AUMN: Research
posted on
Sep 28, 2011 10:52AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
(Excerpt from D. Rose report--remainder were tables/charts similarly found in AUMN's 9/2/11 report projecting production expansion)
The merger with ECU leaves Golden Minerals with an expanded project pipeline, including a producing project that is ramping up capacity. We have established a new NAV and target price based on the merged entity. Merger Details On June 24th Golden Minerals announced it had entered into a merger agreement with ECU Silver Mining. The new combined entity possess a portfolio of growth projects in Mexico and Argentina, primarily. Under the transaction terms, each ECU share was exchanged for 0.05 AUMN shares and $0.000394 in cash. On September 2, the business combination was closed and AUMN and ECU shareholders now own approximately 45% and 55% respectively, of the outstanding shares of the new entity on a fully diluted basis. Expanded Project Pipeline The merger expands Golden Mineral’s project pipeline with the Velardeña District properties in Durango, Mexico. The properties consists of an NI 43-101 compliant mineral resource of 40MM Ag Eq oz Measured & Indicated and 391MM Ag Eq oz in the Inferred category. The properties also include two operational mills with a combined capacity of 820 tpd. Management has plans to invest and improve operations by lowering dilution in the nearterm, but ultimately expects to unlock the value at Velardeña by driving down to higher grade ore with wider widths, and expanding production to 2000 tpd with the construction of a new and larger sulfide mill. We estimate the ramp-up will cost ~$150MM over 4 years. Impact on NAV After including Velardeña in our model and adjusting for the effect of the merger, our calculated NAV and price target is now $53.75/sh. Given our perception of the importance now put on ramping up Velardeña, we have delayed first production at El Quevar to mid-2014. However, this may prove to be conservative and we await further guidance from management.