Welcome To The Golden Minerals HUB On AGORACOM

Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.

Free
Message: Upcoming NI 43-101 updates

Over the next three months Golden Minerals will come out with an updated report for each of the three existing NI 43-101 resource estimates. Around year end (let's say January) a new reserve report will be issued for el Quevar, followed by Velardena in March and San Diego in April. So the entire resources of Golden Minerals will be revalued within the coming four months.

This weekend I had a look at the existing reserves of Golden Minerals at the three advanced properties to see what the inpact of these upgrades could be. For that reason I have put the Indicated and Inferred resources from the existing NI 43-101 reports next to each other.

.....................M+I........... Inferred

El Quevar....... 9.1............. 52.8

Velardena...... 35.2......... 292

San Diego........ 2.1.......... 107.2 (50% of JV)

Total.............. 46.4......... 452 (mln silver Eq ounces)

In a recent presentation Golden Minerals was talking about total resources of 40 mln in M+I and 391 mln at Inferred, which probably reflects changed price differences in gold, silver, zinc and lead, but let's stick to the totals calculated in the original NI 43-101 reports.

In my opinion, the impact of the updates on the share price could be very significant, if not huge. Today's share price is probably largely based on the cash position and the 46.4 million silver Eq. ounces in the M+I category. If the inferred resources would be valued by the market, we wouldn't have a share price of just over $5. Existing infrastructure has a value, but is probably also valued at close to zero.

Just to put things in perspective, if only 10% of the inferred resources can be transferred to the Indicated category, that would already allow for a doubling of the M+I resources to around 90 mln silver Eq.ounces. If they can transfer 30% of the inferred resources to the Indicated category, we are talking about a quadrupling of the M+I reserves to around 180 mln ounces.

Apart from the direct effect on the intrinsic value of the company such a quadrupling of indicated reserves to around 200 mln silver Eq ounces would have, it would also suddenly position the company in a totally different ball game. At 45 mln ounces you are one of the many. At 200 mln ounces you suddenly get a place in the category of hottest take-over candidates. Even more so, when also the inferred reserves can be replenished or, more probable, expanded, they might even start taking those into consideration as well.

It is not my aim here to make you all bullish, because I am sure you all here were and still are bullish on the company. But what I would appreciate is your input on the discussion on what percentage of Inferred reserves you expect to be transferred to the indicated category over the coming 4 months.

Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply