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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Tocqueville's Hathaway Muses About Intervention Against Gold

"Just like horseshoes, hand grenades and atomic bombs...close is usually good enough for most precious metal stock traders."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price opened quietly in Far East trading early Thursday morning...but it wasn't long [8:30 a.m. Hong Kong time] before a not-for-profit seller showed up...and had gold down about twenty bucks by their lunchtime.

From there, gold pretty much traded in a ten dollar range until late in the New York lunch hour, where it hit its low of the day [$1,602.70 spot] before rising to close the electronic trading session at $1,620.20 spot...down $22.50 on the day. Net volume was about the same as Wednesday's... around 180,000 contracts.

The silver price action was, as always, far more 'volatile'. Like gold, it got sold off during the early part of the Hong Kong trading day...and was down about 75 cents by 1:30 p.m. on their Thursday afternoon. But, by 10:15 a.m. in New York, silver was back above its Wednesday closing price before a serious not-for-profit seller showed up...and within the space of two and a half hours, had peeled $1.62 off the price. The low tick was $29.86 spot.

Once the seller disappeared at 12:50 p.m. Eastern time, silver gained back about half of its losses, but still closed down 65 cents at $30.58 spot. Net volume was pretty chunky at 48,000 contracts.

Here's a partial ino.com dollar chart from yesterday, as it's obvious they're having problems with it. If there's much co-relation between the dollar price action and the price action of gold and silver...particularly between 10:15 a.m. and 12:50 p.m. Eastern time, I certainly can't see it.

The gold stocks followed the precious metal price like a shadow yesterday...with the 10:15 a.m. Eastern time high...and the 12:50 p.m. low...standing out like the proverbial sore thumbs. The HUI finished down 0.84%...and after Wednesday's out-of-the-blue pounding the stock took, I guess one should be thankful for small mercies.

The silver stocks turned in a rather mixed performance, with Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index showing a decline of 'only' 1.35%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 37 gold and 15 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday. None of these deliveries removes gold from the Comex-approved depositories, which is where all this gold is stored. All that happens is that the ownership of individual bars changes from the old owner to the new owner...and all these 'owners' are to be found in the Commercial category of the Commitment of Traders.

I was told that this photo was taken in the gold vault at the Bank of England. I would suspect that the Comex vaults look somewhat similar.

(Click on image to enlarge)

There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday...and over at SLV, another 632,611 troy ounces were withdrawn.

The U.S. Mint had another sales report. The sold another 6,000 ounces of gold eagles...500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 125,000 silver eagles.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday, they reported receiving nothing as far as silver goes...but shipped 423,806 troy ounces out the door. Most of the action was at Scotia Mocatta...and the link is here.

The movements reported in this report is actual physical metal that arrives and leaves the Comex warehouses. Every single bar in these five warehouses is owned by somebody, as there is a Registered Warehouse Receipt written for every bar stating who the owner is. All of it is for sale at some price. But, for the moment, that sale price is very high, as nothing is leaving the exchange. New silver has to be brought in to meet delivery demands because all the silver bars currently sitting there gathering dust, aren't for sale at current prices. This is why there is such frantic in/out action. It's a sign of physical tightness.

Here's an interesting chart that was sent to me by West Virginia reader Simon Elliot yesterday. It shows us something that virtually all of us are painfuly aware of...and that's how poorly the precious metal equities are doing relative to the price of gold itself.

(Click on image to enlarge)

These stocks are screaming buys in my opinion...and if you were 'bottom fishing'...this would be just about as close to the bottom as you're going to get.

Since yesterday was the 20th of the month, The Central Bank of the Russian Federation updated their website for September showing their gold purchases for that month. They reported buying another 200,000 ounces, bringing their gold reserves up to 27.4 million ounces. Here's Nick Laird's graph of the banks purchases going back six years.

(Click on image to enlarge)

I have a more reasonable number of stories today. Of course that depends on your definition of the word.

¤ Critical Reads

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The companies that control the world’s wealth

A trio of complex system theorists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, claim that a select group of global bankers own a large chunk of the global economy.

The study found that of the 43,060 transnational corporations (TNCS) in existence, a group of 1,318 companies formed the heart of the world's financial system.

This group could further be distilled to a core group of 147 companies which controlled 40 per cent of the wealth. The core group was dubbed the 'super entity' by the researchers and was largely made up from corporate banks like Barclays and Goldman Sachs.

No surprises here. This story was posted over at the Australian division of finance.yahoo.com yesterday...and I thank Nick Laird for sharing it with us. It's also a must read...and the link is here.

Fed Should Buy More Mortgage Bonds: Fed Governor

The Federal Reserve should consider buying more mortgage bonds to support a fragile economic recovery and a downtrodden housing sector, Fed Board Governor Daniel Tarullo said on Thursday.

"I believe we should move back up toward the top of the list of options the large-scale purchase of additional mortgage-backed securities," Tarullo said in text prepared for deliver at a conference at Columbia University. "There is need, and ample room, for additional measures to increase aggregate demand in the near to medium term, particularly in light of the limited upside risks to inflation over the medium term."

QE3 anyone? This Reuters piece was posted over at cnbc.com early yesterday evening...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending it along. It's worth skimming...and the link is here.

Sedan again as Germany imposes terms

German victory. Defeat for France, Spain, Italy, and the Greco-Latin sphere.

My instant impression from the leaked EU summit draft is that the accord is minimalist, and largely a German Diktat. It has the makings of a diplomatic Sedan 1870.

If this is what landed on Nicolas Sarkozy’s desk at the Elysee on Wednesday, one starts to grasp, sort of, why he left Carla Bruni to labour alone as he dashed to Frankfurt to meet the two other women in his life, Chancellor Angela Merkel and IMF chief Christine Lagarde, as well as the European Central Bank’s old and new chiefs.

The text may well be very different by Sunday. It had better be.

This Ambrose Evans Pritchard from yesterday morning's edition of The Telegraph...and it's well worth the read. This is Roy Stephens first offering of today...and the link is here.

European debt crisis talks plunged into chaos as leaders announce another summit

A statement released by the Elysee Palace said that Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel would meet to discuss their "ambitious and comprehensive response" to the crisis ahead of the European Council summit on Sunday.

But in a tacit admission of the gulf between them, the statement added that resolutions would be "finally adopted" at a "second meeting no later than Wednesday".

Insiders said the weekend's summit of European leaders came close to being cancelled altogether, with the French president Mr Sarkozy having to beg German Chancellor Mrs Merkel not to pull the plug during frantic telephone calls.

This Roy Stephens offering was posted in The Telegraph just before midnight in London last night. It's a must read...and the link is here.

The World from Berlin: The 'Absurd Logic' of Leveraging the EFSF

Following the news that Berlin and Paris remain divided on how to make the euro-zone bailout fund more effective, European efforts to stem the debt crisis have taken another blow thanks to a split between the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.

The IMF has rated EU projections for Greece's debt as too optimistic, and wants to delay approval of the next tranche of aid until after the Brussels summit this weekend to see if a clearer picture emerges, EU officials said.

Without a loan payment of €8 billion euros from the EU and IMF, Greece faces a default next month, a development that could also threaten to drag Spain and Italy into the mire through a contagion effect. Euro-zone leaders are racing to agree on new steps to reduce Greece's debt, strengthen the capital of banks and leverage the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) euro backstop fund to stem contagion to bigger economies -- but progress appears slow.

This piece was posted over at the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and is Roy Stephens third offering in a row. It's well worth the read...and the link is here.

S&P sees downgrade blitz in EMU recession, threatening crisis strategy

Standard & Poor's (S&P) is to warn that a double-dip recession in Europe would imperil France's AAA rating and set off a string of downgrades across Southern Europe, undermining the EU's debt crisis strategy.

The report, due Friday, said a double-dip recession would lead to a downgrade of "one or two notches" for France, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal, both because of tumbling tax revenues and the extra costs of propping up banks.

The scenario looks increasingly likely after Germany slashed its growth forecast from 1.8pc to 1pc for 2012. Greece and Portugal are contracting at alarming speeds. Italy and Spain are already in industrial recession.

This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard story that was posted in The Telegraph yesterday evening is also well worth running through...and, once again, I thank Roy for sharing it with us. The link is here.

Anger boils over in Athens: “more and more people are willing to throw stones”

Violent clashes outside Greece's parliament in Athens marred the second day of a 48-hour general strike. Masked rioters threw stones and petrol bombs not only at police but at peaceful protesters, while police retaliated with tear gas. Late Thursday afternoon, Greek media reported that one man died during the clashes. Our Observers say the demonstrations on Wednesday and Thursday have been the biggest – and angriest – they’ve seen since the start of Greece’s debt crisis.

Thousands of people gathered in Syntagma Square outside parliament on Thursday, where lawmakers backed a new round of cuts required to secure bailouts from the IMF and the EU. These include further cuts to pensions and public sector wages as well as tax hikes. In addition, 30,000 public sector workers could be temporarily laid off.

The general strike, which began Wednesday, has paralyzed the country. All public services remain closed, and transportation has been severely disrupted.

This story, posted at the france24.com website yesterday, is another Roy Stephens offering...and the link is here.

Food inflation returns to double-digits

India's food inflation on Thursday returned to double-digits, as prices of vegetables and other staples surged, creating fresh problems for the country's embattled government.

Food inflation climbed to 10.60% for the week ending October 8 from the same period a year earlier, according to commerce ministry figures.

The rise was driven higher vegetable costs which soared 17.6% year-on-year while fruit prices were up more than 12 percent.

This story, posted over at the India Times website yesterday, is Roy Stephens final offering of the day. It's well worth skimming...and the link is here.

China rare earths supplier suspends production

China's biggest producer of rare earths is suspending production for one month in hopes of boosting slumping prices of the exotic minerals used in mobile phones and other hi-tech products.

This week's move by Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth (Group) Hi-Tech might fuel tensions with the United States and Europe. They have questioned Beijing's decision announced earlier to limit exports while it tries to develop its own manufacturers of magnets and other products made of rare earths.

In a statement through the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Baotou Steel said it wants to "balance supply and demand" after prices for rare earths fell amid uncertainty about the US and European economic outlooks.

Now if they'd just do the same thing in silver, that would make me a very happy man. This story, out of yesterday's edition of The Guardian, was sent to me by Swiss read G.B...and the link is here.

Kitco's creditor protection extended

Kitco Metals Inc. requested and has received a second Superior Court extension of creditor protection, this time until April 18, 2012. The Montreal-based company entered creditor protection in July in the wake of a Revenue Quebec clampdown against 100 companies suspected of participating in a false-billing scheme in the gold-trading sector. Revenue Quebec is seeking $300 million from Kitco, which has denied any wrongdoing and is contesting the assessment. In its latest court filing, Kitco said operations are once again relatively stable, but indicated it may transfer its scrap-gold business to a new operator if Revenue Quebec continues refusing to reimburse sales taxes. The company said such action makes it impossible to operate the business profitably.

This one-paragraph story was posted in the Montreal Gazette on Wednesday...and I thank reader Howard Brown for sending it along. The link to the hard copy is here.

Why I was completely wrong about gold

Is gold headed higher or lower? Higher, most likely, as long as the world continues to fall apart in slow motion. But really, who knows?

What has become clear to me...a former gold skeptic...is that railing against gold as a purely sentiment-driven, fundamentals-less asset is a technically correct but ultimately meaningless accusation.

And in the sweeping conundrum that has become our financial and investing landscape, that may be one of the best reasons yet to own the bararous relic.

Mike Pienciak, from over at The Motley Fool website, has finally converted from the dark side of The Force. The story is posted over at the dailyfinance.com website...and I thank reader Elliot Simon for sending it along. The link is here.

Even slipping toward $1,600, gold outperforms, Davies tells King World News

Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies told King World News yesterday that even as it has slipped back toward $1,600 gold is still performing better than most other assets...and should resume its rise shortly. An excerpt from the interview has been posted at the KWN website...and the link to the blog is here.

Chinese buyers love gold's dips in London

Last night King World News quoted a London metals trader as saying that Chinese buyers greatly enjoyed buying gold as the big commercial shorts pushed the market down during the Thursday trading day...as they try to extricate themselves from their short positions. The link to the KWN blog, headlined "London Trader - China Bought Massive Amount of Gold Today" is here.

Tocqueville's Hathaway muses about intervention against gold

Interviewed by King World News yesterday, Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway muses that central bank intervention against gold may have been undertaken to defend negotiations for more sovereign bailouts.

That would be my bet as well...and the link to this must read blog is here.

The Best Gold Stock Opportunity I've Seen in Two Years: Jeff Clark

We are approaching a "back up the truck" moment for the gold sector.

After Wednesday's thrashing, the Market Vectors Gold Miners Index [GDX] is down 13% for the year. Meanwhile, gold itself is up about 15%. In fact, most gold stocks are trading at the same levels they were two years ago, when gold was $1,200 per ounce. So while gold has gained more than 33%, gold stock investors don't have anything to show for it.

That may be about to change.

This very short piece, with an excellent graph, is posted over at The Growth Stock Wire website...and features Casey Research's BIG GOLD editor Jeff Clark. He sounds pretty bullish on the precious metal stocks to me...and rightly so. It's a must read as well...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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Cornerstone has started drilling its flagship Shyri gold property in Ecuador

Ecuador, one of the world’s most under-explored and resource rich countries, has a brand new mining law that supports international investment. Cornerstone is one of the first companies invited back and has begun drilling the Gama Prospect at our flagship Shyri Gold-Copper Property in southern Ecuador. Together with our joint venture partner Intrepid Mines, we will spend $6.0 million on the property during the next five years. We’re very excited about this project that lies just a few kilometers away from a previously discovered multi-million ounce deposit and has the potential to host a significant gold-copper system. Read more here about Shryi and Cornerstone’s entire portfolio of properties.

¤ The Wrap

I have to agree with John Hathaway in his King World News blog that the precious metals are certainly under some pressure from the bullion banks while the European Union is having its issues. Normally under circumstances like this, the gold [and silver] price would be moving much higher, but that certainly isn't being allowed to happen, as every rally attempt is being met by fresh selling. The fact that the gold price isn't being allowed to rise, is obviously of no concern to the gold [and silver] mining companies that we shareholders supposedly own.

For the moment, the $1,600 price level to the downside is holding...at least it did several times yesterday...but with gold's 200-day moving average beckoning around $1,546, it's entirely possible that JPMorgan et al have that as a target. Maybe the big spike down on September 26th that was close to, but did not penetrate the 200-day moving average, wasn't enough. It will be interesting to see if they can make it. Of course a retest of that September 26th low would accomplish the same thing.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Meanwhile, at the retail level in silver, the bullion is still marching out the door at a pretty good clip, as every new down day is bringing more buyers out of the woodwork. That certainly appears to be the case with The Perth Mint...and my bullion dealer had a great day yesterday as well. On top of that, silver eagle sales from the U.S. Mint continue at a blistering pace. Year-to-date the mint has sold 36.0 million silver eagles, which is well ahead of the 34.7 million eagles that were sold in all of 2010. The 40 million eagle sale mark certainly looks like a possibility. We'll see.

The preliminary open interest numbers from Thursday's trading day...and the final open interest numbers for Wednesday revealed nothing. Neither of these trading days' open interest numbers will be in today's Commitment of Traders Report anyway. Despite that, I will certainly be looking forward to today's report with great interest nonetheless.

The Far East price action earlier today was nothing special...and nothing much happened after the London open, either. Volume [as of 5:10 a.m. Eastern time] is already pretty decent in both metals, but based on the price action, I would guess that most of it is of the high-frequency trading variety.

Ted Butler pointed out that the markets in gold and silver appear very illiquid...and the big volumes that are trading don't result in much change in open interest, so he highly suspects that the H-F traders are churning this market, and not allowing any upward price momentum to develop. As for how long they can keep this up with high world-wide physical demand nipping at their heels, remains to be seen.

As BIG GOLD editor Jeff Clark mentioned further above, it's getting pretty close to 'back up the truck' time...if it hasn't already arrived. I belive that to be the case here.

Just like horseshoes, hand grenades and atomic bombs...close is usually good enough for most precious metal stock traders. Very few can ever pick the exact bottom, or top...but if they get the majority of the move, then that's usually all they want.

Taking everything into account, it's still my opinion that the bottom is in [or very close] for both metals. And, like the physical metal itself, the precious metal shares are now on sale as well. So there's still time to either re-adjust your portfolio...or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold...and I respectfully suggest that you take a trial subscription to either Casey Research's International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best [and current] recommendations...as well as the archives. A subscription to the International Speculator also includes a free subscription to BIG GOLD as well. And don't forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.

As always, I look forward to the New York trading day with great interest.

I hope you have a good weekend...and I'll see you here sometime on Saturday.

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