Italian scientists who failed to predict the deadly L'Aquila quake, warning that the decision could severely harm future research.
Two scientists resigned their posts with the government's disaster preparedness agency Tuesday after a court in L'Aquila sentenced six scientists and a government official to six years in prison. The court ruled Monday that the scientists failed to accurately communicate the risk of the 2009 quake, which killed more than 300 people.
Luciano Maiani, the physicist who led the National Commission for the Prediction and Prevention of Major Risks, resigned in protest of the verdict Tuesday afternoon, Italy's Civil Protection Agency announced.
This story is from the top drawer of the "You can't make this stuff up" filing cabinet. My professional involvement with seismology, although brief, began back in 1967...and I've had an unwavering interest in it ever since. For all you earth sciences junkies, this is a must read for sure. I was saving this for Saturday, but since it's a slow news day, here it is now. It was posted on the cnn.com Internet site yesterday...and I thank Marshall Angeles for his second offering in today's column. The link is here.
A long and bitter rivalry between Iran’s president and an influential band of brothers in the political hierarchy exploded into the open on Monday, signaling new fractures in the facade of unity as the country confronts worsening economic conditions and isolation over the disputed Iranian nuclear program.
In a letter published by Iranian news sites, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused the head of the powerful judiciary, Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani, of protecting “certain individuals” from prosecution for economic corruption who are widely understood to be high officials, including Ayatollah Larijani’s oldest brother.
Mr. Ahmadinejad also demanded access to Tehran’s Evin prison, to visit one of his aides who has been held for nearly a month. In order to build his case, Mr. Ahmadinejad referred to a range of articles in the Iranian Constitution that explain the powers of the president.
The accusation escalated a simmering conflict between Mr. Ahmadinejad and opponents among influential clerics, parliamentarians and commanders. It followed a decision announced on Sunday by Iran’s judiciary to deny Mr. Ahmadinejad access to the prison — a humiliating slap at the president’s authority.
This 2-page story showed up in The New York Times sometime on Monday...and I thank Roy Stephens for his second offering of the day. The link is here.
The first two blogs are with Dr. Stephen Leeb. The first is headlined "Household Name From Top Hedge Fund Caught Manipulating"....and the second is entitled "People Are Getting Scared and Liquidating & Germany's Gold". The last one is with Richard Russell...and it bears the title "The Bear is Angry & Bernanke Wants Out".
Gold Fields Ltd., the world’s fourth-biggest gold producer, said it fired 8,500 striking workers at its KDC East mine in South Africa after they failed to heed an ultimatum to return to work.
The fired workers can appeal, Willie Jacobsz, a company spokesman, said in a phone interview today.
Illegal mining strikes began in South Africa at Lonmin Plc’s Marikana platinum mine on Aug. 10 and have spread to gold, iron ore and chrome mines as workers bypassed labor unions to demand higher pay.
This 3-paragraph story showed up on Bloomberg yesterday morning...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for digging it up on our behalf. The link to the hard copy is here.
To see one of Iran's financial lifelines at work, pay a visit to Istanbul's Ataturk International Airport and find a gate for a flight to Dubai.
Couriers carrying millions of dollars worth of gold bullion in their luggage have been flying from Istanbul to Dubai, where the gold is shipped on to Iran, according to industry sources with knowledge of the business.
The sums involved are enormous. Official Turkish trade data suggests nearly $2 billion worth of gold was sent to Dubai on behalf of Iranian buyers in August. The shipments help Tehran manage its finances in the face of Western financial sanctions.
Gold is money! I found this Reuters story in a GATA dispatch yesterday...and it's an absolute must read in my opinion. The link is here.
After members of Parliament were blocked in their attempt to inspect the gold of the Bundesbank stored at the Banque de France in Paris, leading economists and politicians are calling to transfer the German gold to Germany. "We'd prefer it to be kept in Germany," Philipp Missfelder, CDU politician, told Die Welt.
Together with his colleague Marco Wanderwitz from his parliamentary group, Missfelder wanted to view the extensive German gold stocks on site. In a letter Bundesbank Board Member Carl-Ludwig Thiele informed them that the French central bank does not have appropriate premises for visits. The same applies to the Bank of England in London.
"The response by the Bundesbank has made us even more suspicious. This secrecy is not good," Missfelder told Die Welt. Dozens of letters have gone between him and Bundesbank until this final cancelation of his visits to the Bank de France and Bank of England vaults.
The rest of the English translation of this Die Welt story from Germany on Monday is contained in this GATA release...which I consider a must read as well. The link is here.
For study by our German-speaking friends, GATA has obtained a copy of the report of the German Federal Court of Auditors about the Bundesbank's negligent custodianship of the German national gold reserves. The report well may contain important details that were not included in yesterday's Associated Press story...and we would be grateful to learn of any such details.
This short piece, plus all the relevant links, are posted in this short GATA release from yesterday...and the link is here.
Germany owns the world's the second largest gold reserves, nearly 3,400 tons. Allegedly, that is.
In fact, the stored gold has never been checked for authenticity and weight. Now the Federal Court of Auditors has urged the Bundesbank to investigate the gold stocks abroad on a regular basis.
Here's another English translation of a story that appeared on the German website Der Spiegel on Monday...and the link to this absolute must read GATA release is here.
The Bundesbank disagrees with Germany's Audit Court that the central bank should take stock of its gold holdings outside Germany.
"The Bundesbank and the Federal Court of Auditors have different opinions" on the matter, the Frankfurt-based Bundesbank said in a statement posted on its website today. The foreign central banks that hold gold on the Bundesbank's behalf verify the holdings annually and "there are no doubts about the integrity, reputation, and safety of these foreign depositories," it said.
The Bundesbank manages Germany's gold reserves, which amounted to 3,396 tons as of Dec. 21, 2011. The gold hoard is kept at central bank vaults in Frankfurt, New York, Paris, and London. The Federal Court of Auditors yesterday called on the Bundesbank to physically take stock of its gold holdings outside Germany because "they've never been assessed."
I found this Bloomberg story embedded in a GATA release yesterday...and it's worth reading as well. The link is here.
This 4-page commentary by Jeff Nielson of Bullion Bulls Canada was posted on thestreet.com Internet site on Monday afternoon Eastern time...and I thank Elliot Simon for sending it along. The link is here.
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I offer my opponents a bargain: if they will stop telling lies about us, I will stop telling the truth about them. ~ Adlai Stevenson, 1952 campaign speech
It was just another day in the continuing sell-off cycle...as JPMorgan et al continue to engineer the price of all the precious metals lower...forcing technical funds and small traders to liquidate long positions, as sell stops got hit. It's the same old, same old.
But as I mentioned in this space yesterday...and in my commentary on gold and silver at the top of this page...the volumes have not been very high, despite the fact that the 50-day moving averages have been taken out with a vengeance in both metals. According to Ted Butler...and I'm not going to disagree with him...that means there is still a long way to go before the final bottom is in...and we need to see major capitulation by the speculative longs. This hasn't happened as of yet.
In order for that to happen, the 200-day moving averages would have to fall...and as I mentioned on Saturday, the rate "da boyz" are going, the clean out could be done by the end of this week.
Here are the 6-month gold and silver charts. These will give you an indication of just how much lower gold and silver prices would have to 'fall' to get that kind of volume...and a bottom of some sort.
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Just eye-balling the charts, JPMorgan et al would have to engineer gold down more than $50...and silver down a dollar or more to get the bottom they're looking for. But can they, or will they? I don't know for sure, but that's certainly the direction they're heading.
It's worth noting that the Relative Strength Indicators [RSIs] in both metals are fast approaching oversold...but if you glance back to May on these charts, you can see that we can also remain massively oversold for quite a while as well.
Here's an interesting chart. It's the 30-day dollar index. If you check the two charts above, you'll see that the 'correction' in gold and silver began about October 7th...and during that time, the dollar has made many unsuccessful attempt break above, or close above, the 80.00 level. All have met with failure.
I've always maintained that a meaningful correction in gold and silver would be accompanied by a 'manufactured' rally in the dollar index. Well, I've been dead wrong about that up to this point...as the dollar has done zip since October 7th...and gold and silver are down $90 and $3.50 respectively. So when everyone talks about the co-relation between the dollar and the gold price, it ain't always true...as "da boyz" can have their way with the precious metal prices anytime they wish...but it's always easier if accompanied by a dollar rally that they can hide behind...manufactured or otherwise.
While I'm at it, here are the 6-month charts for platinum and palladium as well. As bad as it's been for gold and silver...the other two white metals have really been taken out to the woodshed by JPMorgan Chase et al. I'm hoping that the gold and silver charts don't end up looking like that before this engineered price decline breaths its last.
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Yesterday, at the 1:30 p.m. Eastern time close of Comex trading, was the cut-off for Friday's Commitment of Traders Report. I'm expecting another decline in the Commercial net short position in gold...and hopefully there will be some decline in silver's Commercial net short position as well, as there was no reported change last week...and as I've already pointed out, silver is down a hefty $3.50 from its early October high.
Both gold and silver managed to rally a bit during early trading in the Far East, but that didn't last too long...however both metals are still up a hair in early London trading. The dollar index, which had been doing nothing during Far East trading, suddenly caught a bid shortly after the London open...and is now above the 80.00 mark. Volumes in both metals are nothing out of the ordinary for this time of day.
Bernanke & Co. say something later today...and we'll see how that moves the markets. I'll guess that the dollar index will rise sharply...and the precious metals will get hit hard. You'll note that I didn't bet any money on this outcome...despite the 'surprise' dollar index rally in early London trading...up 17 basis points as I hit the 'send' button at 5:20 a.m. Eastern time.
That's more than enough for today...and I'll see you here tomorrow.