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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Brodsky and Quaintance: Solution is Asset Monetization, Starting With Gold Revaluation

"It's not much of stretch to say that the next few weeks and months could bring some sort of ugly Apocalyptic resolution."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Once trading began in the Far East on Friday morning, the gold price began to drift slowly lower. But shortly after 11:00 a.m. Hong Kong time the bid disappeared...and in less than five minutes, gold was down over twenty bucks, with the low of the day just under the $1,560 spot mark.

From there it traded more or less sideways until shortly after 9:00 a.m. in London. It then began to move higher...and continued to rally until just after the close of Comex trading in New York. The gold price then gained a few more dollars going into the close of electronic trading...and finished the Friday trading session almost on its high of the day. The actual high of the day, as reported by Kitco, was $1,596.30 spot.

Gold closed at $1,594.70 spot...up $6.20 from Thursday's close. Net volume was a more subdued [but still quite high] 151,000 contracts.

Silver's price path was pretty much the same as gold's. The big difference was that silver's low [a bit below $28 spot] came shortly after 9:00 a.m. in London...and not six hours earlier in the Hong Kong market like gold's low.

The subsequent quiet rally lasted well into the electronic market in New York, but got sold off a hair shortly before the 5:15 p.m. Eastern close. Silver's high price tick in the New York electronic session was $28.73 spot.

Silver finished the trading day at $28.53 spot, down 6 cents from Thursday. Net volume was pretty decent at about 35,000 contracts.

The dollar index rally that began life at 81.92 at 9:30 a.m. on Thursday morning, ran out of gas at 82.89 at 9:30 Friday morning...a twenty-four hour rally of about 97 basis points. The index then rolled over...and by the close of trading, it had shed 38 basis points from its high tick...and closed the day up 26 basis points.

If you can find any correlation between the dollar index and the gold and silver price action during the Friday trading session, I'd love to hear about it.

Gold was down less than ten bucks when the New York equity markets opened...and the gold stocks gapped down a bit more than two percent. But by 10:00 a.m. the stocks were back in the black...and stayed there for most of the rest of the day. The HUI finished up 0.64%.

Considering the fact that silver didn't do as well as gold, the shares did OK...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 0.98%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 36 gold and 3 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday.

There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV on Friday.

But the U.S. Mint had a decent sales report yesterday. They sold a whopping 10,000 ounces of gold eagles...1,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...along with 448,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 10,500 ounces of gold eagles...1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 738,000 silver eagles. At the mint so far this month, silver is outselling gold a bit over 63 to 1.

There was no activity in silver over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday.

The Commitment of Traders Report in silver showed that the Commercial net short position increased by a rather small 2,191 contracts, which is not an overly large amount. The main reason for that is because silver did not rally very much compared to the big rally in the gold price two Friday's ago. Reader E.F. pointed out that the small commercial traders...Ted Butler's raptors..."have the highest net long position since October 28, 2008 when silver was $9.09 per ounce." That's an amazing fact. We'll find out soon enough if they know something that we don't.

Of course, it was an entirely different story for gold. The big Friday, June 1st rally was met by a large deterioration in the Commercial net short position. It increased by 25,413 contracts...but a lot of that amount was the small commercial traders [the raptors] selling their long positions for a profit. As reader E.F. also pointed out, the raptors went from net long gold, to now being net short gold.

Of course everything that was reported in yesterday's COT report has changed during the last three trading days of the week...so the numbers above really don't have any meaning anymore and, without doubt, a new COT report that included those three days would put gold and silver back at, or below, the lows of mid-May and late December. It always seems like we're waiting around for the next COT report...and this time is no exception.

We also got the new Bank Participation Report for June...and the data in it is extracted from yesterday's Commitment of Traders Report. For this one day every month we can compare apples to apples.

In silver, 4 U.S. banks increased their Comex short position from 16,681 contracts in May to 18,885 contracts in June. I would bet serious money that JPMorgan and HSBC hold almost all of that short position...about 98%...with JPMorgan holding most of that 98%.

There are 12 non-U.S. banks that hold Comex contracts in the June Report. In the May report they were net short 1,352 Comex silver contracts. In the June report they were net long 1,212 Comex contracts...a swing of 2,564 contracts.

What we have are two U.S. banks that are net short about 18,000 Comex silver contracts between them...and 12 non-U.S. banks that are net long 2,564 Comex contracts, or about 214 contracts apiece. A back-of-the-envelope calculation using data from the COT Report shows that JPM and HSBC are short 19% of the entire Comex silver market on a net basis.

What is so hard to understand about this? This is a short-side corner in the silver market.

In gold, 4 U.S. banks went from net short 67,765 Comex gold contracts in May, to net short 70,300 Comex contracts in June...an increase of about 2,500 contracts.

There are 19 non-U.S. banks that were net short 41,519 Comex gold contracts in May...and that increased to 44,841 Comex contracts in June.

The 4 U.S. banks above are net short about 17,575 Comex gold contracts apiece...if they were divided up equally between them, which they certainly aren't in real life. The 19 non-U.S. banks are net short about 2,360 Comex contracts apiece, if divided up equally.

The 4 U.S. banks are short 17.9% of the entire Comex gold market on a net basis.

As far as the foreign banks are concerned, their Comex positions in silver appear immaterial...and for most of them they are. I can pretty much guarantee that of all the foreign banks involved in the precious metals market, only a tiny handful hold the vast majority of the Comex contracts that are shown above. They would include The Bank of Nova Scotia, Deutsche Bank and maybe one or two others. They would certainly all be included in the '1-4' and '5-8' largest traders in the weekly COT Report.

Here's a graph that Nick Laird sent me last evening. It's his "Total PMs Pool"...and despite the price declines that began with the drive-by shooting on May 1, 2011...the precious metals held in visible storage are still going strong.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here's a neat chart that confirms what I said in this column yesterday. But did the precious metals prices decline naturally, or did they get a really good shove? It's your call. I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending it to me.

I have the usual number of stories...and I've been saving some for Saturday because of either their size or content, so I hope you have time to go through them all over what's left of the weekend.

¤ Critical Reads

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One Very Brave NY Judge Has Overruled The President And A Ton Of Powerful Lawmakers

On May 16 U.S. District Judge Katherine Forrest upheld her decision to block the controversial indefinite detention provisions in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) of 2012, and the Obama Administration made a request for a more detailed explanation.

The defendants — Barack Obama, Leon Panetta, John McCain, John Boehner, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell and Eric Cantor — argued that the order only stopped the government from indefinitely detaining the journalists and activists who brought the lawsuit.

But Judge Forrest has now clarified the injunction in a 8-page memorandum released Wednesday so as to "leave no doubt" that U.S. citizens cannot be indefinitely detained without due process.

This story was posted on the businessinsider.com website late yesterday evening...and I thank Roy Stephens for his first offering of the day. The link is here.

US Banks Face $60 Billion Capital Shortfall

The 19 largest US banks are at least $50 billion short of meeting new capital requirements under the Basel III accords, according to rules proposed by the Federal Reserve.

The biggest among them would probably need billions of dollars more by the 2019 deadline to comply fully with the rules.

Smaller US lenders are about $10 billion short of the requirements, the Fed said on Thursday.

The Fed’s proposals, which will be phased in from next year, are part of a larger package implementing the Basel III accords in the US.

This Financial Times story from yesterday was picked up by CNBC...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending it. The link is here.

Trustee Sees Customers Trampled at MF Global

If the collapse of the commodities brokerage firm MF Global were a murder mystery, the revelation that $1.6 billion of customer money had disappeared would be the equivalent of finding the corpse.

Who did it? And given that customer assets, by law, must be segregated from a firm’s assets and operations, how could it have happened?

This week, MF Global’s liquidation trustee, James W. Giddens, went a long way toward solving the mystery in a 181-page account of MF Global’s decline and fall.

This story was posted on The New York Times Internet site yesterday...and I thank reader Phil Barlett for sharing it with us. The link is here.

Pavlovian: Doug Noland, Credit Bubble Bulletin

The view that this week provided only the opening policy response salvo is anything but unjustified. If things proceed in Europe (and globally) as I fear, we can expect the ECB to cut rates and implement additional liquidity measures, as the Fed moves forward with additional quantitative easing. The Chinese, Indians, Brazilians and others will stimulate in hope of sustaining faltering booms. And I expect all of these measures to have little, if any, constructive impact on deepening global Credit and economic crises. At the same time, the impact on financial markets is less clear. Even NYC taxi drivers are confident that policy measures are sure to bolster the markets. To what extent will the sophisticated operators now use generous market accommodation to head for the exits? It’s traditionally been referred to as “distribution.” Think Facebook IPO.

As always, Doug's CBB posted over at the prudentbear.com website, is a must read in times such as this...and this week's commentary is no exception. As always, I thank reader U.D. for sending it along...and the link is here.

Hyperinflation 2012: John Williams

Here is John Williams, of shadowstats.com fame, with his 75-page annual report, which is now published in the clear six months after he posted it on his Internet site for his paying subscribers.

This should keep you off the streets for a while...and I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for bringing it to my attention...and now to yours. The link to the pdf file is here.

Iceland economy grows at fastest pace in four years

Iceland's economy expanded in the first quarter at its fastest pace since its near-meltdown, powered by a surge in exports, tourism and domestic consumption.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of the year to put annual economic growth at 4.5 percent in the period, the highest since the first quarter of 2008, data from the statistics office showed on Friday.

"It shows that the economy is growing rather rapidly, at least in an international comparison, at the moment," Islandsbanki Chief Economist Ingolfur Bender said.

"The increase is broad-based, driven by consumption, investment and exports."

This rather short Reuters story was filed from Stockholm late yesterday morning...and I thank reader 'David in California' for sending it. The link is here.

Debt crisis: EC plot to use competition rules to close down eurozone banks

The European Commission is threatening to use EU competition rules to close down the failing Greek, Spanish and Portuguese banks that have pushed the eurozone into a new crisis, with Greece's ATEbank the first in its sights.

EU state-aid rules, designed to stop government subsidies distorting competition, give the commission sweeping powers to impose restructuring conditions on bank bailouts or even to block the rescue.

Over the past two years, the rules have been interpreted generously to allow government bank bailouts to go ahead in return for commitments to restructure failing financial institutions but the mood in Brussels has hardened since the initial credit crunch of 2009.

”We are moving into a new phase with Greece, Portugal and Spain,” an EU official told Reuters. “Some banks are going to be squeezed. Some are going to be closed down.”

This story was posted in The Telegraph early in their afternoon yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for his second offering of the day. The link is here.

China and Russia flex muscle at the West: Asia Times

Beijing and Moscow will send a clear message to the world at the ongoing Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. The leaderships of China and Russia have drawn two lines in the sand - an unequivocal "No" to bombing Iran, and another unambiguous "No" to regime change in Syria brought about through a Western bombing campaign.

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing yesterday to start his first overseas visit after he was elected as the Russian leader again, which highlights the importance he attaches to his country's relations with China. And in Beijing, no less, he is scheduled to hold talks with his Iranian counterpart, Mahmud Ahmadinejad. This is indicative of the joint Russian and Chinese geopolitical strategy.

Furthermore, Beijing and Moscow are playing defense against perceived Western militarism and aggression. In order to understand their shared interests and methods on the global stage, it is useful to examine the origins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization itself.

For students of "The New Great Game"...this story, plus the next one, are must reads. I thank Roy Stephens for digging up both of them. The link is here.

Russia's quiet rapprochement with Pakistan

Quietly and unobtrusively, a Russo-Pakistani rapprochement has been developing behind the scenes of world politics for the last two years. On Pakistan's side, the almost spectacular deterioration of relations with the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has led it to seek new friends, especially as the alliance accelerates its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Russia also fully understands that Pakistan is a crucial player in Afghanistan and that, as NATO withdraws, it becomes all the more urgent for Moscow to seek some sort of modus vivendi with Islamabad.

This modest, albeit real, rapprochement is, however, built upon a long-standing foundation of mistrust. Russian officials have long been concerned over the safety and security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal. Due to those concerns and Pakistan's record, foreign policy analysts like Alexei Arbatov observed that for Russia, Pakistan is a principal potential threat to non-proliferation.

This is the second must read story from the Asia Times...as it dovetails nicely with the previous AT story. The link is here.

You Don't Have To Read Chinese To See Why This Chart Has Beijing Freaked Out

Month over month inflation line just went negative.

More broadly, inflation by any measure is quickly dropping. The 3.0% YOY reading was below consensus estimates of 3.2%.

That's why China is panicking and cut rates on Thursday morning.

This tiny story, including a must see graph, was posted on the businessinsider.com website late last night. It's a must read for sure...and I thank Roy Stephens once again for sending it along. The link is here.

China rate cut sparks fears of grim May data

Global cheers over China's decision to cut interest rates faded on Friday as investors and economists worried that the move signaled the impending release of grim economic data.

China's surprise rate cut unveiled on Thursday boosted hopes that cheaper credit would help combat its faltering economic growth, and it encouraged global share markets in their belief that the major economies were stepping up stimulus.

But the central bank's cut, the first since the global financial crisis in late 2008, also raised concerns the economy may be weaker than previously thought.

Asian shares lost ground on Friday, worried that a deluge of May Chinese data due this weekend could produce ugly numbers.

This Reuters piece was filed from Beijing early on their Friday morning. It's another must read story...and I borrowed it from yesterday's edition of the King Report. The link is here.

"Material Banknote Order Reinstated"

Fortress Paper Ltd., announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Landqart AG, a leading manufacturer of banknote and security papers, has had a material banknote order reinstated. This order was unexpectedly suspended in the fourth quarter of 2011 which negatively impacted the financial results of Landqart's operations in the first half of 2012.

The rumour is that this 'material banknote order' is for Greece's new currency once it pulls the plug on the Euro. I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for sending it along...and the link to the zerohedge.com story is here.

Things That Make You Go Hmmmmmm....

The first ten pages of this 27-page report is all about gold and gold stocks. The author, Grant Williams of Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore, understands the inner workings of the gold market completely...as the list of gold commentators he says that you should listen to includes just about everyone in the gold price management camp...and the ones you shouldn't listen to are all "the usual suspects".

The first ten pages are a must read for sure...but the rest of the report is worth your time as well. I thank reader U.D. for sending it to me last Sunday...and the link is here.

Three King World News Blogs/Interviews

The first one is by the mysterious "London Trader". It's entitled "Staggering 515 Tonnes of Gold Sold in 4 Hours". The second blog is with Peter Schiff...and it's headlined "World is Headed Off the Edge of the Fiscal Cliff". And lastly is this audio interview with Nigel Farage. The blog was posted in this space yesterday.

Golden Days Ahead: Dave Kranzler

The Gold Report: You started your career, Dave, in the fixed income securities division of Goldman Sachs. And you worked as a junk bond trader before founding Golden Returns Capital. What prompted you to move into precious metals?

Dave Kranzler: After working as a bond trader on Wall Street, I was day trading. A friend suggested that I look at gold and silver. I initially poo-pooed that idea, as I was more interested in shorting technology stocks during the Internet bubble. I thought the tech valuations were based on nothing more than hopes and dreams, not on real wealth. The enormous growth in paper investments was driven by the incredible amount of money supply thrown into the system by Alan Greenspan's Federal Reserve.

But in late 2001, my friend finally convinced me to get serious about mining stocks. So I investigated the reasons why there had been a 20-year bear market in precious metals and why a long-term bull market was in the offing.

This interview was posted over at theaureport.com website on Monday...and I thank reader Dean DiPaola for sending it. The link is here.

Tear up your paper money

So what is it about money that the leaders of the eurozone don't get?

Money has been around for a while, and it's not terribly complicated.

The key element is trust. That was true when money was a piece of metal that you could bite or bounce. Now that money is just a piece of paper, it's even truer. Today's money is nothing but trust.

That's why the euro crisis is so bizarre. The euro is, in theory, one of the world's great currencies. And yet, as this crisis has demonstrated, nobody actually stands behind it. There is no lender of last resort. There is no "full faith and credit." There's nobody on the other end of the promise.

And it's as if the leaders of the eurozone wanted to go out of their way to prove it. They've taken us up to the velvet curtain and then themselves, with a self-satisfied smile, pulled it aside to show us that there is no Great Oz.

This short, but very interesting story was posted on the money.msn.com Internet site on Thursday...and I thank reader Jon DeWeese for sharing it with us. The link is here.

Felix de la Cova: The real cost of not owning gold

Writing for GoldMoney, Felix Moreno de la Cova replies to Bloomberg News' most recent disparagement of investing in gold.

De la Cova writes: "When debtors are not to be trusted, there is a big difference between holding an IOU and cash in hand. That is the value of owning gold. When even 'cash' is debt, holding a real asset is immensely superior as a means of protecting your wealth. It is just plain common sense. That this particular asset was officially money a few decades ago is just icing on the cake.

"But of course those issuing the debt, and their hired propagandists, will tell a different story. They might even try to convince you that if you really, really want to buy gold you should consider buying this shiny new improved 'paper gold,' which is just as good as the real stuff. Fool me once...."

I borrowed the headline and the preamble from a GATA release late last night. De la Cova's commentary is headlined "The Real Cost of Not Owning Gold" and it's posted at the GoldMoney Internet site here.

A golden idea to save (or doom) the euro

There’s a lot to like about the European Redemption Pact, politically and economically, and a lot not to like if you’re worried that this German-inspired fund is the mother of all potential loot grabs.

On the positive side, the gold bricks are piled up like Lego in central bank vaults. They are unpledged and devaluation-proof, meaning the gold-backed loans would be ultra-cheap – probably 1 per cent. Politically, a gold-backed loan is defensible, in the sense that it’s cheap. The alternative is trying to flog sovereign bonds at crippling yields – 5 to 7 per cent. That, in turn would mean ratcheting up the austerity programs in an attempt to restore enough investor confidence to bring yields down.

The downside, of course, is potential default, which would mean transferring a huge chunk of a country’s hardest, most gorgeous assets – and hence economic power – out of the country. You would have to presume, however, that any country would be ultra careful to make sure it gets the gold back, as Italy did.

This reporter in Canada's Globe and Mail newspaper came very close to the truth in this piece that was posted on their website late Friday afternoon. The only thing that he doesn't see coming is the fact that the world's gold price will have to be revaluated to some fantastic amount to balance the books at all the Western world's central banks. My favourite number is somewhere between $8,000 and $18,000 the ounce. I borrowed this story from a GATA release which Chris Powell filed from Hong Kong early on their Saturday morning...and the link is here.

Brodsky and Quaintance: Solution is asset monetization, starting with gold revaluation

In an outline posted Friday at Zero Hedge, fund managers Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky make the case for resolving the world debt crisis with an asset monetization and revaluation based on the upward revaluation of gold by 800 to 1,000 percent, creating lots of money with which government debt could be liquidated and bringing hopeless mortgages and the banks that issued them back to solvency.

This introduction, and the Zero Hedge link from Chris Powell, is part of a larger preamble that's contained in this GATA release. It's a must read from one end to the other...and I thank Wesley Legrand for being the first one through the door with this story yesterday evening. The link is here.

Gold Alert: Sprott Asset Management

There have been key developments in the physical gold market over the last few weeks which we feel are worth highlighting: The Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong in April, 2012 surged almost 1,300% on a YoY basis. Total gross imports for the month of April were 103.6 tonnes and the net imports were 66.3 tonnes. It is not the data for April alone which has caught our eye. There has been a stunning increase of gold imports through Hong Kong for export into China over the past 2 years. Between May 2010 and April 2011, China imported a net 66 tonnes of physical gold through Hong Kong. Between May 2011 and April 2012, that number jumped to 489 tonnes. This represents an increase of 640%.

The report just gets better from there. It was written by Eric Sprott and Shree Kargutkar...and was posted on the sprott.com website yesterday. I thank reader Neil West for finding it on our behalf. It's a must read of course...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

The great orators who rule the assemblies by the brilliancy of their eloquence are in general men of the most mediocre political talents: they should not be opposed in their own way; for they have always more noisy words at command than you. Their eloquence should be opposed by a serious and logical argument; their strength lies in vagueness; they should be brought back to the reality of facts; practical arguments destroy them. In the council, there were men possessed of much more eloquence than I was: I always defeated them by this simple argument; two and two make four. - Napoleon Bonaparte

Today's 'blast from the past' was a live recording done with the NBC Symphony Orchestra on March 29, 1948...just over six months before I was born...and TV was in its infancy. The legendary conductor Arturo Toscanini conducts one of the few pieces from this classical composer that I know at all...and if you've been around the block a time or two, you should know it as well. I remember listening to this recording on the radio many times when I was a child growing up in the 1950s on the prairies of Manitoba...and I still consider this to be the definitive performance of this work. So turn up your speakers...and then click here.

There's not much to say about yesterday's price action, as the precious metals market was just licking its wounds after the hammering it took on Thursday and early Friday. It will be interesting too see how the precious metal market reacts, or is allowed to react, as we go forward from here.

But with the election in Greece coming up hard...and all the unsolvable problems in the world's financial and monetary system coming to a head in Europe and elsewhere, it's not much of stretch to say that the next few weeks and months could bring some sort of ugly Apocalyptic resolution.

I'll leave you on that cheery note...and I'll see you here on Tuesday.

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