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Message: Ed Steer this morning

FT's John Dizard: Gold Borrowed From Governments or ETFs May Be Propping Up European Banks

"Any silver price declines from here won't involve very much real volume...and certainly won't be representative of true supply and demand."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Gold traded quietly and virtually unchanged until 9:30 a.m. Hong Kong time. Then the bid disappeared and the gold price cratered more that fifteen bucks in minutes. After that, gold went into a gentle decline that accelerated to the downside the moment that trading began on the Comex in New York.

The bottom was in around 10:25 a.m. Eastern...but the subsequent rally wasn't allowed to get far. The gold price then traded sideways into the close of the New York Access Market at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time.

Gold closed at $1,665.30 spot, down $46.00 on the day. This blew the doors off the 50-day moving average which, I'm sure, was the object of the exercise...plus they didn't want any money fleeing Europe to end up in gold.

Considering the size of the price decline, the volume wasn't that heavy...about 165,000 contracts

Silver, as always, was the precious metal that really got it in the neck yesterday. The high in silver was Friday night's close, as silver was under pressure right from the New York open on Sunday night. The interesting thing about the take-down in silver on Sunday night was that it began at 9:00 a.m. Hong Kong time during their Monday morning, whereas the gold take-down occurred at 9:30...a half hour later. Normally these not-for-profit sellers take down both metals at the same time.

From that point, silver fell in fits and starts through all of early London trading...and into the New York session. The bottom, like gold, came around 10:25 a.m...and the nice rally that came after that got crushed. Then another rally began shortly before Comex trading ended at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time...and the silver price struggled back to its New York opening price.

From it's Friday night close, to it's New York low on Monday morning, silver got hit for $1.45...about 4.5%. Silver closed in New York at $31.29 spot...down 94 cents on the day...2.9%. Volume wasn't overly heavy at 37,000 contracts...and the vast majority of that was high-frequency traders doing their thing.

The dollar was on a tear on Monday...but the rally didn't really switch into high gear until 2:00 a.m. Eastern...3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...and the rally was basically done by 2:00 p.m. New York time.

If you check the gold and silver charts, you'll note that if the brute force take-down in gold hadn't occurred, gold would have been only down about $12 at the New York open...despite the huge dollar rally. Then there's the matter of the rally in both gold and silver between 10:30 and 11:30 a.m. in New York. The dollar rally was in full force at that time as well.

I'd bet a huge sum that if 'da boyz' hadn't been foolin' with gold and silver prices throughout the entire Monday trading session world wide, the gold and silver charts would have looked quite a bit different...with, or without, a rally in the dollar.

The gold stocks gapped down...and then stayed down all day long. A recovery of sorts began shortly before 3:00 p.m. in New York...and by the close of trading, the HUI had recovered over a percent of its loses, closing down 3.47%. Considering that the gold price got hit for $46...it could have been a lot worse.

The silver stocks got hit just as hard...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index got hit for 3.15%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

I've had two e-mails from readers during the last week asking for an explanation of what the Silver Sentiment Index means...and how it is to be interpreted. Well, I thought it was pretty self-evident, but obviously not.

The Silver Sentiment Index is comprised of the seven largest silver stocks that are traded on North American exchanges. Their U.S. ticker symbols are posted on the graph at all times. I'm not sure if Nick weights them by market cap or by yearly silver production...not that it matters. Nick's SSI is the silver equivalent of the HUI. I hope that clears things up.

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 361 gold and 2 whole silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. The big shorts/issuers were Barclays and ABN Amro...and the big long/receiver, taking 90% of the deliveries, was the Bank of Nova Scotia. The link to the Issuers and Stoppers report is here.

There was a smallish withdrawal of 19,450 ounces of gold reported out of GLD yesterday...and no changes in SLV.

The Mint had another sales report. They sold another 4,000 ounces of gold eagles...500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...along with 478,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has reported selling 20,000 ounces of gold eagles...8,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 1,384,000 silver eagles.

I sure do hope you're getting your share, dear reader. When the precious metals [particularly silver] are getting trashed, this is the time to be buying. As Warren Buffett has always said, you have to be brave when others are fearful...and fearful when others are brave. This is one of these historic times that you have to think like that. Besides which, silver makes an excellent Christmas gift.

There are two things about giving precious metals away as gifts that you can 100% count on... a] the person who receives it, will never forget the person who gave it to them, and... b] it's one of the very few gifts that you will ever give [or receive] that will never, ever be thrown out...ever!!!

Precious metals are the gifts that literally last a lifetime. So give generously!

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that they received 770,734 troy ounces of silver last Friday...and shipped out 271,713 ounces. The link to that action is here.

Silver analyst Ted Butler sent out his weekend review to his paying subscribers...and here are two free paragraphs..

"I use the word incomprehensible to describe the daily price changes because I know the price volatility cannot be explained in terms related to normal supply/demand factors. Gold does not normally fluctuate $40 to $50, nor silver by a dollar or more, in a very short time frame with little direct news. This being the case, I also know this volatility is unnerving to most investors and observers. Therefore, it is important to try to understand the cause behind the great volatility. Clearly, the volatility can be traced to the relatively new trading mechanism of computerized High Frequency Trading (HFT), chiefly encouraged by the CME Group to enhance their trading fee revenue. Simply put, the unnerving price volatility would not exist were it not for HFT activities."

"In a very real sense, many markets, including gold and silver, have been overtaken by the rise of day trading computer robots and algorithms. On a typical day, more than 90% of all trading volume on the COMEX is conducted by HFT programs. This has been acknowledged by the markets’ prime regulator, the CFTC. It is easy to demonstrate that this HFT activity is day trading by changes in daily open interest. Therefore, this trading is of no real benefit to legitimate hedging or price discovery. In essence, all this HFT activity is only to the benefit of the few traders involved in it and all other market participants, including legitimate hedgers and the vast bulk of outside investors, are held captive by it. Barring regulatory intervention, all the long term investor can do is to steel himself against the irrational daily price volatility and use it, where possible, to his advantage (such as buying on extreme price declines). Day-trading induced price volatility, as much as it unnerves us, will not influence long term price trends."

Being Tuesday, I have a lot of stories for you today...and if you can't read them all, at least take the time to read the two or three paragraphs from each story that I cut and paste as introduction, so you at least get a flavour for them.

¤ Critical Reads

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MF Global: A romance with risk that brought on a panic

Soon after taking the reins of MF Global in 2010, Jon S. Corzine visited the Wall Street firm's Chicago offices for the first time, greeting the brokers, analysts and sales staff there.

One broker, Cy Monley, caught Mr. Corzine's eye. Unknown to MF Global's top management in New York, the employee, whose job was to match buyers and sellers in energy derivatives, was also trading a small account on the side, using the firm's capital.

"How are you making money on side bets? What else are you guys doing to make money here?" Mr. Corzine asked enthusiastically, his eyes widening, the broker recalled. The new chief executive grabbed a seat and spent an hour questioning Mr. Monley as other top executives from New York hovered impatiently nearby.

This story was posted over at The New York Times website late on Sunday evening...and I snatched it from a GATA release late last night. I consider this story very much worth reading...and the link is here.

The Denials Begin: Interactive Brokers Is First To Claim It Has Not Engaged In Commingling Rehypothecation

Now that the re-hypothecation bogeyman has been let loose, and the question of just how many paper (and apparently physical) assets have been double, triple, and n-counted (where 'n' can be a number up to "infinity") by the infinitely daisy-chained modern global financial system in which one's liability is someone else's asset....apparently up to infinity times, the next logical step was for the firms named in the original Reuters article to step up and begin denials they had anything to do with anything.

Sure enough, below is the first such response, by Interactive Brokers, claiming it has been greatly misunderstood and unlike MF Global, it has done nothing wrong at all.

This zerohedge.com story from Sunday was sent to me by reader Phil Barlett...ad the link is here.

MF Global collapse will push commodity trading to Asia, Rogers says

Commodities investor Jim Rogers told Bull Market Thinking's Tekoa Da Silva this week that while the collapse of the MF Global brokerage house is a disaster for the firm's clients, its most important effect may be to push commodity trading away from Chicago and into Asia. We'd probably wish as much, at least until the new chairman of the Chinese Communist Party turned out to be Gee Me Dy-Minh.

I thank Chris Powell for providing the above introduction...plus the imaginative translation of Jamie Dimon into Mandarin Chinese. A summary and full audio of the interview with Rogers are posted at the bullmarketthinging.com website...and the link is here.

Alasdair Macleod: Deflating the derivatives balloon

Economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod, who spoke at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London in August, writes at GoldMoney that the collapse of the MF Global brokerage house may herald the collapse of the futures and options markets as investors realize that their money is protected neither by exchanges nor governments. A transfer of trading from futures markets to physical markets, Macleod notes, would be very bad for the big short positions in gold and silver run by bullion banks.

This story is certainly worth your time, if you have it. I thank Chris Powell for wordsmithing the introduction..and the link to this short essay, posted at the goldmoney.com website, is here.

Chris Powell: Suspend habeas corpus and enact martial law?

Americans seem ready to forfeit their most basic civil liberty -- actually, all their civil liberties -- without a whimper.

By a vote of 93-7 the Senate this month approved a military appropriations bill empowering the government to designate any U.S. citizen within the country as a terrorist and to have the military hold him indefinitely without trial and without the right to habeas corpus, the right to be brought before a court for a judgment on the legality of one's imprisonment.

In effect the legislation is a declaration of martial law throughout the country.

GATA secretary-treasurer Chris Powell is the managing editor of the Journal Inquirer in his day job. Here's an editorial he posted in the paper early yesterday afternoon. It's an absolute must read...and the link is here.

Eurozone leaders deluded if they think this 'sticking plaster' treaty can solve the debt crisis

The single currency remains just as incoherent as it was last weekend, just as vulnerable to systemic collapse. The region’s banks and governments are still very highly indebted.

Eurozone leaders are deluded if they think some diplomatic sticking plaster, and a lot of bluster, can hold together an inherently unstable structure.

What’s more, to use a combination of borrowed and printed money to bail-out cash-strapped governments, which are insolvent largely because they, in turn, are standing behind insolvent banks, is to treat the symptoms of the crisis, not the cause.

This story was posted in the Saturday edition of The Telegraph...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link is here.

Chronic Pain for the Euro

The deal on Friday in Brussels to reformulate the rules of the euro zone has probably saved the shared currency for now — but there may be less to it than meets the eye.

At least four major issues still need to be resolved: how much money is needed to protect Italy now from speculative attack; whether banks will stumble because of the crisis; the isolation of Britain, which does not belong to the euro zone; and not least, whether the Brussels cure, prescribed by Germany, fits the disease.

With mounds of European debt due to be refinanced early next year, the crisis is far from over. “More tests will obviously come, and soon,” perhaps as early as the opening of financial markets on Monday, said Joschka Fischer, the former German foreign minister.

This story was posted in The New York Times yesterday...and I thank reader Phil Barlett for his second contribution to this column. The link is here.

Eurozone banking system on the edge of collapse

Senior analysts and traders warned of impending bank failures as a summit intended to solve the European crisis failed to deliver a solution that eased concerns over bank funding.

The European Central Bank admitted it had held meetings about providing emergency funding to the region's struggling banks, however City figures said a "collateral crunch" was looming.

"If anyone thinks things are getting better then they simply don't understand how severe the problems are. I think a major bank could fail within weeks," said one London-based executive at a major global bank.

This story was filed on The Telegraph website late on Friday night...and I thank reader U.K. reader David Ball for bringing it to my attention. The link is here.

The Swiss Government Is Getting Ready For The Collapse Of The Euro

The Swiss government is preparing for a collapse of the euro, according to Swiss Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf.

She told parliament that a work group was studying the imposition of capital controls and negative interest rates to protect Switzerland from the capital flight that a euro collapse would engender.

tidal wave of euros would drive up the Swiss franc, devastate Switzerland’s export economy, and devalue its vast wealth invested in other countries.

This story was posted over at the businessinsider.com website on Friday...and I thank reader U.D. for sending it along. The link is here.

British Leader Under Pressure: Cameron Insists EU Membership 'Vital' to Britain

British Prime Minister David Cameron, under fire in Europe for blocking a key EU treaty change, defended his move on Monday and said EU membership remained 'vital' to the UK. He faces pressure from euroskeptics who want Britain to quit the bloc -- while his pro-European coalition partner is fuming.

"Britain remains a full member of the EU and the events of the last week do nothing to change that," Cameron told parliament during a debate on last week's European Union summit. "Our membership of the EU is vital to our national interest. We are a trading nation and we need the single market for trade, investment and jobs. We are in the EU and we want to be," he added.

Cameron's decision not to take part in an EU treaty change aimed at tightening fiscal rules for euro-zone member states has isolated Britain in the 27-nation bloc and opened a rift in his government coalition with the pro-European Liberal Democrat party.

This story appeared on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and is another Roy Stephens offering. The link is here.

Europe's Top Bank Regulator: 'The Crisis Has Reached a Systemic Level'

A stress test performed on European banks last week found a capital shortfall of some 115 billion euros. In a SPIEGEL interview, European Banking Authority head Andrea Enria defends the decision to perform the stress test and discusses the huge challenges facing the European banking sector.

The results of the stress test are not new news...but this interview is well worth your time and is not overly long. It was posted over at spiegel.de yesterday...and is Roy Stephens last offering of the day. The link is here.

In Euro Era, Opening Bell Is a 2:30 A.M. Alarm

As the European debt crisis roils the markets, American traders who once awoke at dawn are now rising in the dead of night to gain an edge when business begins in London, Paris and Frankfurt.

Gone are the days when traders showed up to work just before the New York Stock Exchange opened at 9:30 a.m. Now, Wall Street has an unofficial opening bell: the 2:30 a.m. alarm clock.

“We have a new credo: carpe noctem — seize the night,” said Douglas A. Kass, a hedge fund manager who routinely sets his alarm for precisely that time to scan the headlines coming out of Europe.

As you are probably aware, dear reader, I am more than familiar with these hours of work. This story is definitely worth the read...and I thank Phil Barlett for sharing this story with us. It was posted in The New York Times on Saturday...and the link is here.

Little Christmas cheer for austerity-hit Europeans

The streets of downtown Lisbon are usually ablaze with Christmas lights around this time - but this year the city has put on a somber show that matches the somber mood of austerity.

The Yuletide gloom is seen across Europe's crisis-hit southern rim, as Athens and Madrid also dim the Christmas lights in a sign of how anxious countries have become about the future.

In Lisbon, the city council has cut its festivities budget to $200,000 from $1,150,000 last year, leaving main streets short on Christmas spirit. Portugal is in a double-dip recession, and austerity measures being enacted to reduce the country's crippling debt burden are expected to worsen the economic slowdown next year. The jobless rate has climbed to a record 12.9 percent.

This AP story, filed from Lisbon, was posted in The Philadelphia Inquirer on Saturday...and is Phil Barlett's fourth and final contribution to today's column. The link is here.

Noteworthy: 500 Rupee note minting up 17 fold in 10 yrs

Here's a story that I received from reader Avinash Raheja on Sunday...and I'll just cut and paste what he had to say, because I could hardly do better myself.

Below is the link to a story in today's edition of The Times of India. Just shows how the economists, experts (including some from the Royal Bank of India) are either not getting it, or [are] intentionally misleading the public about the monetary nature of this inflation that we're experiencing. They repeatedly seem to be putting the cart in front of the horse by suggesting inflation (rising prices) is a cause, rather than the effect.

Personally, I see the current wave of Inflation in India a highly 'monetary' phenomenon, built up over the last decade and more. As always in history, Indians are no different in viewing this as price rises, rather than a loss in the value of their currency. It is surely a lot more serious than is generally thought among us.

This is a very short must read posted on the timesofindia.com website...and the link is here.

GoldMoney's James Turk to speak at Vancouver conference next month

GoldMoney founder, GATA consultant, and gold and silver market analyst James Turk will join GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, GATA board member Ed Steer, and your secretary/treasurer as a speaker next month at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, sponsored by Cambridge House.

I will also be wearing my Casey Research hat when I'm there. All the details of this conference can be found in this GATA release...and the link is here.

FT's John Dizard: Gold borrowed from governments or ETFs may be propping up European banks

Just in case you think you own gold when you own ETF shares...

It appears that the faulty plumbing connections in the euro-area banking system are now creating something I have never seen before: a crisis of confidence in a monetary system that leads to a frantic selloff in gold.

As James Steel, a gold market analyst for HSBC Securities (USA), says: "Until the funding difficulties at European banks are resolved, it is difficult for us to see any near-term halt in gold lending. This may help keep gold prices on the defensive."

John Dizard wrote this article that's posted in the Sunday edition of the Financial Times. It's an absolute must read...and it's printed in the clear in this GATA release. The link is here.

Gold: Supply Crunch? What Supply Crunch?

Monday's edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch is all about gold. International Speculator editor, Louis James, does the honours...and this, too, is a must read. The link is here.

Rare 1787 Gold Coin Fetches $7.4 Million

An exceedingly rare 1787 gold Brasher doubloon has been sold for $7.4 million, one of the highest prices ever paid for a gold coin.

Blanchard and Co., the New Orleans-based coin and precious metals company that brokered the deal, said the doubloon was purchased by a Wall Street investment firm. Identities of the buyer and seller were not disclosed.

Minted by Ephraim Brasher, a goldsmith and neighbor of George Washington, the coin contains 26.66 grams of gold — slightly less than an ounce. Worth about $15 when it was minted, the gold value today would be more than $1,500.

The Brasher doubloon is considered the first American-made gold coin denominated in dollars; the U.S. Mint in Philadelphia didn't begin striking coins until the 1790s.

This AP story, filed from New Orleans, was posted at news.yahoo.com yesterday...and I thank reader Scott Pluschau for being the first person through the door with this story. It's a very interesting article...and the link is here. The photos are worth the trip.

Dramatic new video cites paper market's silver price suppression

Here's a video that was all over the Internet on the weekend. Chris Powell posted it in a GATA release yesterday...and I'll let him do the introduction. The link is here.

Indians increasingly monetize gold as collateral for loans

More than Rs 50,000 crore worth of gold is likely to be pledged this year to procure loans in a rapidly expanding gold loan market, allowing India's favourite hoarded asset to re-enter financial markets and provide a boost to the economy.

According to industry estimates, around 200 tonnes of gold have been used as collateral to raise loans by end November in 2011-12 fiscal.

A back of the envelope calculation shows nearly Rs 55,000 crore worth of the yellow metal has been pledged to raise loans to buy goods, real estate or fund short-term farm credit, providing some momentum to slowing economy.

Reader Avinash Rheja, who was kind enough to send me this story posted in The Economic Times of India yesterday, says that..."To save you the trouble of converting the figures in Rs. crores, you may simply use the yardstick that at current market for USD/INR, Rs.5,200 crs = $US 1 billion." This is another must read story...and the link is here.

Gold producers rush to boost dividends

Gold miners are rushing to boost their dividends in the hope of wooing investors from gold-linked exchange-traded funds and other vehicles.

In the latest move, Iamgold, a mid-sized producer with mines in west Africa, Canada, and Suriname, announced a 25 per cent increase in its payout on Friday. Iamgold's annual dividend is now 25 cents a share, more than four times last year's 6 cents payout.

Earlier this month, Goldcorp, another Toronto-based producer, lifted its dividend by 32 per cent, the third increase in little more than a year. Barrick Gold, the world's biggest producer by volume, pushed up its payout by a quarter.

This Financial Times story from Sunday is posted in the clear in this GATA release. It's another must read...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

It is now taking very active central bank intervention to keep the Gold "price" down. While this is going on, more and more people are discovering that there is no "safe" place to keep the precious metals other than in one's personal and private possession...If the governments of the world, and of the English-speaking world in particular - were trying to cause their citizens to shun them on purpose, they could not design a better set of policies than the ones they are following today. - Bill Buckler, Gold This Week, December 10, 2011.

Well, the Bill Buckler quote above pretty much sums up what has been going on in the gold market for the last little while. There are not markets anymore...only interventions. It's impossible to say how long this price repression will continue, but the cupboard is getting pretty bare as far as technical fund longs that are left to be liquidated...especially in silver.

The preliminary open interest numbers showed increases in both gold and silver...and I wouldn't read a thing into that. As I've said on many occasions, it could be caused by any number of things...new spreads, shorting by the tech funds, or new longs being placed by the small Commercial traders...Ted Butler's raptors. In actual fact, it's probably a combination of "all of the above".

The surprise from this preliminary report was that there was another increase in gold's December open interest...this is the third day in a row that this has occurred. This time it was 474 contracts. Obviously there are buyers looking to take delivery...and they want it now. It appears that there is now some urgency to this, as I haven't seen this delivery pattern in gold...ever.

The final open interest numbers for Friday's trading day showed smallish declines in both gold and silver.

As I mentioned at the top of this column, 'day boyz' certainly took out gold's 50-day moving average with authority yesterday...and I was somewhat surprised that the associated volume wasn't higher on such a price beating. Maybe it's an indication that there aren't that many tech fund longs that are prepared to throw in the towel.

Gold's 200-day moving average is now but a chip shot away, at least if you consider how yesterday's price action turned out. Can the Commercial traders pull it off? I don't know, but we'll find out pretty soon I would bet. Here's the 6-month gold chart...

(Click on image to enlarge)

Silver is completely cleaned out...and has been for months. Any silver price declines from here won't involve very much real volume...and certainly won't be representative of true supply and demand. Of course that's been true for decades in both silver and gold. As silver analyst Ted Butler mentioned in the 2-paragraph quote further up, this is a very illiquid market. Only the high-frequency traders make it appear otherwise...especially at these levels of open interest in the Comex futures market in silver.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Gold opened quietly in Far East trading earlier today...but at 9:30 a.m. Hong Kong time, a not-for-profit seller sold the gold price down a bit more than ten dollars, with the low in the Far East coming just after 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time. Then gold rallied a bit going into the London open..and is now back to it's Monday closing price in New York. Gold volume is already pretty chunky...north of 38,000 contracts...which is bigger volume than this time on Monday.

Silver got sold off about 50 cents during the Far East trading day, with it's low coming just before the London open. Silver has rallied off its low, and is now a few pennies above its Monday close as of 5:20 a.m. Eastern time. If the CME's volume numbers can be believed, volume is a hair under 5,300 contracts...which is higher volume than this time on Monday.

The only good thing out of all this is that Monday's price action, plus the big smack-down on Thursday, will be in Friday's Commitment of Traders Report...as will everything that happens today, fingers crossed!

Please excuse me at this point, but I'd like to point out [once again] the Holiday Sale going on at Casey Research...and this year's special deal is certainly worth serious consideration.

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As usual, this offer comes with CR's standard 90-day, 100% satisfaction guarantee. This offer expires on Friday, December 16th. How can you lose??? This is not an expense...it's an investment in your future.

I expect that it will be another interesting trading day in New York...and I'll be watching the goings-on with the usual amount of interest.

See you on Wednesday.

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