Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Apr 28, 2012 11:35AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
"The "Where do we go from here?" is 100 percent up to JPMorgan et al...as it always is."
It was a very quiet day both price and volume wise in gold on Planet Earth yesterday. The gold price didn't do much through all of Far East and London trading...and the tiny rally that gold had, didn't begin until 8:30 a.m. in Comex trading in New York.
Over the next hour, the gold price ran up about ten bucks...and expect for the momentary high tick of the day at $1,669.00 spot around 10:40 a.m. Eastern...the gold price developed a slight downward bias for the remainder of the New York trading session.
Gold closed at $1,662.80 spot...up $5.70 on the day. Net volume was a very light 88,000 contracts.
The silver price action was more or less a variation of the gold price action...with the high of the day coming at 9:40 a.m. in New York...the same moment that gold's rally ran out of gas. The high tick at that point was $31.55 spot...and from that high, silver sold off about two bits going into the close of Friday trading.
Silver closed at $31.27 spot...up 18 whole cents. As has been the case all week, gross volume in silver was immense, but net volume was tiny...around 17,000 contracts. Except for deliveries, May is now off the board...and the new front month for silver is July.
The dollar index rallied a bit during Far East trading. That rally, such as it was, ended at the London open at 8:00 a.m BST...and it was all down hill from there...with the bottom coming a few minutes before 9:00 a.m. in New York. From that point, the index bounced off the 78.70 level a few times...and closed the day virtually on that low...down about 41 basis points on the day.
The gold stocks hit their zenith at 9:40 a.m...the top of the rally in the gold price...and like Thursday, the shares got sold down a bit over a percent. Then, also like Thursday, they spent the rest of the day drifting higher, as the gold price drifted slowly lower. Despite the rather lackluster gold price action, the HUI finished up 1.46% on the day.
Most of the silver equities finished in the plus column yesterday, but not by a lot. That was reflected in Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index, which was up only 0.43%.
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Well, the CME Daily Delivery Report showed that last delivery for gold in April was 49 contracts...and that's to be delivered on Monday the 30th.
First Day Notice numbers for delivery into the May contract in gold was 296 contracts. The big short/issuer was JPMorgan in its client account with 295 of those contracts...and the big long/stopper was the Bank of Nova Scotia with 255 contracts to be received on May 1st.
In silver, there were 957 silver contracts posted for delivery on Tuesday. The big short/issuer was JPMorgan in its house account with 653 contracts. In distant second place were the Bank of Nova Scotia and Jefferies, with 157 and 142 contracts respectively. The big long/stoppers were Deutsche Bank [314 contracts for its in-house trading account]...JPMorgan [280 contracts in its client account]...and Goldman Sachs with 218 contracts in its in-house account. The link to all the action, which is worth a minute of your time, is here.
The GLD ETF showed that an authorized participant added 77,682 troy ounces of gold...and there were no reported changes in SLV.
The U.S. Mint had a sales report of sorts. They sold 3,000 ounces of gold eagles and 40,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 20,000 ounces of gold eagles...9,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 1,320,000 silver eagles.
The Comex-approved depositories took in another big chunk of silver on Thursday. This time it was 1,221,282 troy ounces of the stuff...and didn't ship out a single ounce. The other happening of note was the transfer of 4,991,883 troy ounces of silver out of the Eligible category into the Registered category over at the JPMorgan warehouse. Time will tell if that means anything or not. The link to Thursday's action is here.
I was more than happy with yesterday's Commitment of Traders Report [for positions held at the close of Comex trading on Tuesday]. The Commercial net short position in silver declined by a chunky 4,144 contracts...and is now down to 111.8 million ounces.
The '1-4' largest traders in the Comex silver market are short 163.3 million ounces of the stuff...33.8% of the entire Comex futures market in silver on a net basis. The '5-8' big short holders are short an additional 40.4 million ounces of silver, which represents 8.4% of the net short position. So, the '1 through 8' largest traders on the short side, are short 42.2% of the entire Comex futures market in silver, once the market-neutral spread trades are removed from the Non-Commercial category. This is called a short-side corner on the silver market.
In gold, the Commercial net short position declined another goodly chunk. This week it was 8,854 contracts, or 885,400 troy ounces. The Commercial net short position is now down to 16.7 million ounces.
The '1-4' largest short holders in gold are short 10.7 million ounces of the stuff...and the '5-8' largest short holders are short an additional 5.0 million ounces. The '1 through 8' largest short holders in gold are short 15.7 million ounces. This amount represents 94.0% of the Commercial net short position in gold. In silver, the '1 through 8' largest short holders are short 182% of the Commercial net short position.
Yes, the gold market is managed, but it pales in comparison to the internal structure of the Comex futures market in silver.
As I mentioned in Friday's column, the engineered price decline in the silver market on Wednesday was not going to be in yesterday's COT report. Ted Butler and I pretty much agree that if what happened on Wednesday was factored into Friday's COT, it's clear that we would be back at the low COT levels of late December.
Here's Ted's "Day of World Production to Cover Short Positions" that Nick Laird maintains on a weekly basis. In all four precious metals you can see that the 'big 4' traders hold the lion's share of the short positions compared to the '5 through 8' traders.
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Here's a chart that Nick Laird sent me in the wee hours of Saturday morning...and it requires no further embellishment from me.
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Saturday is the day I get to empty my in-box...and I intend to do precisely that, so I hope you enjoy what I've been saving.
Writing at King World News, ShadowStats editor John Williams argues that evidence of economic recovery in the United States turns bogus when government-doctored inflation data is discarded and real inflation data is used. Williams predicts that more debt monetization will be employed to prop up banks while being portrayed as economic stimulus.
I borrowed this introduction from the GATA press release. This blog is posted over at KWN website...and the link is here.
The TSA’s had a banner week. It began with former Head Cheese, Kip Hawley – the guy who foisted the liquids-in-baggies nonsense on us – bleating that the agency is “broken” and it’s no wonder Americans hate it. As if to prove him right, screeners beat up on little girls – twice. And it was only Monday. By Wednesday, cops had arrested four screeners at Los Angeles International who took a break from pawing passengers to smuggle illicit drugs through checkpoints. Meanwhile, a Congressman alleged assault after a “very aggressive … pat-down.”
Hmmm. Seems there are several clues here that perhaps we might want to, oh, I don’t know, abolish this vile agency.
This story was posted over at the forbes.com website yesterday...and I thank 'Jan from Denmark' for sharing it with us. The link is here.
Texas congressman Ron Paul spent about 45 minutes on CNBC on Monday...and although I haven't had time to listen to the whole thing, what I have heard is worth your time. I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending it to me earlier this week...and the link to the youtube.com video is here.
In perhaps the most courageous (and likely must-read for future economists) speech ever given inside the New York Fed's shallowed hallowed walls, Economic Policy Journal's Robert Wenzel delivered the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth to the monetary priesthood. Gracious from the start, Wenzel takes the Keynesian clap-trappers to task on almost every nonsensical and oblivious decision they have made in recent years.
"My views, I suspect, differ from beginning to end... I stand here confused as to how you see the world so differently than I do. I simply do not understand most of the thinking that goes on here at the Fed and I do not understand how this thinking can go on when in my view it smacks up against reality."
But his closing was tremendous:
"Let’s have one good meal here. Let’s make it a feast. Then I ask you, I plead with you, I beg you all, walk out of here with me, never to come back. It’s the moral and ethical thing to do. Nothing good goes on in this place. Let’s lock the doors and leave the building to the spiders, moths and four-legged rats." [Rather than the 2-legged variety. - Ed]
No shades of grey here. The entire speech is posted over at zerohedge.com...and I thank Elliot Simon for his second offering in a row in today's column. The link is here.
The financial system is simply unable to make enough money off the real economy in order to even survive its past episodic spasm of over-speculation, describing the scale of dysfunction as something far greater than anyone perhaps realizes.
In many ways the system is at a terminal crossroads, as it cannot function without the synthesization of so much credit, but the real economy may not be able to survive the resource drain and monetary inefficiency that this much synthesization requires. Intermediation was supposed to be a tool for the real economy. Now the real economy is nothing more than a support system for the global investment banking regime.
In bailing out the banking system, central banks have put their money on the wrong horse since banks are almost completely disconnected from their true role as a tool of the real economy. The labyrinth of complexity and intentional opacity is designed to hide this fact. Real credit is shrinking throughout the system, but synthetic credit is alive, well and flourishing. The financial system now exists to its own exclusive benefit.
This eye-opening essay was posted last December over at the realclearmarkets.com website. I came close to zapping this without reading it, but persevered...and was glad I did. It's a rather longish read, but very much a must read in my opinion. I thank reader Julius Adams for sending it...and the link is here.
For years, Zimbabwe was infamous for the opposite problem: mind-boggling inflation. Trips to the supermarket required ridiculous box loads of cash. By January 2009, the country was churning out bills worth 100 trillion Zimbabwean dollars, which were soon so worthless they would not buy a loaf of bread (the notes now circulate on eBay, as gag gifts).
But since Zimbabwe started using the United States dollar as its currency in 2009, it has run into a surprising quandary. Once worth too little, money in Zimbabwe is now worth too much.
“For your average Zimbabwean, a dollar is a lot of money,” said Tony Hawkins, an economist at the University of Zimbabwe.
Zimbabweans call it “the coin problem.” Simply put, the country hardly has any. Coins are heavy, making them expensive to ship here. But in a nation where millions of people live on a dollar or two a day, trying to get every transaction to add up to a whole dollar has proved a national headache.
This story was posted in The New York Times earlier this week...and is another Elliot Simon offering. It's an interesting read...and the link is here.
Way back in heady days of 2009, we gave you 6 reasons to move to Iceland.
Well, we actually spent some time there last month — and guess what!
You should still move.
In fact, there's even more reasons now.
This 18-slide businessinsider.com story was posted on their website on Wednesday...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link to Reason #1 is here.
The London arm of the great vampire squid paid only £4.1m in corporation tax to the Treasury last year. Despite pocketing £1.9bn in pre-tax profits.
Lord Blankfein’s investment bank received a tax bill of £422.3m for 2011 but has put off paying 99pc of it until next year.
Just to put that in context that’s 38pc of the entire Government annual spend on energy and climate change, and nearly 9pc of UK cash spent on transport last year.
The Inland Revenue must be fuming. Maybe not. Last year the tax men “let off” Goldman to the tune of £10m.
What’s £418.2m between friends, eh?
This story was posted on the telegraph.co.uk website yesterday morning...and you've just read all of it. I thank Roy Stephens for sending this out way...and the link to the hard copy is here.
Opposition parties in The Netherlands have salvaged budget-cutting plans designed to protect the country's triple-A rating and to meet EU targets.
The left-wing Christenunie, the liberal D66 and the Groenlinks parties on Thursday (27 April) got behind the minority caretaker government of centre-right leader Mark Rutte to give him a 77-out-of-150 majority in parliament for the measures.
The details on the €10-billion-or-so package are to be worked out at a later stage.
This is another Roy Stephens offering...and this one was posted over at the euobserver.com website early on Friday morning. The link is here.
It's so nice to see Europe in agreement once again. Whether it's German Chancellor Angela Merkel, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso or French presidential candidates François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy -- everyone seems to think a "growth pact" for the continent is a good idea. But it is precisely this agreement that should make one skeptical -- because all the vague phrase really does is verbally lump together Europe's tremendous conflicts of interest.
The suggestion came from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi. "We have had a fiscal compact," Draghi told the economic and monetary affairs committee of the European Parliament on Wednesday, referring to the treaty European governments signed in March, pledging to toughen their spending rules. "What is most present in my mind now is to have a growth compact."
But the unanimous approval of Draghi's suggestion conceals just how far apart its proponents are on details. What ECB President Draghi has in mind has little to do with Socialist Hollande's notions. "He doesn't necessarily have the same measures in mind as me to foster growth," Hollande admitted in a radio interview on Thursday. But this disagreement has somehow been overlooked.
This story was posted over at the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and is another contribution from Roy Stephens. The link is here.
The unemployment rate in the eurozone's fourth largest economy hit 24.4pc, the highest in the industrialised world, in the first quarter of this year, signalling that one-in-four Spaniards is out of work. Among under 25s the rate climbed to 52pc.
At least 1.7m households now have no wage earner, an increase of almost 10pc since the start of the year.
Retail figures for March, meanwhile, showed sales fell for a 21st consecutive month, as the country's deep recession bit down on consumer spending.
"The figures are terrible for everyone and terrible for the government," said Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo, the foreign minister. "Spain is in a crisis of huge proportions."
This story was posted in The Telegraph late yesterday afternoon...and I thank Roy once again for sending it along. The link is here.
The conflict between the European Union and the Ukrainian government over its treatment of jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko appears to be entering a new, more intense stage.
German President Joachim Gauck has decided to cancel his planned trip to a summit in Ukraine in May, and on Thursday German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that she might not travel to the European Football Championship, which Ukraine is co-hosting in June. There have been calls for Germany to boycott the tournament in protest over the Ukrainian government's treatment of Tymoshenko.
On Friday, Ukraine was shocked by a series of attacks in the eastern city of Dnipropetrovsk, Tymoshenko's hometown. Four explosions went off in rapid succession there, injuring at least 27 people, including nine children. The first blast was caused by a bomb hidden in a trash can near a tram stop. The second, which happened 30 minutes later, was near a cinema, and the third on a busy street. A fourth blast was also heard in the city center.
This is another Roy Stephens offering from yesterday's edition of spiegel.de...and the link to that story is here.
Iran will sell oil under the market price to counter EU oil sanctions, said the National Iranian Oil Company’s director for international affairs.
Mohsen Qamsari added that certain U.S. companies were seeking an increase in global price of oil to make domestic unconventional extraction more competitive; he placed the price of oil in the U.S. by such methods at $90 a barrel.
“While the U.S. is trying to keep oil prices high, Iran can push aside many of its rivals in the international market by supplying cheaper oil,” Qamsari told the Mehr News Agency.
He said that profiteering dealers welcome high oil prices, adding that Iran will support low oil prices.
This story was posted in the Tehran Times yesterday...and is another story courtesy of Roy Stephens. The link is here.
Whether by terrorism or judicial order, the continuing displacement of Iraq’s Kurdish minority lays bare the unfinished business of reconciliation in the wake of the American military’s withdrawal, and it is a symptom of the rapidly deteriorating relationship between the semiautonomous Kurdish government based in Erbil and the central government in Baghdad.
The schism, which is most immediately over sharing oil wealth but is more deeply about historical grievances and Kurdish aspirations for independence, raises serious questions about the future of a unified Iraq. The crisis, American officials say, is far more grave than the political tensions between the Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki and the country’s Sunni Arab minority set off by an arrest warrant on terrorism charges issued in December for Tariq al-Hashimi, the Sunni vice president.
The Kurds, unlike the Sunnis, have their own security forces, oil reserves, ports of entry and even their own de facto foreign policy, with envoys operating in other countries. This could eventually lead them to seek more independence from Baghdad.
There are lots of things going on 'under the hood' in Iraq these days...and one of them is this issue here. Most of this deep 'historical grievances' date back to the fall of the Ottoman Empire...and how it was divided up by the western allies after World War One. A terrific book on this subject is linked here. In the meantime, you'll have to settle for this story that appeared in The New York Times last Saturday. I give another tip of the hat to Roy Stephens...and this is worth the read if you have the time. The link is here.
The multitrillion-dollar global question remains: Is the emergence of BRICS a signal that we have truly entered a new multi-polar world?
Yale's canny historian Paul Kennedy (of "imperial overstretch" fame) is convinced that we either are about to cross or have already crossed a "historical watershed" taking us far beyond the post-Cold War unipolar world of "the sole superpower." There are, argues Kennedy, four main reasons for that: the slow erosion of the US dollar (formerly 85% of global reserves, now less than 60%), the "paralysis of the European project," Asia rising (the end of 500 years of Western hegemony), and the decrepitude of the United Nations.
The Group of Eight (G-8) is already increasingly irrelevant. The G-20, which includes the BRICS, might, however, prove to be the real thing. But there's much to be done to cross that watershed rather than simply be swept over it willy-nilly: the reform of the UN Security Council, and above all, the reform of the Bretton Woods system, especially those two crucial institutions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
Of all the stories that I've posted in today's column so far, this is the one I would pick as the must read out of the whole bunch. This 2-page essay was posted over at the Asia Times website early on Saturday morning...and I thank Roy Stephens for sharing it with us. The link is here.
The U.S. and European economies are still sinking, money is rushing out of Spain's banking system, and demand for physical gold is exploding and will blow up the paper gold market before long, Eric Sprott and David Baker of Sprott Asset Management write today in the company's "Markets at a Glance" commentary. Sprott and Baker write:
"We have written at length about the disconnect between the paper gold price and the physical gold market. If the demand changes stated above applied to any other market, the investing public would lose their minds. Could you imagine, for example, if the demand shifts described above were applied to the global oil market? What would happen if a single country came in from nowhere and increased its oil purchases by a factor equivalent to 30% of the world's annual oil supply? We are students first and foremost of the physical market, and the numbers stated above speak for themselves. We remain confident about gold for the simple reason that the demand we are now seeing for physical is completely unsustainable without higher prices, and we do not see that demand abating in the coming months."
This is another must read story in today's column. It's posted over at the sprott.com Internet site...and the link is here.
Gold rose for a fourth consecutive session on Friday and posted its biggest weekly gain since late February, as disappointing U.S. growth and European debt jitters boosted investment demand for the precious metal.
Bullion buying accelerated after a report showed U.S. economic growth cooled in the first quarter as businesses cut back on investment.
Some safe-haven demand also supported prices after a credit downgrade of Spain's sovereign debt by Standard & Poor's.
Gold's four-day rise was underpinned by option-related buying and after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank would not hesitate to launch another round of bond purchases to boost growth if necessary.
This Reuters story was posted on their website yesterday afternoon...and is Roy Stephens' last offering of the day. The link is here.
Only a minuscule sliver of the so-called "smart money" has found its way into gold. Much of that bite-sized slice, moreover, has recently exited gold mining equities en masse as the entire sector has been buried alive. But when the smart money reacts predictably to near-term gyrations rather than long-term fundamentals, does it really deserve the name?
I believe the only move that the really smart money is making right now is toward gold rather than away from it. Gold continues to exhibit substantial resilience as it finds its footing around the $1,650 range, which gold expert Jim Sinclair correctly pinpointed as a significant price threshold more than a decade ago. I make it my business to understand gold, and I believe my conservative price target of $2,000 per ounce is already written in stone. In fact, I think it will prove laughably conservative.
This is the second offering from Christopher Barker in less than a week. It was posted over at the Motley Fool website yesterday...and it's definitely worth reading. The link is here.
Futures Magazine's Daniel P. Collins has done a comprehensive interview with gold advocate and mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair that may be interesting even for Sinclair's many followers, as it covers not just gold but his more general economic views and some personal background. The interview is headlined "Jim Sinclair Has Something to Say".
I borrowed the above introductory paragraph from Chris Powell's GATA release. The story is posted over at the futuresmag.com website...and the link is here.
Sprott Asset Management's Eric Sprott told King World News yesterday that the world economy is not improving, that Europeans are losing confidence in their banking system and governments, that the world's debts can be handled only through currency devaluation, and that despite price suppression efforts in the futures markets, the markets for real gold and silver will break through.
This Friday blog, headlined "Global Shocks Coming, Investors Need to Prepare", is posted on the KWN website...and is also worth the read. The link is here.
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The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later, is the people versus the banks. - Lord Acton [1834-1902]
I posted a 'blast from the past' by this group about a month ago. That song has always been considered their number one hit...but my favourite has always been the one I'm posting here today. You'll know it by the end of the first bar, as the intro is instantly recognizable. Once again I thank reader Rob Cook for bringing this incredible video recording to my attention...and the link to this week's selection is here. Enjoy!
With the April delivery month off the board...and the May deliveries in gold and silver underway...the unanswered question is: "Where do we go from here?"
The "Where do we go from here?" is 100 percent up to JPMorgan et al...as it always is. They now have the structure of the Comex futures market in both gold and silver approximately back to where it was in late December...but now gold is $135 higher in price...and silver is $5 off its late-December lows.
Will they be the short-sellers of last resort on the next rally in both metals...or will they put their hands in their pockets and watch the precious metals go supernova?
If it's the latter, we'll basically have a repeat of what happened over the last four months of trading...a rally allowed to go only so high before they engineer a price decline similar to the drive-by shooting that began on February 29th. If that's the case, we'll end up with silver and gold charts that looks very similar to the 6-month charts of these metals posted here.
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But there's always the possibility that they may put their hands in their pockets...and let the chips fall where they may until a much higher price is obtained. This price may include the re-pricing of gold in order to balance the books of the world's central banks...as the asset side of their respective ledgers are looking pretty skinny with all the worthless paper that now adorns them.
I may be dreaming in Technicolor here, but those are the only two possibilities that currently stare 'da boyz' in the face.
Of course it's always possible that we could also go lower from here...but the law of diminishing returns is upon them...and they know it. Even if they could drive the price back down to the late-December lows of $26 the ounce in silver and $1,525 the ounce in gold...the question has to asked as to how much more of their short position they can cover, or how much more technical fund short selling they can instigate? I'd say not a lot...and they know that as well.
As I [and others] have been saying for years, one of these days we'll be looking at the end of the current economic, financial and monetary system as we know it...and that day is coming up fast. And when that day does arrive, all the money printing in the world won't prevent a melt-down in all things paper. The 'powers that be' know that, too.
Of course they'll do anything to prevent that, but if they absolutely have to, they'll reach for the last tool in their kit...and that's gold.
That's why I'm still "all in". It's my belief that when that day does arrive, 'da boyz' will spring it on a mostly unsuspecting world when the markets are closed on some weekend when everyone's hands are tied. It will be the "Old World" on Friday...and the "New World" when the market open in New York on Sunday night. You'll either be all the way in...or all the way out. I've placed my bets accordingly.
With that in mind, there's still the opportunity to either readjust your portfolio, or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold...and I respectfully suggest that you take a trial subscription to either Casey Research's International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best (and current) recommendations...as well as the archives. Don't forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.
That's it for the day...and the week. I'll see you here on Tuesday...and Wednesday west of the International Date Line.