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Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.

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Message: Ed Steer this morning

India Silver Imports May Top 5,000 Tonnes in 2012

"If 'da boyz' hadn't been messing with the silver price yesterday, it might have taken out its 200-day moving average to the upside."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price fell and rose five bucks between the Far East open and the London open...but by 8:40 a.m. in New York, gold was down ten bucks from Wednesday's close.

That proved to be the low of the day...and by 1:05 p.m. Eastern gold was only down a couple of bucks from the previous day.

At the point, a serious buyer showed up...and away the price went to the upside. Surprisingly enough, this rally continued well into the New York Access Market. But at precisely 2:30 p.m. Eastern someone stepped in and put an end to the fun. At the 2:30 p.m. high, gold hit $1,783.00 spot.

From there, gold got sold off a few bucks and closed the Thursday trading session at $1,775.80 spot...up $15.50 on the day. Net volume, although quite a bit lighter than Tuesday, was still pretty chunky at 158,000 contracts.

Silver's price action was the same...but different. The Far East high came about ten minutes before the London open, which is the standard time for silver to get it's first smack of the day...with the low of the day coming shortly after 8:30 a.m. in New York.

Then, like gold, silver rallied higher. But before it could build up a real head of steam, it got sold off for a couple of hours between 11:15 a.m. and 1:15 p.m. Eastern. You can see from the Kitco chart below, that silver's two attempts to launch skyward after that were dealt with in the usual fashion.

The spike rally at 2:20 p.m. in New York blasted silver to its $34.60 spot high of the day. From there, silver got sold down and closed at $34.26 spot...a loss of 9 cents on the day. Gross volume was a staggering 93,555 contracts...but once the spreads and roll-overs out of the March contract were subtracted from the total, net volume fell to a far more reasonable 31,000 contracts.

The dollar index is still range bound...and spent all of Wednesday hanging onto the 79.00 mark by its fingernails. It's obvious that the movements in the dollar index had nothing to do with yesterday's price action in the precious metals.

The 1:15 p.m. price spike in gold is pretty easy to pick on the HUI chart below...as was the absolute high tick in gold at 2:30 p.m. It's obvious that if a not-for-profit seller hadn't shown up at that time, both gold and the HUI would have finished much higher than they did. But the HUI finished up 1.68% regardless.

Well, the silver shares didn't pay too much attention to the 9 cent loss in the metal yesterday...as the vast majority of the silver equities finished well in the black. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 1.31%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that only 43 gold contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. But the big surprise was that another 31 silver contracts were added to the February delivery month yesterday. That brings the number of open contracts in February silver up to 125...which is a lot. If all these contract holders stand for delivery, it has to happen within the next four business days...including today. Will Jefferies be the short/issuer once again? Stay tuned!

There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV on Wednesday.

The U.S. Mint reported selling 300,000 silver eagles, finally breaking the million mark on silver eagle sales at 1,250,000.

There wasn't a huge amount of activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday. They reported receiving 7,615 ounces of silver...and shipped 57,025 ounces out the door.

Silver analyst Ted Butler posted his mid-week commentary to this paying subscribers...and here are three free paragraphs...

"If the agency does the right thing and finds that the silver market had been manipulated, the silver world would change overnight. Suddenly, the world would come to realize that silver had been a crooked market from no less of a source than the US Government itself. No more vague suspicions or arguments about far out conspiracy theories about people (me) who didn’t know what they were talking about. No more anything of that sort. The matter would be settled for all time. Yes, I will derive immense personal satisfaction from such an outcome, but there is a lot more to it than that."

"In the event that the CFTC does what is correct...and what is required of them to do by the rule of law, then you better own some silver. A sudden announcement that a US Government agency found silver to have been manipulated to the downside would likely trigger off reactions from world silver producers, consumers and investors that are impossible to fully comprehend. Miners would be angry for having been cheated by artificially low prices. Industrial users and investors would rush to buy before others did so. This event alone could quickly spiral into the silver bubble I wrote about recently. The legal repercussions are also hard to fathom for a manipulation that lasted for many years. But the bottom line is that it would likely set off a buying wave never seen before. Please remember this is a highly unique situation specific only to silver; as there is no gold, or corn, or crude oil investigation underway. Therefore, any price impact should be primarily confined to silver. This outcome is not the only reason to buy and hold silver, but it would be enough if it were the only one."

"Because the price stakes are so potentially explosive in the event the CFTC moves against the silver manipulators, I think that may go a long way to explaining the agency’s foot-dragging to this point and why they need to be pressured to do their job. I know that many, perhaps most of you believe, that the silver manipulation is run by the government (thru JPM) to protect the dollar or maintain some semblance of normalcy in the financial markets. Given all the facts, that’s certainly a plausible explanation. My take is different - I think the agency knows full well that a crime is in progress but is afraid to set off what would likely be a major silver market reaction. But it's time for the Commission to man (and woman) up...and uphold their most important responsibility of all concerning manipulation."

I have the usual number of stories again today...and I hope you have the time to spend on the ones you think are worth your while.

¤ Critical Reads

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The Volcker Rule, Made Bloated and Weak

The Volcker Rule, named after Paul A. Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, is meant to bar financial institutions that are protected and subsidized by the federal government from trading for their own accounts. That is, it’s pretty simple: Traders shouldn’t speculate for their own personal gain using the money you and I pay in taxes.

Yet bank lobbyists with complicit regulators and legislators took a simple concept and bloated it into a 530-page monstrosity of hopeless complexity and vagueness.

They couldn’t kill the rule. Instead, they are getting Congress and regulators to render it morbidly obese and bedridden.

Reader Phil Barlett sent me this story from yesterday's edition of The New York Times, in the wee hours of this morning. The link is here.

NAR Continues Tradition Of Making Mockery Of Itself, Revises December Home Sales From +5% to -0.5%

And here is yet another reason why we will permanently ignore the pathologically lying real estate syndicate known as the NAR: December data was just revised from +5% to -0.5% (from 4.61 million to 4.38 million). Anyone who trades anything based on this borderline criminal self-reporting enterprise needs to have their head checked.

This story was posted over at the zerohedge.com website yesterday...and I thank reader Phil Barlett for sending it along. The link is here.

From China: To the indebted nations of Europe

Here's a couple of paragraphs from an op-ed piece that was posted on the chinadaily.com.cn website earlier today.

To be frank, some of us don't understand why the rich are holding out their hands to the poor and asking for money. For common Chinese people, the wealth of your nations is unimaginable. The average monthly income of your citizens - at around $4,000 in countries such as Germany and Belgium - is 12 times that of the average Chinese citizen. The Chinese workers in the factories in coastal cities have to work 12 hours or longer each day with basically no days off, while workers in France enjoy two months of paid vacation, national holidays and regional festivals each year. If we can save 50 percent of our earnings, surely it should be possible for you to save just 1 percent of yours.

The cause of the crisis is simple: You have spent more than you earned. If we are injecting our hard-earned money into Greek, Irish, Portuguese or Italian government bonds, you should show the political resolve to clean up your own backyard. You have to stop bickering and dragging your feet over the urgently needed austerity measures. It is time to roll up your sleeves and get the job done.

Australian reader Wesley Legrand sent me this scathing indictment late last night...and even though the writer was talking to Europe, he was also talking to America as well. It's a must read...and the link is here.

Japan uses commercial banks to disguise currency market rigging

The Bank of Japan's disclosure Tuesday that it secretly sold yen for several days in November has been followed by relative stability in the yen's exchange rate. That has prompted analysts to suggest an invisible-hand approach might be a better alternative to massive interventions that ultimately fall short.

On Oct. 31st, the BoJ -- acting at the behest of the Ministry of Finance, which sets currency policy -- entered markets to sell yen after it surged to a record high against the dollar. But analysts were caught off guard by MoF's admission that between Nov. 1 and Nov. 4, it conducted an additional $13.3 billion worth of "stealth intervention" by using a limited number of commercial banks sworn to secrecy.

Gee whiz...that sounds exactly like what the Commercial banks are doing in the gold and silver markets as well. This story showed up in The Wall Street Journal on February 7th...and bears the headline "Japan's Secret Yen Interventions Could be Template for Future". It's printed in the clear in this GATA release...and the link is here.

UN nuclear inspectors declare Iran mission a disappointment

The diplomatic options for a solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis narrowed on Wednesday after a team of UN nuclear inspectors returned from Tehran without agreement on visiting a suspect site.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is due to issue its latest report on the Iranian nuclear programme on Friday, but took the unusual step of criticising Tehran's approach in a statement issued while the inspectors were still flying back to its headquarters in Vienna.

The main stumbling block was Iran's refusal to allow the IAEA team to visit a military site at Parchin, where the last agency report, issued in November, said there was a steel chamber which could have been used for testing explosives of a type performed in the development of a nuclear warhead.

This story showed up at the guardian.co.uk website yesterday...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sharing it with us. The link is here.

What Iranian Elites Think: An Inside Look at Views of the West

Israeli hawks are threatening a military strike in order to stop Iran's nuclear program and many Republican presidential candidates in the US also support action. A loose survey of students and academics in Tehran shows that even among opponents of President Ahmadinejad, anti-Western sentiment is strong.

Of course, it's difficult to ascertain the views of Iranians. State censorship is tight, and foreign journalists are rarely allowed into the country. Nevertheless, it is possible to make contact with some Iranians. And when you speak with them, you learn something quite surprising: Even if they oppose Ahmadinejad, their radical president, most of these Iranians still view their country as the victim in the current circumstances. They also view the West as an enemy and fail to consider or acknowledge that there are massive differences between hawks in Israel and doves within the Obama administration.

"After 9/11, George W. Bush systematically portrayed Iran as the bogeyman. That's happening again now. I have seen no indication that we are building a nuclear bomb," says one professor in Tehran who, like the others interviewed for this story, preferred to remain anonymous. There is no freedom of opinion in Iran, and saying the wrong thing can stir up trouble -- especially when it has to do with the country's nuclear policies.

This short story appeared on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and the link is here.

Negative Salaries, Negative Bailout And Now Negative Gold - Greece Just Became The Bankster's Paradise

While Iceland is now known as the country that is the closest earthly approximation to banker hell, it is safe to say that Greece is the terrestrial equivalent of banker heaven. Because as explained earlier today, the country's population is about to get a worse deal than your average run of the mill slave - they may get whipped, but at least never have to pay for the privilege, unlike the Greeks.

The piece de resistance, and the reason why Greece is the in situ version of bankster heaven is the news from The New York Times that Greece is also about to have negative gold...

"Ms. Katseli, an economist who was labor minister in the government of George Papandreou until she left in a cabinet reshuffle last June, was also upset that Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize the gold reserves in the Bank of Greece under the terms of the new deal."

This is another posting from zerohedge.com...and I thank Wesley Legrand for bringing it to my attention. It's a must read...and the link is here.

Greece pores over bailout laws amid protests

Trade unionists, communists and pensioners angry at punishing spending cuts in Greece marched through central Athens on Wednesday as lawmakers set to work on legislation needed to secure payment of a second bailout for the debt-laden country.

Ringed by riot police, parliament debated a string of measures demanded by euro zone states in exchange for a 130 billion euro rescue, endorsed by finance ministers on Tuesday after hours of torturous negotiation in Brussels.

The bailout averts a chaotic default next month, but does little to allay doubts over Greece's long-term financial and social stability as the country faces spiraling unemployment and a recession in its fifth year.

This short Reuters piece from yesterday is definitely worth reading as well...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link is here.

IMF: No money for Greece until Europe boosts its firewall

One of the many loose ends to the Greek bail-out agreed in the early hours of Tuesday (21 February) is the lack of a firm commitment from the International Monetary Fund, pending a decision by eurozone leaders next week to merge the firepower of two bail-out funds.

According to eurozone finance ministers, the IMF is expected to make a "significant" contribution to the €130bn bail-out. German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble on Tuesday spoke of €13bn plus another €10bn from the first Greek programme committed in 2010 that have not been paid out yet.

But IMF chief Christine Lagarde on Tuesday said "significant means lots of things" and that the contribution will be decided by the board of the institution mid-March. That means the final decision will be taken after an EU summit next week when eurozone leaders are to discuss raising the joint €500bn ceiling for the two bail-out funds - the temporary European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

This story, filed from Brussels yesterday, was posted at the euobserver.com website...and, once again, I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link is here.

ECB's Mario Draghi magic corrupts bond markets

ECB boss Mario Draghi has sparked a blistering rally in global asset markets by lending banks as much as they want for three years at 1pc, but bond experts say the side-effects are toxic and the benefits are wearing off.

"It's a sugar rush," said Alberto Gallo, European credit chief at RBS. "It lowers the risk of defaults, but also lowers recovery rates if things go wrong."

Lenders must provide the ECB with collateral, at a haircut of up to 65pc, using up ever more of their balance sheets. The ECB has first claim on these assets, pushing other creditors down the pecking order. The longer it goes on, the worse it gets.

"There is no such thing as a free lunch. Liquidity today comes at the price of subordination tomorrow," said Mr. Gallo, warning that BBVA, BNP, Commerzbank, Intesa, Santander and Unicredit are all vulnerable.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is not a happy camper in this story that was posted over at The Telegraph Wednesday evening. It's another Roy Stephens offering...and the link is here.

Spain appeals to Brussels for easier deficit reduction targets

Prime minister Mariano Rajoy has reportedly asked European officials to raise Spain's debt reduction target to 5pc, claiming that reducing it to 4.4pc will be impossible.

The ongoing damage of the debt crisis – and the German-led austerity drive – could be laid bare on Thursday if the European Commission (EC) unveils a wholesale revision of the eurozone's growth forecasts, as expected. Experts said the EC is preparing to cut its growth forecasts following the radical spending cuts, tax increases and job losses across Europe.

The figures could force politicians to revise the deficit targets and strict budgetary rules in the fiscal pact just agreed by the European Union.

This is another Roy Stephens story from last night's edition of The Telegraph...and the link is here.

Commodity pool operator should have stuck to gold or silver

Yesterday, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced the filing and simultaneous settlement of charges against commodity pool operator D.E. Shaw & Co. L.P. of New York for exceeding speculative position limits in soybean and corn futures contracts in trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The order requires D.E. Shaw to pay a $140,000 civil monetary penalty and cease and desist from further violations of section 4a(b) of the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulation 150.2.

The CFTC order finds that on April 1, 2010, D.E. Shaw held a short position of 9,894 May 2010 soybean futures contracts -- a position that exceeded by 3,394 contracts the single month speculative limit of 6,500 for soybean futures. On June 18, 2010, D.E. Shaw held a short position of 13,657 December 2010 corn futures contracts -- a position that exceeded by 157 contracts the 13,500 contract single month speculative position limit for corn futures, according to the order.

CFTC Division of Enforcement staff members responsible for this case are Linda Y. Peng, David W. MacGregor, Lenel Hickson, Jr., Stephen J. Obie, and Vincent A. McGonagle.

The only commodities that the CFTC will let a company short without limit are the four precious metals...and if this company had stuck to that rule, they wouldn't have been touched. But, having said that, one wonders how JPMorgan's current 21,000 contract short position in silver [25% of the net open interest in Comex silver] stacks up against this case? Just asking. I'm sure Ted Butler is asking the same question as well...as should we all.

I dug this absolute must read story out of a GATA release yesterday. It's only three paragraphs long...and you just read 'em all...but the link to the press release posted on the cftc.org website, is here.

The Fear of Gold: Jeff Berwick

I was on a panel at the recent California Investment Conference in Palm Springs and the question was asked, "What percentage of your portfolio should be in gold bullion?"

The first panelist answered 20%. The second panelist said, up to 30%. Then it came to me.

"I have no problem with someone having 100% of their portfolio in gold," I stated bluntly. Many in the crowd laughed. Their laughter confused me. What's so funny about that, I thought?

I went on, "I think it's weird that people find my answer weird."

I've heard of Jeff...but have never met him...but I like him a lot already. As you know, I've been "all in" for years. It's obvious that "great minds thing alike"...or is it "fools seldom differ?" You be the judge, dear reader. The story was posted over at Peter Spina's website, goldseek.com yesterday...and I thank Phil Barlett for sending it to me. The link to this must read article is here.

Two King World News Blogs

The first one is headlined "Stephen Leeb - Expect $6 per Gallon Gas and Huge Surge in Gold and Silver"...and the second blog with Caesar Bryan, manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund, is entitled "Asia's Gold Buying Continues, Japanese Next."

Rio Tinto Unearths Australia's Largest Pink Diamond

Bloomberg's Sara Eisen reports that Australian mining company Rio Tinto has unearthed a 12.76 carat pink diamond that is expected to sell for at least $10 million. She speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Money Moves."

The video runs for a whole 28 seconds...and it's worth looking at. I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sharing this item with us...and the link is here.

Jim Sinclair: Big events and volatility in gold are imminent

Last night Jim Sinclair provided a detailed summary of his view of the world financial situation and writes that big events in gold are imminent, with a lot of volatility.

Sinclair's commentary is headlined "Companies with Mineable Ounces Soundest Investment for Coming Volatility". I borrowed the introduction from a GATA release, but the first one through the door with this story was reader U.D. It was posted at over at the JSMineset.com Internet site last evening...and the link is here.

James Turk: Gold and silver to be much higher by end of Q1

GoldMoney founder James Turk believes that while one can't predict what the catalyst is going to be that will force gold and silver higher, the bull market [in both] remains intact.

The audio and text version of this interview was posted over at the mineweb.com yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for his second-to-last offering in today's column. The link is here.

India silver imports may top 5,000 tons in 2012

India's silver imports may top 5,000 metric tons in 2012 due to strong investment demand, Prithviraj Kothari, the president of the Bombay Bullion Association, said Tuesday.

The country imported around 4,800 tons of silver last year, he said.

"Silver demand is expected to rise on firm industrial and investment demand," he told reporters on the sidelines of a conference.

Though demand for silver may not pick up in the next few weeks as returns from debt instruments are better than that from silver, investment interest in the white metal is expected to grow as and when the country's central bank starts lowering lending rates, Mr. Kothari said.

This story, which was filed from Mumbai, appeared in Tuesday's edition of The Wall Street Journal. It's posted in the clear in this GATA release...and I thank Roy Stephens for his final offering in today's column. It's worth running through...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against "real" goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them. - Ludwig von Mises

It was a real yawner of a day until shortly after 1:00 p.m. in New York on Wednesday afternoon. I'm guessing that there was some short covering involved, at least in gold. But in silver it looked like it was about to run away to the upside once again...and had to be managed before it did just that.

As I mentioned in this space yesterday, it would be wonderful if the rally in gold that began on Tuesday, gained some strength rather quickly...and that it did. As you can see from the 1-year gold chart below, we've clearly broken out to new highs after the December 29th low...and it just remains to be seen how high the price goes...and how long this rally lasts, or is allowed to last.

(Click on image to enlarge)

But since the rally began on Monday, it's obvious from the volume figures that the Commercial traders/bullion banks are going short against all comers...and I must admit that I'm not really looking forward to what tomorrow's Commitment of Traders Report will show. Unfortunately, what happened during Wednesday's trading day won't be included.

The Relative Strength Indicator [RSI] on the gold chart is now touching the overbought level...but as you can tell from last summer's rally in gold, an overbought condition can last for quite a while...and that may turn out to be the case here. We'll see.

The 1-year silver chart below shows that if 'da boyz' hadn't been messing with the silver price yesterday, it might have taken out its 200-day moving average to the upside...and that would have been a clear buy signal for all the TA wonks out there.

(Click on image to enlarge)

With options expiry and First Day Notice for silver in the March contract coming up hard, I'll be amazed if silver is allowed to join this party before then. And as Ted Butler said on the phone the other day, it's always possible that the shorts could get overrun...but I'll believe that when I see it.

Just as an aside, I note that both platinum and palladium have broken out as well...and both metals gapped up yesterday. Platinum is now back within $55 of the gold price.

It was very quiet all through Far East trading in gold earlier today, but moments after London opened, the gold price caught a bit of a bid...andis currently up about three bucks from Wednesday's close in New York.

The silver price hit its Far East trading low around noon Hong Kong time...and quietly began to rally from there. But the moment that London opened, a far more vigorous rally got under way...and at one time, the price was up over 50 cents, but that state of affairs wasn't allowed to last too long.

Volume in both metals is already very heavy...and the roll-overs out of the March silver contract are still ongoing at a brisk pace. It's obvious once again that these rallies are running into the usual sellers of last resort. The dollar index began to head south about 2:30 p.m. Hong Kong time...and is down about 40 basis points as of 5:20 a.m. Eastern time.

As always, I await the New York open with great interest.

I hope your Thursday goes well...and I'll see you here tomorrow.

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