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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Former Presidential Adviser Lindsey Expects Return to Gold

"The next rally in silver may be instigated by the bullion banks themselves, as they drive up the price of both metals in order to get the small commercial trader to sell out their long positions to them."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

As you can see from the Kitco chart below, gold had small two rallies during early Far East trading...and both got sold off before they could develop any legs. The high for Tuesday came shortly after 10:00 a.m. Hong Kong time.

Shortly after London open...and for no reason I could fathom...someone sold the gold price down about twenty bucks, with the low of the day coming at precisely 10:00 a.m. in London trading. From that low, the price recovered a bit...but didn't do much for the rest of the day...trading in a ten dollar price range between $1,660 and $1,670 spot.

Gold closed the electronic trading session in New York at $1,663.20 spot...down $12.70...and volume [around 100,000 contracts] was on the lighter side once again, but a bit heavier than Monday, which was very light.

Silver's high on Tuesday came at precisely 10:00 a.m. Hong Kong time...and it was pretty much all down hill from there. The low came either at the noon silver fix in London [7:00 a.m. Eastern time]...or shortly after Comex trading began in New York.

From the New York low, which came at 8:50 a.m. Eastern, silver rallied quite strongly. But it was obvious, at least to me, that as the rally progressed, it ran into stronger and stronger not-for-profit selling pressure...but managed to close up a dime from Friday at $32.14 spot.

Net volume was pretty light at 30,000 contracts...but that was up about 35% from Monday's volume.

It was rather a strange day for the gold stocks, as they weren't exactly in sync with what the bullion price was doing during the first couple of hours of trading...and despite the fact that gold was down on the day, the HUI managed to close in the green...up a magnificent 0.08%. I'm not complaining, as considering the price action, it could have been much worse.

Despite the not-for-profit sellers running roughshod over the silver price during the New York trading session, Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index finished in the black again yesterday...up 1.44%. The junior silver producers on the Toronto Venture Exchange were on fire yesterday, as they played catch-up when the TSX reopened after the Monday holiday.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 72 gold, along with 5 silver contracts, were posted for delivery tomorrow. In gold, the short/issuer that delivered was the Bank of Nova Scotia, with all 72 contracts...the biggest long/receiver/stopper was the Bank of Nova Scotia. The link to the Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.

There was no activity reported in either GLD and SLV yesterday...and, for the second day running, the U.S. Mint did not report any sales.

Over at Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank for the week ending October 7th, they reported adding 106,740 ounces of gold...and a very chunky [for them] 844,118 ounces of silver. As usual, I thank reader Carl Loeb for these numbers. These funds have been adding gold and silver at a torrid pace for the last six weeks, as it's obvious that the euro is being turned into hard assets at a pretty good clip.

Monday's action over at the Comex-approved depositories is barely worth the effort to write about, as they received 1,978 ounces of silver...and shipped 64,479 troy ounces of the stuff out the door.

Here's a nifty bit of eye candy that was sent to me by Australian reader Randall Gallimore...and here's the e-mail that went with it..."Just got back from a family holiday in China, fantastic time. Thought you would enjoy this happy snap from the window of a gold dealer in downtown Shanghai [next to a Starbucks where we were taking a coffee break]. Cheers. Randall

We all thank you for this, Randall...and the 'click to enlarge feature' is worth the trip with this photo. Unless I'm totally out to lunch, those are mostly kilo bars. Try not to drool on your keyboard.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Despite my best efforts, I have a fair number of stories again today...so the final edit, as it always is, is up to you.

¤ Critical Reads

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Regulators to Set Forth Volcker Rule

The outlines of the Volcker Rule, one of the flagship provisions of the sweeping financial regulatory overhaul passed last year, will begin to take shape this week as regulators propose rules to limit the ability of most banks and Wall Street firms to use their own funds to buy and sell stocks, corporate bonds and derivatives.

The proposed rules would allow firms to do so in areas where regulators believe healthy markets would not exist without Wall Street’s own trading, including the markets for government bonds, commodities and foreign currencies. And some otherwise-forbidden bets would be allowed only if they are used as a hedge, to keep a Wall Street firm from losing money on a transaction made to accommodate a customer’s trading.

What b.s. this is. This means that the rigging of the commodity markets by the big commercial U.S. banks will be allowed to continue.

This story was from the Monday edition of The New York Times...and I thank reader Phil Barlett for sending it along. The link is here.

N.Y. faces 10,000 Wall St. cuts through 2012

The securities industry in New York City faces likely job cuts of nearly 10,000 through 2012 as Wall Street banks cope with lower trading revenue, new regulations restricting their activities, and bruised stock prices, according to a new report.

I thank Florida reader Donna Badach for sending me this marketwatch.com story yesterday...and the link is here.

Occupy Wall Street protests gain momentum across US

Protesters campaigning against corporate greed take their demands for reform of the financial system to cities across America.

"I'm extremely angry that Wall Street is taking over Main Street America. It's absolutely ridiculous that a company as large as GE pays no taxes ... people are without healthcare, without jobs. This is ridiculous," said one student on the march in Boston.

In Columbus, Ohio a protester who identified herself as a veteran said she had volunteered for military service "to protect the United States of America not the corporations of America."

This story [and video] from yesterday's edition of The Telegraph is Roy Stephens first offering of the day...and the link is here.

Jim Rickards Audio Interview on King World News

In my Saturday column I posted a blog with Jim Rickards...and Eric informed me that the audio interview wouldn't be available until Sunday. I would have posted this yesterday, but this column was already stuffed to the gills. Here's the KWN interview now...and, in my opinion, it's a must listen. The headline reads "People should be arrested & gold headed to $2,000"...and the link is here.

Slovakia rejects enhanced bail-out fund, government falls

Slovakia's lawmakers have rejected a revamp of the eurozone's European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) rescue fund in a crunch vote that also toppled the country's centre-right government which had staked its future on the motion.

Only 55 of 124 lawmakers present in the room voted in favour, while nine were against and 60 did not vote, effectively blocking the fund and toppling the four-party coalition cabinet of Prime Minister Iveta Radicova.

The country's leaders said earlier they would try to pass the EFSF revamp in a repeated vote with support from the opposition, but no date has been fixed for that vote yet.

This must read story from late last night in The Telegraph is another Roy Stephens offering...and the link is here.

Slovakia's rebel isn't a nationalist: he's the hero of all discontented Europeans

European leaders fear that Slovakia’s attempt to block the new bail-out fund is as dangerous as David’s stand against Goliath. But it’s not just the difference in size and power that’s the worry - it’s that Slovakia’s rebel might have “right” on his side.

Slovakia’s hero is Richard Sulik, head of the Freedom and Solidarity Party (SaS) the junior partner in a four-party coalition.

Mr. Sulik has articulated the dismay of many that in Greece, Slovakians are faced with a country that bent the rules, rather than sacrificed, to gain entry - and now are demanding their luxuries are maintained by others.

This is another article from The Telegraph [courtesy of Roy S.]...and it, too, is well worth your time. The link is here.

Wallooning debts

Belgium’s bill for bailing out Dexia could be much higher than meets the eye. After a weekend of frantic negotiations, Brussels is to pay 4 billion euros to take the Belgian assets of the vanquished lender into public ownership. If that was it, the direct costs to the state would be only 1 percent of GDP.

But there are many questions left unanswered after Dexia was stripped for parts on the weekend. There are only a handful of paragraphs in this article posted over at the breakingviews.com website...and it's definitely worth the read. This is Phil Barlett's second offering of the day...and the link is here.

German push for Greek default risks EMU-wide 'snowball'

Germany is pushing behind the scenes for a "hard" default in Greece with losses of up to 60pc for banks and pension funds, risking a chain-reaction across southern Europe unless credible defences are established first.

The shift in German policy has ominous echoes of last year when Chancellor Angela Merkel first called for bondholder haircuts, setting off investor flight from Ireland and a fresh spasm in the EU debt crisis.

"This could set off a snowball effect," said Andrew Roberts, credit chief at RBS. "The markets will instantly switch attention to Portugal, where two-year yields are already 17pc".

This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering was posted late Monday night in The Telegraph. Once again I thank Roy Stephens...and the link is here.

Irish bonds fall as fears grow over debt crisis

The value of Irish bonds on the secondary market fell yesterday, leading declines in the debt of Europe’s high-deficit nations, amid speculation that weaker economic expansion and vulnerable banks in the region may hamper a resolution of the euro zone debt crisis.

Benchmark 10-year Irish yields rose the most since July 6th as credit-rating company DBRS said slower growth in the US and Europe will probably damage Ireland’s prospects for recovery.

This story was posted over at the irishtimes.com website early this morning...and is another Roy Stephens offering. The link is here.

Sovereign debt crisis now systemic - Trichet

"The crisis is systemic and must be tackled decisively," Mr. Trichet told the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

"The high interconnectedness in the EU financial system has led to a rapidly rising risk of significant contagion. It threatens financial stability in the EU as a whole and adversely impacts the real economy in Europe and beyond."

This is another story from the irishtimes.com...and another contribution from Roy Stephens. The link is here.

Banks are toast, trillions more in bailouts coming, Embry tells King World News

Sprott Asset Management's John Embry told King World News yesterday that the nationalization of Dexia shows that the European banking system is toast, that trillions more of fiat currency are on their way to bail out the rest of the insolvent world, that all markets are being manipulated now, and that gold and silver investors should not be demoralized out of their positions.

I thank Chris Powell for providing the introduction to this KWN blog...and the link is here.

CFTC has votes to pass position limits

The head of the U.S. futures regulator has the support he needs to pass a long-awaited rule that would curb excessive speculation in commodity markets, a source with knowledge of the agency's rule-making told Reuters on Tuesday.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced on Tuesday that it would vote on October 18 on a rule limiting the number of contracts any one speculative trader could hold in commodity markets.

Yes, that's probably the truth...but if you think that the 1,500 contract limit for silver will be part of this, your dreaming in Technicolor. I'm sure that the interests of the general public will get sold down the river by all and sundry at the CFTC, no matter what nice things that Chilton and Gensler have been telling us for years.

This Reuters story was sent to me by Edmonton reader B.E.O...and the link is here.

South African trader is persuaded of central bank intervention against gold

Writing for MineWeb, David Levenstein of Lakeshore Trading in Rivonia, South Africa, has been persuaded by the attack on gold amid the Swiss franc's devaluation that central banks are intervening surreptitiously to push the metal's price down. Levenstein writes:

"With regard to the recent selloff in gold, I am absolutely certain that there is a great deal of truth to the commentaries that suggest that this selloff was engineered by central banks and their agents the bullion banks in an attempt to thwart the upward momentum in gold and thus take the spotlight away from the yellow metal.

This mineweb.com story is a must read from top and bottom...and I thank Nick Laird for sending it along...and Chris Powell for wordsmithing the introduction. The headline of the article reads "Politicians, Financial Regulators, Banking Officials and Gold." The link is here.

Hong Kong publication notes Western desire for gold price suppression

Here's a story that was posted over at the china-briefing.com website yesterday.

"It may become more difficult for the Western gold market regulators -- who often have an interest in seeing a reduced gold price -- to govern China's action. As a result, the little-controlled speculative fervor may drive gold prices to a new high and investors may see greater price discrepancies between the exchanges."

I stole this story...and the headline...from a GATA release. The actual headline reads "China's Pan Asia Gold Exchange: A New Playing Field for Speculators?"...and the link is here.

Silver Treasure, Worth $18 Million, Found in North Atlantic

For the second time in as many months, a torpedoed ship carrying silver has been discovered.

Last month, Odyssey announced its discovery of the British steamship Gairsoppa off Ireland and estimated its cargo at up to 240 tons of silver — a trove worth more than $200 million. The Gairsoppa was torpedoed in 1941.

This time it's the WWI British steamship Mantola sunk by a German torpedo, sending the vessel and its cargo of an estimated 20 tons of silver to the seabed more than a mile down.

The story circulating on the Internet that Jamie Dimon and Blythe Masters are heading up the salvage operations on both ships is patently false...tee hee!

This story was posted in The New York Times on Monday...and, once again, I thank Roy Stephens for this story. The link is here.

Another version of the 'stump speech' on gold price suppression

GATA's secretary treasurer has been giving numerous speeches in both Hong Kong and London during the last month. On the weekend, Chris gave this speech to a group of high-powered investors in London...with a reporter from the Financial Times in the audience.

Powell's preamble is extensive...and I'll let him carry the ball from here. This GATA release is certainly a must read...and the link is here.

Gold Eclipses Cocaine as Rebels Tap Mines

Columbia, the world’s largest cocaine producer, said illegal gold mining is becoming the “next major threat” to security as government efforts to crack down on drug crops prompt rebels to seek new revenue sources.

Unlike cocaine, gold can easily be sold into the economy and be used to finance terrorist groups, Mines and Energy Minister Mauricio Cardenas said in an interview.

This Bloomberg story was sent to me in the wee hours of this morning by Russian reader Alex Lvov, for which I thank him...and the link is here.

Beware the Myth of Gold Hedges

Here is an excellent short essay by Christopher Barker from The Motley Fool website.

For whatever reason, I could not cut and paste from this story, so you'll just have to take my word that it's an absolute must read by any gold investor...especially those that are new to the gold investment world. And it's an excellent refresher on gold hedging by those of us who have been around for the last ten or fifteen years.

The story is posted over at the dailyfinance.com website...and the graph alone is worth the trip. I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for digging up this wonderful piece...and the link is here.

China installs gold vending machine, plans 2,000 more

With plans to roll out 2,000 more throughout the country, the Beijing Agricultural Commercial Bank officially installed its first gold ATM during the Chinese National day holiday.

The machines are operated jointly by Beijing Agricultural Commercial Bank and a gold trading German firm. Plans call for installing more of them in secure locations and in private clubs at banks and at landmark buildings in large cities across the Asian country.

This story isn't new...but the number of machines certainly is. The story was filed from Mumbai on Monday...and is posted over at the mineweb.com website. It's Roy Stephens final offering of the day...and the link is here.

Gold is not in a Bubble: It’s on its way to $10,000 an ounce

At least so says Nick Barisheff in an article published in the October edition of Resource World Magazine. Nick Barisheff is the President and CEO of Bullion Management Group.

"[Gold] will continue to be subjected to the most aggressive “perception management” assault of any asset class, because it is a direct challenge to all the world’s fiat currencies. Since no paper currency is convertible to gold at this time, this is some challenge. The warnings of bubbles and the many other reasons for not owning gold will continue unabated as gold persists to $10,000 an ounce, or higher. Independent study of the underlying causes of gold’s rising price, in my opinion, is the best way to gain sufficient confidence to buy and hold gold long enough to protect one’s wealth through the turbulent years ahead."

This is your long read of the day...and the essay contains excellent charts and graphs. It's well worth your time to read this...and I thank reader U.D. for sending it my way yesterday. It's posted over at their website...bmgbullion.com...and the link is here.

Former presidential adviser Lindsey expects return to gold

I received a GATA dispatch on this story just before I hit the 'send' button at 3:20 a.m. Eastern time.

At The Heritage Foundation's Conference on a Stable Dollar last week, former Bush economic adviser and Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindsey said the weight of history leaned toward gold.

The country moved to a fiat currency during the Civil War and then restored the gold standard years later, he noted, pointing out that this kind of back-and-forth is natural. "I'm sure we'll do it again," Lindsey said. "Probably in the next 10 years."

If Larry is saying things like this, you can pretty much bet that it's a done deal. And I'll bet big money that we won't have to wait ten years, as I'll be surprised if the current financial and monetary system lasts another ten weeks.

The story was posted over at the politico.com website very late last night...and the link to this absolute must read is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

Gold is undergoing its fifth correction since 2006. Currently the 200-day MA comes in at $1,531. December gold is trading today at $1,626. The longer gold holds above it 200-day MA without breaking, the more solid and bullish the position for gold. The rising stock market means less pressure to sell gold to cover margin calls and losses in stocks. - Richard Russell

The preliminary open interest numbers gave no indication of what may have happened with the long and short positions of the major players [bullion banks] in gold or silver yesterday. Gold o.i. was up a bunch...and silver o.i. was down a bunch. But, whatever the final numbers are that are posted on the CME's website later this morning, they will appear in Friday Commitment of Traders Report.

The final open interest numbers for Monday showed almost the opposite. Gold o.i. was down...and silver o.i. was up. Beats me what it means.

However, considering the price action, neither Ted Butler or myself are expecting much change from the previous week, but you just never know. Now we just have to sit here and wait for the bullion banks to do something.

Ted figures [and I agree] that the next rally in silver may be instigated by the bullion banks themselves, as they drive up the price of both metals in order to get the small commercial trader to sell out their long positions to them. If they can arrange this, the balance of JPMorgan's short position in silver [plus a large chunk of their short position in gold] would disappear in short order. Ted also mentioned the fact that if JPMorgan et al were going to pull this off, they would wait until after the cut-off for this Friday's COT Report...which was yesterday at the close of Comex trading. He also said that if this was their plan, they could only get away with it once.

Gold and silver didn't do much of anything during Far East trading earlier today...but a serious looking rally commenced in both metals shortly before London trading began...and is continuing as of 10:17 a.m. London time...5:17 a.m. Eastern. Maybe this is the beginning of the rally that we spoke of. And, considering the price action, volume in gold is pretty low...and silver's volume is pretty light as well. That's always a good sign.

I expect that it will be another action-packed trading day in both London and New York...and I'm already more than interested in what the lay of the land will be when I switch on my computer later this morning.

I'm still 'all in'.

See you on Thursday.

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