Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Oct 06, 2012 11:13AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Triffin's Dilemma...and the End of U.S. Dollar Hegemony
"That's not the pressing issue at the moment. It's the obscene, grotesque and utterly dangerous situation that exists in the silver market"
The gold price didn't do much in either the Far East or London trading yesterday...and the gold price was basically back to unchanged by the 8:30 a.m. Eastern time jobs number release.
The gold price got hit for ten bucks immediately...recovered a bit...and then shortly after 10:30 a.m. the price headed lower once again, hitting what looked like its low of the day shortly after 3:00 p.m. in electronic trading. From that point, the gold price recovered a bit during the next hour, before trading sideways into the close.
The actual low price tick [$1,771.70 spot according to Kitco] came at 8:45 a.m. Eastern, even though it doesn't show up on either Kitco chart below. Only the 1-minute tick chart [courtesy of Nick Laird] shows the absolute low.
Gold closed the Friday trading session at $1,781.30 spot...down $9.00 from Thursday. Net volume was pretty heavy at 166,000 contracts.
Although it doesn't show it on the Kitco chart below...but it did at one time during the Friday trading session...the silver price got absolutely crushed at the release of the jobs numbers.
According to Kitco, the low price tick around the 8:30-8:45 a.m. price smash, was recorded as $34.19 spot at 8:45 a.m. Eastern time. But sometime during the day, Kitco tampered with both of their silver charts to show that almost nothing happened during that time period...but Nick Laird's 1-minute tick chart shows otherwise.
Why Kitco would do this without any explanation, is beyond me. However, I know that the company...although very reputable...is strong with the dark side of The Force.
After the initial smash, the silver price followed the same general path that the gold price did...with the low price tick in electronic trading coming at the same time as gold's...before rallying a bit into the close.
Silver closed at $34.51 spot...down 46 cents on the day...but the intraday price move was over 90 cents. Volume was decent, but not monstrous, as 44,000 contracts changed hands.
As a point of interest, here's what the Kitco silver chart looked like shortly after the engineered price decline...and before they massaged it to look like the Kitco silver chart above. I borrowed this chart from a posting over at silverdoctors.com that West Virginia reader Elliot Simon sent me last night.
The dollar index, which opened at 79.36...was up 5 basis points by 8:30 a.m. in New York. Two hours later, it was at 79.13...which was its low tick of the day. From that low, such as it was, the index recovered almost all of its gains, closing down only 3 basis points from its Thursday close.
To hang all of the precious metals price action during the New York trading session on this little blip in the dollar index would be pushing the bounds of credulity to its limits.
Although opening in the red, the gold stocks rallied until the gold price rolled over at 10:30 a.m. Eastern...and the precise moment that the dollar index turned upwards. How cute is that? From there, the gold stocks drifted lower until the 3:15 p.m. gold rally...and closed slightly off their lows. The HUI finished down 0.93%.
It was no surprise that the silver stocks got sold off as well but, considering the damage done to the silver price, the decline was pretty mild...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down only 1.37%.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 80 gold and 28 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday. It was Jefferies and ABN Amro as the only two short/issuers...and JPMorgan and the Bank of Nova Scotia as the only long/stoppers. In silver, it was Jefferies and Deutsche Bank as issuers...and the Bank of Nova Scotia and Jefferies as stoppers. The link to that activity is here.
There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV.
The U.S. Mint had a tiny sales report. They sold 1,500 troy ounces of gold eagles...and that was it.
Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday they reported receiving 702,262 troy ounces of silver...but only shipped 174,075 ounces of the stuff out the door. The link to that action is here.
Well, the Commitment of Traders Report...for positions held at the 1:30 p.m. Eastern time close of trading on Tuesday, October 2nd...was uglier than even I imagined it could have been.
In silver, the Commercial net short position increased by an eye-watering 6,181 contracts, or 30.91 million ounces during the reporting week. The Commercial net short position now stands at 289.2 million ounces.
Ted Butler told me that, of those 6,200 contracts, the raptors sold about a thousand of their remaining long positions...and the '5 through 8' traders added another thousand contracts to their short positions. But it was the 'Big 4' that sold the rest...about 4,200 contracts worth. Ted said that JPMorgan is now short 34,000 Comex silver contracts...170 million ounces.
The 'Big 4' are short 258.0 million ounces of silver...and JPMorgan is short 170 million of that amount all by itself. The '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 51.4 million ounces. In total, the 'Big 8' bullion banks are short 309.4 million ounces of silver...about 150 days of world silver production!
On a net basis, once all the market-neutral spread trades are removed from the Non-Commercial category...the 'Big 4' are short 45.6% of the entire Comex silver market...and the '5 through 8' are short an additional 9.1% of the Comex silver market. So, adding it all up, the 'Big 8' are short 54.7% of the entire Comex futures market in silver...and JPMorgan is short more than 30% of that all by itself. These are minimum numbers as well. One trader is short almost a third of the entire futures market in silver. ONE TRADER!!!! Where the #$%& are the regulators???
In gold, the Commercial net short position increased by 'only' 6,915 contracts, or 691,500 troy ounces of gold. The Commercial net short position now stands at 26.93 million ounces of gold. But it's what went on under the hood that matters. Ted Butler said that the raptors bought back [at a loss] about 5,000 contracts of their gargantuan short position...and the 'Big 4' went short an equal amount, plus a couple of thousand more, to prevent the price from blowing sky high as the raptors covered...and the '5 through 8' accounted for the other 5,000 contracts sold short.
The 'Big 4' are short 16.83 million ounces of gold...and the '5 through 8' traders add another 6.01 million ounces to that total. The 'Big 8' bullion banks are short 22.84 million ounces of gold.
In percentage terms...and on a net basis...the 'Big 4' are short 37.1% of the Comex futures market in gold...and the '5 through 8' are short another 13.2 percentage points. Add it all up, and the 'Big 8' are short 50.3% of the entire Comex futures market...almost as bad as their collective short position in silver, which is 54.7 million ounces. How obscene and grotesque can you get?
Through all of this...the regulators and your precious metal companies...see nothing, say nothing...and do nothing!
Here's Nick's "Days of World Production to Cover Comex Short Positions" updated with Tuesday's COT data.
(Click on image to enlarge)
And don't forget when looking at the green and red gars for silver, that JPMorgan is short about 85 days of world production all by themselves...and two thirds of the red bar and over half of the green bar. How's that for a concentrated short position?
Here's the first of several charts. This one is from Washington state reader S.A...and requires no further embellishment from me.
(Click on image to enlarge)
This is a chart that reader David Schonbrunn sent me yesterday evening. He borrowed it from a report by Jurrien Timmer posted over at Fidelity.com on September 16th. I'd seen the chart on the Internet before, but hadn't posted it in this space until David sent it to me just now.
(Click on image to enlarge)
As usual, I have a lot of stories for your weekend entertainment, so I hope you can find the time to indulge yourself in the ones that are of the most interest to you.
I didn't watch the debate – I just couldn't. I read it in transcript form afterwards. I know it is widely believed that Mitt Romney won, but I don't agree. I think both candidates lost. I think they both sucked. Romney told a series of outright lies – the bit about the pre-existing conditions was incredible – while Barack Obama seemed unaccountably disinterested in the intellectual challenge of the exercise, repeatedly leaving the gross absurdities hurled his way by Romney unchallenged.
Romney's performance was better than Obama's, but only if you throw out criteria like "wasn't 100% full of shit from the opening bell" and "made an actual attempt to explain who he is and what his plans are." Unfortunately, that is good enough for our news media, which drools over the gamesmanship aspects of these debates, because it loves candidates who sink their teeth into the horse-race nonsense that they think validates their professional lives.
If you read the rest of this Matt Taibbi rant, you might figure out what he really thinks. It was posted on the Rolling Stone website yesterday afternoon Eastern time...and I thank Roy Stephens for our first story in today's column. And as you've already discovered, the usual disclaimer about Matt's 'pithy prose' applies. The link is here.
The big drop in the unemployment rate a month before the presidential election brought cries of disbelief and conspiracy theories from Jack Welch and other critics of the Obama administration Friday. But the Labor Department was quick to dismiss such claims.
"Unbelievable jobs numbers...these Chicago guys will do anything...can't debate, so change numbers."
Welch did not respond to a request for further comment. In an interview later in the day on MSNBC, he admitted that he had no evidence that the jobs numbers were manipulated, but said they "defy logic."
This story was posted on the money.cnn.com Internet site early yesterday evening...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending it along. The link is here.
Headline numbers from today's jobs report looked great. Unemployment fell to 7.8 percent, non-farm payrolls came in line with expectations, and last month's number was revised up.
This prompted some to claim the numbers were made up. President Obama said, "this morning we found out that the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest rate since I took office."
But Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg didn't paint such a rosy picture of the report and had a very specific response to any such claim: "That the 7.8 percent jobless rate takes it to the level that prevailed when the President took office in January 2009 has raised many an eyebrow. I don't believe in conspiracy theories. But I don't believe in the Household Survey either.
David may have been born at night...but it wasn't last night. This businessinsider.com story was posted on their Internet site during the lunch hour in New York yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for his second offering in today's column. The link is here.
Refinery outages and a unseasonably warm weather caused gas prices to shoot up by 20 cents a gallon overnight in California, prompting some stations to close and others to charge more than $5 a gallon, the AP reports.
Temperatures are expected to head up to at least 79 degrees in L.A., while production disruptions linger at local Chevron and Mobil refineries, according to USA Today.
GasBuddy is registering an average price of $4.53 this morning for the state, near the record of $4.61 from June 2008.
This story is an update of a similar story I ran a couple of days ago...and it's obvious that gas prices have risen substantially since then. You've already read the entire 3-paragraph Bloomberg story...and the link to the hard copy is here. I thank Roy Stephens for sending it.
There’s a lot that will likely go really wrong in Europe, perhaps even in the short-term. Greece is an unmitigated disaster, and Spain is running a close second. There was further dismal economic news this week, most notably from France. But that hasn’t in the least diminished recent keen speculative interest in European debt. Indeed, after the Fed sold its soul, I’ve often believed that the speculators became adept at recognizing periods of rising systemic stress and market vulnerability as opportunities to load up on Treasuries and MBS. And then it becomes a game, “OK Federal Reserve, make the value of these securities (or spread trades) go up or we’ll dump them.” They’ve haven’t had to dump. The ECB has similarly opened itself up to blackmail. “Be ready with the OMT as promised - or we dump.” “Spanish and Italian politicians, play ball or we’ll dump.” “Mr. Weidmann and the Bundesbank, step in line - or we dump!” “All policymakers everywhere, play or we dump.” At least in Europe, this is developing into one fascinating multifaceted game of chicken.
Well, I’ve been ranting for awhile now about the “biggest Bubble in the history of mankind.” At this point, things increasingly remind me of 1999 and 2006. Bubble Dynamics eventually reached a degree of excess that was too conspicuous to deny. Yet the stakes are so much greater today. The amount of global debt is so huge and the quality so poor. It’s completely systemic and global. Dangerous excesses have gravitated to the core of Credit and monetary systems. Policymakers are now “all in” in a desperate gambit to hold financial and economic fragility at bay. And, dangerously, highly speculative markets seem determined to extend their divergent path from economic fundamentals. It’s frightening how enormous and enormously powerful dysfunctional global markets have become.
As always, Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin is a must read every Friday...and yesterday's epistle is no exception. I thank reader U.D. for sending it my way...and the link is here.
In February of 2011, Jamie Dimon, the chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase, approached the podium of one of the ballrooms at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Key Biscayne, Fla., where 300 senior executives from around the world were attending the bank’s annual off-site conference. By that time, the cold fear of the financial crisis was cordoned off in the near-distant past, replaced by a dawning recognition that the ensuing changes in business — the comparatively trifling risk limits, the dwindling bonuses, the elevated stress levels — might actually be permanent. That day, Dimon took the opportunity, according to a bank employee in attendance, to try to inspire his team, to rouse them from the industry-wide sense of malaise. Yes, there were challenges, Dimon said, but it was the job of leadership to be strong. They should be prudent, but step up — be bold. He looked out into the audience, where Ina Drew, the 54-year-old chief investment officer, was sitting at one of the tables. “Ina,” he said, singling her out, “is bold.”
Perhaps by now when bankers hear that kind of public praise, they simultaneously hear a distant clanging, a dim alarm that provokes an undercurrent of anxiety. It seems inevitable that an acknowledgment of such star power will eventually lead to a fall, a big one, and one year and three months later, Drew succumbed. Her team had been bold, so bold that along with Dimon, she had become the public face attached to a $6 billion mistake, a trading loss so startling in size that it dominated the business press, put Dimon on the defensive and cost Drew her job. Over and over again, online and on television, in stories about the loss, the same corporate headshot appeared: a woman wearing a hot pink bouclé jacket, showing a smile so faint it was almost frank in its discomfort.
This huge cover story was posted on The New York Times Internet site on Wednesday...and I've been saving it for today. I thank Washington state reader S.A. for digging this up on our behalf. As I said, it's a long read, but well worth the effort if you have the time...and the link is here.
On Friday morning Greece announced that German prime minister Angela Merkel would be visiting Athens on Tuesday, October 9, in an apparent show of solidarity with the plight of the Greeks.
Steffen Seibert, Merkel's spokesman, said the visit "would be 'obviously' marked by the 'very serious situation of the country,'" reports DPA correspondent Christiane Jacke.
However, the Greek people may not be too into solidarity with Germany at the moment.
In fact, as a result of the announcement of the visit – which was made only this morning – several protest demonstrations to greet Merkel have already been announced.
This story was posted on the businessinsider.com Internet site late on Friday morning Eastern time...and is another offering from Roy Stephens. The link is here.
War with Syria? Most Turks say no. But the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is aggressively responding to a deadly cross-border attack, having been granted broad military powers by parliament. His hope: After Assad falls, Turkey will gain even more influence in the Middle East.
There's a growing fear among the Turkish public that their country will be sucked further into an armed conflict with Syria. Following the firing of a mortar bomb from Syrian territory that killed five civilians on Wednesday in the Turkish border town of Akcakale, Turkish fighter jets have carried out multiple strikes on Syrian targets, including a military camp belonging to President Bashar Assad. Numerous Syrian soldiers were reportedly killed.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made it clear his armed forces would not let an attack on "our territory" go unanswered. After Syrian anti-aircraft defenses shot down a Turkish surveillance plane in June, Turkey has significantly increased its troop presence along the border it shares with the country.
This story showed up on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and is another story that I've been saving for today's column. It is, of course, courtesy of Roy Stephens...and a must read for any student of the "New Great Game". The link is here.
It isn't yet clear who fired shells from Syria into Turkey, killing a mother and four children, or why. But if Turkey is going to launch a major incursion across the border between the two countries, be sure that the proximate reason wouldn't simply be border security or support for the rebel Free Syrian Army -- it would also be about crushing Kurdish militants.
Turkey's government had little choice but to respond in kind to the shelling from Syria, otherwise it would have come in for a shellacking at home for being weak.
The Syria crisis has reopened the region's Kurdish question, rekindling hope among some Kurds that their 30 million-strong nation, divided between Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, could emerge from the chaos with their own state, or at least a lot more autonomy.
Since the Syrian crisis developed into a civil war, insurgents from the Kurdistan Workers' Party, better known as the PKK, have launched their most intense guerrilla campaign against Turkish security forces since the 1990s. At the same time, Kurds in Syria have taken advantage of the turmoil there to start planting Kurdish flags in towns along Turkey's border and declaring a de facto autonomy.
More unfinished business from a hundred years ago. This story showed up on Bloomberg on Thursday...and is another must read for students of the "New Great Game". I thank Washington state reader S.A. for bringing this story to our attention...and the link is here.
A flash crash on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on Friday morning due to erroneous trades by a dealer in 59 frontline stocks pulled the NSE-50 (Nifty) index down 15.5% to 4,888, raising questions about the robustness of the bourse's software and leaving the exchange red-faced on the eve of a visit by the finance minister to the city. It recovered at the end of day's trade to close at 5,747, down 41, while the Sensex closed 120 points down at 18,938.
Although NSE suspended Emkay Global Financial Services, the broking house where the trades had originated, the incident invited severe criticism from market players about why the trading was not automatically stopped by the exchange given the rules of the Securities and Exchange Board of India that stipulate a circuit filter should kick in when the index goes up or down 10%. In this case the trading was stopped when the index went down 15.5%, which also triggered stop losses for several investors, thus aggravating losses for no fault of theirs. The flash crash also prompted SEBI to start a preliminary investigation into the whole affair.
This story was posted on the indiatimes.com Internet site early this morning India Standard Time. I plucked it from a GATA release late last night...and the link is here.
The phrase coined by the 17th-century English philosopher Francis Bacon is: "If the mountain won't come to Mohammed, then Mohammed must go to the mountain." So, if Russian President Vladimir Putin won't come to Islamabad on Tuesday, then Pakistani army chief Ashfaq Parvez Kiani will still go to Moscow...at the same time that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is arriving in Islamabad on an unscheduled visit.
To be sure, Moscow's priority will be to sit across the table with Kiani, as he is the fountainhead of authority in Pakistan on major foreign and security policy issues. Also, he is an unusual Pakistani general, having run into difficulties with the United States, while pushing for Pakistan's "strategic autonomy" on the geopolitical chessboard.
Indeed, the present moment is pregnant with possibilities. Russia and Pakistan in varying measure - for different reasons though - have come under US pressure. Both appreciate that the US has "lost" the war in Afghanistan, is pulling out of it and would have little choice but to negotiate with the Taliban; both sense a power vacuum could develop in Afghanistan but also feel uneasy that the US is yet keeping strategic ambiguity about its future military presence in the region.
More 'great game' material. This one showed up on the Asia Times website on Wednesday...and is another story that I've been saving for Saturday's column. I thank Roy Stephens once again...and the link is here.
With the surge of American troops over and the Taliban still a potent threat, American generals and civilian officials acknowledge that they have all but written off what was once one of the cornerstones of their strategy to end the war here: battering the Taliban into a peace deal.
The once ambitious American plans for ending the war are now being replaced by the far more modest goal of setting the stage for the Afghans to work out a deal among themselves in the years after most Western forces depart, and to ensure Pakistan is on board with any eventual settlement. Military and diplomatic officials here and in Washington said that despite attempts to engage directly with Taliban leaders this year, they now expect that any significant progress will come only after 2014, once the bulk of NATO troops have left.
“I don’t see it happening in the next couple years,” said a senior coalition officer. He and a number of other officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the effort to open talks.
“It’s a very resilient enemy, and I’m not going to tell you it’s not,” the officer said. “It will be a constant battle, and it will be for years.”
I heard all this stuff before as the U.S. was heading for the door in Vietnam. This story showed up in The New York Times on Tuesday...and it's also something that I've been saving for today's column. It's from Roy Stephens once again of course...and the link is here.
The first blog is with John Embry...and it's headlined "Physical Gold Demand May Now Overwhelm The Manipulators". Next is Gerald Celente. It's entitled "Exclusive Sneak Peek Of New Trends Journal & Gold". The audio interview is with Rick Santelli.
Wealthy Europeans who have pushed up the price of luxury London homes in a bid to shield their wealth from the eurozone crisis could have been better off buying gold, according to estate agent Knight Frank.
They have helped push up the price of super-prime homes in the capital - those above £10m - by almost 40pc since the March 2009.
A respectable return considering interest rates at historic lows of 0.5pc and "substantial economic, financial and political challenges".
However, gold in that time has risen 89pc to $1,786 a troy ounce and in gold terms the value of a luxury London home has plunged.
Liam Bailey, head of Residential Research at Knight Frank, said: "In 2002 it would have taken you 24,000 ounces of gold to buy a super-prime mansion in SW1. A decade on, you would get change from 9,800 ounces."
This story showed up on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site mid-afternoon BST yesterday...and is Roy Stephens' final offering in today's column. The link is here.
In India, the country plays host this fortnight to the mourning period for dead ancestors (Shraadh) in a period which is generally considered highly inauspicious for starting anything new, like buying a house, getting married or even buying gold.
In neighbouring China, on the other hand, the Golden Week holidays are on (Sept 30-Oct 7). The time is ripe for retailers to roll out the incentives, which is leading to a massive jump in sales across bullion counters.
One would have thought that the inauspicious nature of the fortnight in India would have led to a massive decline in gold sales, casting a shadow on the purchase of gold jewellery. However, the contrary is true.
This interesting story, filed from Mumbai on Friday, was posted on the mineweb.com Internet site...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for sending it along. The link is here.
In his latest commentary, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk explains that as gold is money, its value is calculated as a function of ever-inflating government-issued currencies. "Some say that the gold price rises and falls," Turk writes, "but they are grabbing the wrong end of the stick. It is the purchasing power of national currencies that rises and falls. Here is an analogy to make this point clear. When standing in a boat and looking at the shore, it is the boat (currencies)and not the land (gold) that is bobbing up and down."
Turk's commentary is posted over at the goldmoney.com Internet site...and I thank Chris Powell for writing the introductory paragraph above. It's a must read...and the link is here.
The obscure Belgian economist Robert Triffin is not only very dead he also isn't exactly a household name, yet. Triffin, who died in 1993 studied at Harvard, taught at Yale, worked at the Federal Reserve, the IMF, and was a key contributor to the formation of the European monetary system. Triffin exposed serious flaws in the Bretton Woods monetary system and perfectly predicted it's inevitable demise yet his work remains largely ignored and unstudied by today's mainstream economists. This "flaw" became known as the Triffin dilemma, and many believe Triffin's dilemma has as serious implications today as it did 50 years ago. In short, Triffin proposed that when one nations currency also becomes the worlds reserve asset, eventually domestic and international monetary objectives diverge. Have you ever wondered how it's possible that the USA has run a trade deficit for 37 consecutive years? Have you ever considered the consequences on the value of your Dollar denominated assets if it eventually becomes an unacceptable form of payment to our trading partners? Thankfully for those of us trying to navigate the current financial morass, Robert Triffin did.
Triffin's dilemma continues to play an important role in the ongoing financial crisis the world has found itself in since 2008. The governor of the Peoples Bank of China specifically referenced Triffin's Dilemma as the root cause of the current financial disorder and suggested an immediate effort to transition away from the US dollar to avoid more catastrophic consequences.
Well, if I had to pick just one work for you to read out of today's column...this would be the one. It was written by Joe Yasinski and Dan Flynn...and was posted over at the bullioninternational.com Internet site on Tuesday. I'm grateful to reader U.D. for bringing this story to our attention...and the link is here.
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A couple of weeks ago I featured a four or five year old piano prodigy in this space...and I got quite a few e-mails about that. Well, here's another. This 13-year old girl showed up on Simon Cowell's "X Factor" two weeks ago...and I was totally blown away by the time she had sung the first couple of bars. A few days after the show, Roy Stephens sent me the video clip...and I've been saving it for today. It's a must watch/listen...and the link is here. The synchronization between the video and audio is not great...but that's not what's important here.
Today's 'blast from the past' was composed in 1863. The Introduction and Rondo Capriccioso in A minor, Op. 28, is a composition for violin and orchestra written by Camille Saint-Saëns for the then 19-year old virtuoso violinist Pablo de Sarasate. Since its 19th-century premiere, it has continued to be one of Saint-Saëns' most popular compositions.
Here's Dutch violin virtuoso Janine Jansen doing the honours. The video quality could be better, but she's as good as they get...and I could listen to her play all day long. The link is here.
Yesterday's price action at the jobs numbers came as no surprise to me. The only unknown is whether this is the start of a more serious engineered price decline...or was what we saw during the Friday trading session, all there was. I would suspect that we'll get an answer to that on Sunday night when trading begins at 6:00 p.m. in New York, which is 7:00 a.m. in Tokyo, the first major market that opens in the Far East on Monday morning.
But that's not the pressing issue at the moment. It's the obscene, grotesque and utterly dangerous situation that exists in the silver market and, to a certain extent, that danger extends into the gold market as well.
Ted Butler says, and rightly so, that the short position held by the four largest traders in silver...JPMorgan specifically...has become a danger to all market participants, whether they be on the long side or short side. The situation has now become so extreme that disorderly markets in either [or both] directions is almost unavoidable going forward.
It's now past the point where anyone, whether it be the CME Group, the CFTC...or JPMorgan themselves can do anything about it, without blowing up the entire market...and heaven only knows what collateral damage there might be from that.
At one point during this past trading week...whether it was Wednesday or Thursday...JPMorgan was short seven times the allowable 5,000 contract position limit for all months in silver.
Do you remember Ted Butler's crusade for a position limit of 1,500 contacts [2,000 maximum] for any one market participant in Comex silver a few years back? A position limit this size in silver would be in line with the rest of the physical commodities that are traded on the Comex. This fact alone should indicate how dangerous the situation has become...and if that doesn't scare you half to death...I don't know what will.
You should be terrified of this market. I know I am.
Before signing off I'd like to wish all my Canadian readers a happy Thanksgiving long weekend. Eat lots...and drink lots. That's what I intend on doing. To help you get you in the mood for the big day, this video...courtesy of reader Bob Stroup...will help out.
See you on Tuesday.