Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Sep 29, 2011 08:49AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Gold Buyers Rush in After Price Slump
"They may have given all these short holders in silver and gold a "Get-out-of-Jail-Free" card with a certain time limit on it...and time may almost be up...especially for JPMorgan"
The price pattern for gold on Wednesday was very similar to the price pattern on Wednesday...with an initial dip and then a smallish rally into the London open. The end of this rally shortly after London trading began, proved to be the high of the day...but, by the opening of equity trading in New York six and a half hours later, the gold price was down less than five bucks from the London open.
Then the selling pressure began in earnest, with gold's low of the day coming in the thinly-traded New York Access Market around 2:25 p.m. Eastern time. The price rallied about ten bucks off that low...and finished down precisely $40 from Tuesday's closing price. Net volume was a hair lighter than Tuesday's volume at 190,000 contracts, give or take.
Here's the New York trading session on its own. You can see that gold was actually rallying a bit in the early going before the not-for-profit seller[s] showed up around 9:40 a.m. Eastern.
Silver's price rally minutes before the London open was much more pronounced than gold's. The top of that rally [around $32.60 spot] proved to be the high of the day. The silver price headed south, but rallied a bit once the London silver fix was in shortly after 12 o'clock noon in London.
This rally ended at the same time as gold's rally...around 9:35 a.m. Eastern time...and bottomed the same time as gold...around 2:25 p.m. in the thinly-traded electronic market in New York.
This silver price rallied nicely off its low, but the not-for-profit seller was there to cut that off at the knees. Silver finished down $1.95 spot on the day. Net volume was 'only' 58,000 contracts, which was down substantially from Tuesday.
Here's the New York silver chart from yesterday. If you think it looks suspiciously similar to the gold chart...you would be right about that.
The gold stocks turned out to be just another stock again yesterday. With the Dow down big, the HUI graph was almost a carbon copy of what the Dow looked like yesterday. Between the combination of falling equity markets...and a falling gold price...the shares got hit pretty good...and the HUI finished down 4.45% on the day.
I'm only speculating here, but if you check both the New York gold chart above...and compare it to the HUI in front of you...you'll find some rather striking similarities. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if gold got hit so there was no safe exit for investors fleeing the equity markets yesterday.
Considering the fact that gold was in rally mode from 8:00 a.m. Eastern time to minutes after the equity markets opened in New York, I'm sure it would have continued if a willing seller hadn't shown up.
The silver stocks got crushed across the board...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index showed an eye-watering decline of 6.83%
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The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 10 gold and 64 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow...and the link to what little action there was, is here.
After two wild days on Monday and Tuesday, there were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV yesterday.
But there was another sales report out of the U.S. Mint. They sold an additional 7,000 ounces of gold eagles...2,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and another 300,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date sales in gold eagles total 82,000 ounces...12,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and a whopping 3,725,500 silver eagles...making September the second largest sales month for silver eagles in all of 2011...and we've got three more reporting days to go in the month. Actually, September is the biggest month of silver eagle sales this year...and I'll get into why that is in my Saturday column.
The Comex-approved depositories weren't overly busy on Tuesday. They reported receiving 318,239 troy ounces of silver...and shipped only 59,629 ounces out the door. Most of the activity was at Brink's, Inc...and you can check out that action linked here.
As I mentioned yesterday, the two big deposits in SLV in the face of a 30% fall in the price of the commodity in a two and a half day period, were a complete surprise. I said that I would steal what silver analyst Ted Butler had to say about it in his mid-week commentary to paying clients yesterday...and here it is...
"A most unusual recent development has been the large inflow of metal into the big ETF, SLV, over the past few days. The extraordinary high volume sell-off in SLV “should” have resulted in a massive outflow of metal, as ordinary investors undoubtedly sold in response to the sudden collapse in price. Instead, deposits surged on a price plunge for the first time ever, if my memory serves. In fact, I had predicted in the weekly review an outflow of 10 million ounces and not the almost 7 million ounces that came in. The most plausible explanation was either big new buyers rushed in to scoop up bargains or (as I suspect) we witnessed a large covering of the massive short position in shares of SLV or some combination of the two. There are two ways to cover a short position in SLV. One involves a straight buyback of shares from sales by existing shareholders which would result in a reduction of the short position and no change in metal deposits. The other alternative is that metal could be deposited and the newly created shares could be offset against the short position. The important point here is that whatever happened, it happened because of the intentional takedown in price that was most assuredly in connection with COMEX short covering and other commercial buying. If the CFTC can’t see this, then it is only because they don’t want to see it or are incapable of seeing it."
Here are three charts that Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com slid into my in-box late last night. They are the graphs of the M1, M2 and M3 Money Supply. All are posted in dollar and percentage changes per year...with the cumulative effect show in the line chart at the top. These go all the way back to the beginning of the pure fiat currency era that started on August 15, 1971. These are very large graphs...and the 'click to enlarge' feature really helps here.
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I have a decent number of stories for you today...and a lot of them are gold related, so I hope you can find time to skim most of them.
India is now the fourth-largest economy behind the US, China and Japan. Numbers from 2010 show that the Japanese economy was worth $4.31 trillion, with India snapping at its heels at $4.06 trillion. But after March's devastating tsunami and earthquakes, Japan's economy is widely expected to contract while India's economy will grow between 7% and 8% this fiscal. "India should overtake Japan in 2011 to become the third-largest economy in the world at purchasing power parity," said Sunil Sinha, head of research and senior economist at Crisil.
This 2-paragraph story was filed from New Delhi...and posted in the India Times last week. I thank Nitin Agrawal for sending me this story...and the link to both paragraphs is here.
In the fight to put risk-limiting regulations on banks, Mark Carney, the president of the Bank of Canada, has a big name in his corner: Eric Sprott.
After Mr. Carney ended up in a well-publicized argument with JP Morgan Chase chief executive officer Jamie Dimon about whether regulators are on the right track, Mr. Sprott wrote an open letter to The Globe and Mail backing Mr. Carney.
Mr. Dimon is fighting against rules that would force huge banks like JP Morgan to hold more capital to reduce leverage, while Mr. Carney is a firm advocate of the plans. The disagreement apparently boiled over at a meeting last week where both were present, and tales of the argument landed in the headlines.
This story was posted in Canada's Globe and Mail yesterday...and I thank reader Charley Orr for sending it along. It's worth the read...and the link is here.
Germany and America were on a collision course on Tuesday night over the handling of Europe's debt crisis after Berlin savaged plans to boost the EU rescue fund as a "stupid idea" and told the White House to sort out its own mess before giving gratuitous advice to others.
German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble told Washington to mind its own business after President Barack Obama rebuked EU leaders for failing to recapitalise banks and allowing the debt crisis to escalate to the point where it is "scaring the world".
"It's always much easier to give advice to others than to decide for yourself. I am well prepared to give advice to the US government," he said.
This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering was posted over at The Telegraph website just before midnight on Tuesday night. I thank reader Scott Pluschau for sending it along...and the link is here.
U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague said his 1998 comment that the euro area was “a burning building with no exits” has been proved right and that member countries will have to live with the consequences for decades.
Hague first described the euro in those terms when he was leading the Conservative Party in opposition and Prime Minister Tony Blair favored joining the single currency. In a 1998 speech in Fontainebleau, near Paris, Hague warned that the single currency could damage the stability of Europe by tying together economies that were too different.
This story was posted over at Bloomberg yesterday...and once again I thank Scott Pluschau for sharing it with us. The link is here.
The Federal Reserve, chastised by Congress for lending money to foreign institutions including a Libyan-owned bank, is once again the lender of last resort for banks around the world it knows little about.
The failure of regulators worldwide to address European banks’ fragile dependence on short-term funding is “putting the Fed in a really awkward position.”
The extended funding comes as the U.S. central bank is already under fire for its unprecedented monetary stimulus. Republican leaders wrote Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the Board of Governors on Sept. 19, asking them to “resist further extraordinary intervention in the U.S. economy."
This is another Bloomberg story from yesterday...and is Scott Pluschau's third and final offering of the day. It's well worth the read...and the link is here.
The Russian press has reacted with alarm to the resignation Monday of Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin over Vladimir Putin's plans to run for president in 2012. The media credit Kudrin with guiding Russia through the 2008 financial crisis.
The ousting of finance minister Alexei Kudrin, a figure trusted by Western investors during over a decade in the job, is a huge blow to Russia's economy at a critical time, the press said Tuesday.
Kudrin was forced out late on Monday in a public confrontation with President Dmitry Medvedev after he became the highest-profile official to break ranks with the plan for Medvedev to swap jobs with current prime minister Vladimir Putin in 2012.
Newspapers said it was Kudrin who Putin had to thank for extinguishing the huge external debt that he inherited from the chaotic 1990s and saving the economy in the 2008 crisis with the help of reserve funds built up from oil revenues.
This AFP story was posted over at the france24.com website on Tuesday...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. In my opinion it's worth the read...and the link is here.
Hundreds of thousands of disillusioned Indians cheer a rural activist on a hunger strike. Israel reels before the largest street demonstrations in its history. Enraged young people in Spain and Greece take over public squares across their countries.
Their complaints range from corruption to lack of affordable housing and joblessness, common grievances the world over. But from South Asia to the heartland of Europe and now even to Wall Street, these protesters share something else: wariness, even contempt, toward traditional politicians and the democratic political process they preside over.
They are taking to the streets, in part, because they have little faith in the ballot box.
And as Bob Chapman is wont to say. After the ballot box comes the jury box...then the bullet box.
This story from Tuesday's edition of The New York Times is courtesy of reader Roy Stephens once again...and is your first absolute must read of the day. The link is here.
Dear Valued Customer,
It is with tremendous regret that I am writing to inform you of our recent decision to discontinue offering our services to all customers resident in the Netherlands. Please note, we at GoldMoney have explored all possible options to prevent this outcome, and this is not a decision we have taken lightly. This position is unique to the Netherlands, and unfortunately because you are resident in the Netherlands, you are one of those affected, which we very much regret.
Before I posted this story, I thought it wise to run it past James Turk, who I've known for more than ten years. This was his reply..."Yes, it's true. Even though we are regulated by the Financial Services Commission in the island of Jersey where we operate, the Dutch regulator was requiring that we also be regulated by them. So for now, closing accounts for people resident in Holland was the only practical solution. We are examining alternatives in the hope that we can accept business from Dutch residents in the future." James.
The story was posted over at the dgcmagazine.com website...and I thank reader Charley Orr for sending it along. It's a must read as well...and the link is here.
Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital told King World News yesterday that gold, silver, platinum, and copper had gotten very leveraged because for the last year they were the only investments that were working...and thus they were vulnerable to the recent washout of speculators. But, Fleckenstein adds, the underlying fundamentals, including lots of inflation already and a lot more to come, haven't changed, and he expects the metals to begin working their way up again.
I thank Chris Powell for wordsmithing the above introduction...and the link to the KWN blog is here.
Here's some information that a lot of readers have been asking me about. I'm more than interested myself, because I hold a small position in this company...and have gone through what every other shareholder has been through.
This was posted in yesterday CDD by BIG GOLD editor, Jeff Clark...and is a must read for any stockholder...or potential stockholder. The link is here. [Note to Aaron Krowne...It worked! Thanks a lot! - Ed]
Since yesterday was Wednesday, it was also 'Conversations With Casey' day over at the CR website. The topic was all about what you just read in the headline. I can't add another thing to what Doug has to say and, as always, he's interviewed by International Speculator editor, Louis James. The link is here.
Here's a story that is no surprise to me. Well, not exactly, the big surprise is that we weren't seeing these sorts of stories sooner...but late than never, I suppose.
Physical demand right now is not just decent, it is exceptionally strong, said UBS in a research note, after observing strong buying from India and elsewhere in Asia, as well as robust retail demand for coins in Europe.
Asia's gold buyers have raced to snatch up physical material after the sharp correction in prices, just as the world's biggest gold consumer India prepares for its festival season.
The surge in buying interest boosted gold premiums in the region. In Tokyo, the spread between local and global prices returned to the positive territory for the first time since March.
Gold traders in India rushed in, after domestic prices fell to their lowest in seven weeks on Monday, pushing premiums up, traders said.
The correction has come in at a right time as we are entering into the festival season, said Pinakin Vyas, assistant vice-president with IndusInd Bank, a private gold importing bank in Mumbai.
As I said yesterday in this column, all the precious metal investors on Planet Earth are gorging on this price mark down by JPMorgan et al. I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sharing this financialexpress.com story filed out of Mumbai and Singapore on Tuesday. The link to this short, but very worthwhile read, is here.
Emerging-market countries continued to top up their gold reserves in August, with Russia, Thailand and Bolivia among those to add to their holdings.
Central banks have bought gold as some seek to diversify foreign-exchange reserves that have grown along with emerging market export industries. The purchases have helped drive the price of gold higher, because they absorb supply and boost market sentiment.
This year, central-bank officials also began buying in earnest in reaction to the government debt woes affecting the U.S. dollar and the euro.
This story was posted in The Wall Street Journal yesterday...and printed in the clear in this GATA release...but I thank Washington state reader S.A. for being the first one through the door with article yesterday morning. The link to the GATA release is here.
I had the honour and privilege of meeting Hugo and his lovely wife Esther at GATA's conference in London early in August. A more charming, dedicated...and funny guy...you could never hope to meet.
Hugo is one of Mexico's richest men and, despite his wealth, he has never stopped pounding at the gates of all the power and all the money in the world.
Hugo is the president of the Mexican Civic Association...and he writes this week that the imminent failure of the euro is not a matter of the lack of "fiscal union" but rather the euro's lack of fixed gold convertibility. A golden currency, Salinas Price writes, is a great unifying and stabilizing factor in human affairs. His essay is titled "The Destiny of Mankind Hinges upon Gold"...and is posted over at the plata.com.mx website...and the link to this must read is here.
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Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise. - Alan Greenspan, U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, 24 July 1998
As I said at the close of this column yesterday, I had no idea what Wednesday would bring, so nothing would surprise me. Of course I was hoping for better than we got, but there's no use in crying over spilt milk...as this, too, shall pass.
The preliminary open interest numbers for the Wednesday trading day showed declines in both metals, so that bodes well for the final numbers later this morning.
But it's the final open interest numbers from Tuesday's trading day that had both Ted Butler and myself gobsmacked. I don't think either one of us have seen such huge declines in open interest for one day of trading reported in the CME's final numbers before. They were beyond wildly bullish...and both Ted and I are expecting a COT report for the record books tomorrow. I've already decided that I'm going to print a copy of that report for posterity, because we will probably never see a cleanout like that again.
Can we go lower in price from here? Don't know. But if I had to bet ten bucks, I'd say that we've seen the bottom...but you never can tell with these bastards that make up the '4 or less' traders in the Commercial category.
Here's the 6-month gold chart. You can see that we are rapidly closing in on the oversold mark, as the RSI is getting down there pretty good...and the MACD line is carving the lowest chart path since the big crash back in 2008.
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Here's the 6-month silver chart to go with it. You can see that we've been well into oversold territory for quite a number of days now...and extreme chart patterns like this have a very short life span.
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But whether prices go lower from here, or we actually do set new low prices, I'm now looking beyond that...and tomorrow's COT report as well. Not that I want to sound like a broken record on this, but when the next serious rally in both metals gets underway, will JPMorgan and the rest of the big shorts in silver and gold be there as short-sellers of last resort? This, dear reader, should be your only concern right now...as that's all that I'm thinking about when it comes to future events.
I think that one of the reason that the CME and the CFTC are stalling on position limits is that they may have given all these short holders in silver and gold a "Get-out-of-Jail-Free" card with a certain time limit on it...and time may almost be up...especially for JPMorgan. We'll find out soon enough if that's true or not...or if I'm just indulging in wishful thinking.
In Far East trading earlier today, gold hit its low shortly before 9:00 a.m. Hong Kong time...and has been more or less in rally mode ever since. From that low...around $1,580 spot... the gold price has now risen about $51 now that trading has been underway in London for a bit over an hour.
Silver's low came at precisely 8:00 a.m. Hong Kong time...and is now up $1.30 as of 4:10 a.m. Eastern time.
Volume is already very heavy in both metals. I've noticed that during the past week, ever since the big decline started late last Wednesday, that volumes in both metals have been particularly heavy during the normally thinly-traded Far East session. It's obvious to me that 'da boyz' are doing a lot of their dirty work there...and softening up the market in advance of both the London and New York opens. How long this phenomena continues, remains to be seen.
It will be interesting to see if this early morning rally in both silver and gold continues as Thursday progresses, or will it end up being a replay of what happened on Tuesday and Wednesday? We'll find out in short order I would think.
See you on Friday.