Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Sep 13, 2011 09:50AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Gold's Rise to Continue With Fed's Manipulations: Jim Rickards
"We haven't been under the 200-day moving average in gold for nearly three years...and the chance that we may revisit it any time soon, especially under the economic, financial and monetary situation we face today, is remote to say the least."
Gold was under pressure right from the open of Far East trading on Monday morning...and by the time London opened, it was down just a bit under thirty bucks. From that low, gold rallied a bit, recovering a bit over twenty dollars of that loss.
But that was it, as the gold price continued to edge lower until New York opened. Then the selling really got serious...and by the time that seller was through, the gold price was down over $60 on the day, briefly dipping below $1,800 spot at the low, which occurred about 2:20 p.m. Eastern time in the thinly-traded New York Access market.
The price recovered smartly from there, closing well off its low, but still down $44 on the day. Net volume was pretty heavy...around 225,000 contracts.
The silver price managed to hang in there until shortly after 10:00 a.m. in London...before it, too, bowed to the selling pressure. An intermediate low was set shortly after 9:00 a.m. in New York, with a brief rally back above $41 spot around 10:05 a.m. Eastern, before the selling pressure continued.
The seller disappeared the same moment as the seller for gold disappeared...around 2:20 p.m. Eastern time during electronic trading. The spot low for the day was reported at $39.60 by Kitco...although the data feed from the good folks over at stockcharts.com indicated that silver's spot lows was $39.75 spot. One of these data feeds is wrong...and I don't know which one it is.
From the low, silver put in a very impressive rally, and only closed down $1.09 on the trading day, which ended at 5:15 p.m. Eastern. Net volume was a very chunky 43,000 contracts.
Well, the HUI chart looks suspiciously like the Dow chart from yesterday. The Dow and the HUI peaked a few minutes after 10:00 a.m. before both rolled over. The 'recovery' in both began around 2:20 p.m. Eastern...about the precise moment that the mysterious seller in both gold and silver vanished in the New York Access Market.
From there, the Dow recovered and closed in positive territory...but with the price of gold declining all day, the best the gold stocks could do was to cut their loses substantially, which is what they did. At one point the HUI was down a hair over 5% on the day...but closed down 'only' 2.91%
For the most part, the silver shares really took it on the chin...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index was down a chunky 3.93%
(Click on image to enlarge)
The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 214 gold, along with 76 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. In gold, just about the only short/issuer was the Bank of Nova Scotia with 213 contracts...and the big long/stopper was JPMorgan in its client account with 209 contracts to be received.
In silver, the largest issuer was JPMorgan and JPMorgan and Merrill were the main stoppers. The Issuers and Stoppers Report for yesterday is worth a look...and is linked here.
The GLD ETF reported no change on Monday but, despite the price decline in silver yesterday, an authorized participant deposited a rather large 2,532,072 troy ounce of the stuff into SLV.
The U.S. Mint only had a smallish sales report. They sold another 50,000 silver eagles...and that was all. If the mint's figures are to be believed, we've certainly seen a slow down in gold and silver eagle sales so far this month...and we're nearly half-way through September already.
Friday was another busy day over at the Comex-approved warehouses. They reported receiving 1,174,358 troy ounces of silver...and only shipped 119,646 ounces out the door. The link to all that action, is here.
When gold and silver have a bad day, I always keep my eye on the prize by looking at how they are doing year-to-date vs. every other 'commodity' out there. Here's a little 'eye candy' for you...and the chart is courtesy of finviz.com.
(Click on image to enlarge)
With the weekend and all...there are no shortage of stories that I considered to be worth your time. I hope you can wade through all of them.
Here's another story from the top drawer of the 'You-can't-make-this-stuff-up' filing cabinet.
Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase & Co...and other banks may pay more to resolve claims over their alleged roles in the collapse of a $2.3 trillion mortgage- backed securities market if sophisticated investors are allowed to sue as a group along with less savvy ones.
Class-action status allows investors to pool financial and legal resources, giving them greater leverage to win larger settlements or verdicts. The banks, however, have a court ruling on their side that may help fend off such blockbuster cases. It says class status is barred because some investors are too sophisticated -- in fact, because some of them are other banks, including JPMorgan.
This longish article posted over at Bloomberg on Friday is worth skimming...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sharing it with us. The link is here.
I don't know where the expression 'the pot calling the kettle, black' came from...but it certainly applies to this story over at the huffingtonpost.com yesterday.
The United States should consider pulling out of the Basel group of global regulators, Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said in an interview with the Financial Times.
Dimon said he was supportive of forcing banks to have more capital but argued that moves to impose an additional charge on the largest global banks went too far, particularly for U.S. lenders.
With the largest derivatives book on Planet Earth, methinks that Mr. Dimon doth protest too much. Roy Stephens sent me this story...and the link is here.
Well, Martin Walker, UPI Editor Emeritus, has the brass knuckles on in this article filed from Washington yesterday. He concludes with this eye-opening paragraph...
Where this takes us as an economy dependent on mass employment to pay for consumption, taxes and pensions that still unclear. And what it does to us as a society in which most people measure much of their self-worth by their jobs and their incomes and their ability to take care of their families is more uncertain still. But the essence of this crisis is becoming clear; it is less an event than a transition. We won't be getting back to "normal"...not ever.
No shades of grey here. It's another Roy Stephens offering...and the link is here.
Bild Zeitung populism has prevailed. Germany is pushing Greece towards a hard default, risking the uncontrollable chain reaction so long feared by markets.
First we learn from planted leaks that Germany is activating "Plan B", telling banks and insurance companies to prepare for 50pc haircuts on Greek debt; then that Germany is “studying” options that include Greece's return to the drachma.
German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble has chosen to do this at a moment when the global economy is already flirting with double-dip recession, bank shares are crashing, and global credit strains are testing Lehman levels. The recklessness is breath-taking.
If it is a pressure tactic to force Greece to submit to EU-IMF demands of yet further austerity, it may instead bring mutual assured destruction.
This must read is an Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering from yesterday's edition of The Telegraph...and the link is here.
European bank shares fell sharply amid fears over a potential default for debt laden Greece and the expected downgrade of a France's major lenders.
Unicredit, the Italian lender, saw its shares suspended after falling 7.5pc, while in France Société Générale slid 12pc to its lowest level in more than 19 years.
The falls come as traders slash holdings in lenders with exposure to Greek debt with some bankers in London forecasting a default within weeks.
The euro dropped to a 10-year low versus the yen and a seven month low versus the dollar as currency traders shifted their holdings to safe havens. The shift to the yen keeps alive the risk that Japanese authorities will follow their Swiss counterparts in a wholesale intervention to weaken the yen.
This is another must read from yesterday's edition of The Telegraph...and, once again, I thank Roy Stephens for the story...and the link is here.
Greece's Socialist government is expected to announce the details of a new property tax today that it has said it must introduce to qualify for a sorely needed €8 billion loan tranche by plugging a €2 billion budget shortfall.
Announcing the new tax after an emergency cabinet meeting on Sunday morning, finance minister Evangelos Venizelos said his government had no option but to do “everything necessary” to cover the budget shortfall, following a deeper-than-expected recession.
Forecasting that the next two months would be “hellish” for the Greek people, Mr. Venizelos said the revenue shortfalls threatened the country’s vital international bailout programme.
This story was posted in The Irish Times in the wee hours of this morning...and we have Roy Stephens to thank for this as well. The link is here.
Italy has asked China to make "significant" purchases of Italian debt, the Financial Times reported on its website on Monday.
This 3-paragraph Reuters piece from yesterday afternoon is Roy Stephens last offering of the day. It's certainly worth skimming...and the link is here.
Economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod, who spoke at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London last month, today analyzes the Western central bank smashing of the gold price that was coordinated last week with the devaluation of the Swiss franc.
Macleod concludes: "Attempts to keep the price of gold down are unlikely to succeed for long. Westerners who buy gold may be unhelpful to the central banks, but you cannot stop a few hundred million Chinese and Indians from protecting their hard-earned savings. And the Chinese are busy developing their bullion markets, taking control away from the Western central banking cartel."
His commentary is posted over a the GoldMoney Internet site...and is headlined "Central Banks and the Gold Price". I thank Chris Powell for providing the above preamble...and the link is here.
Everything you always wanted to know about the future of gold stocks and much more is now answered in this 79-page monster of a report just released by Morgan Stanley, which finally joins the crowd and goes mega-bullish on gold stocks.
Maybe Morgan Stanley was one of the deep-pocket buyers of gold stocks over the last three weeks.
This excellent item was posted over at zerohedge.com on Sunday...and I thank reader Charley Orr for sending it along. The link is here.
Jean-Marie Eveillard of the First Eagle Funds told King World News yesterday that gold is far from over-owned -- indeed, it is hardly owned at all -- as a percentage of world pension funds and as a matter of its ratio with world currency and debt obligations.
Once again I thank Chris for the intro...and the link to the KWN blog, entitled "Eveillard - Expect a Mania in Gold Before This is Over', is here.
When I first read about this new Pan Asia Gold Exchange, I was underwhelmed, because they were only talking about 10 oz gold contracts. But it's what's following after that, that finally caught my attention.
Ned Naylor-Leyland, of Cheviot Asset Management, and James Turk, Director of the GoldMoney Foundation, talk about how the new Pan Asia Gold Exchange [PAGE] will change the price discovery mechanism for gold. Ned explains that the futures market currently takes the lead in price discovery over the much larger spot market and how this may change once PAGE starts to operate.PAGE will provide a valuable alternative because its fully backed, allocated gold contract will provide a better title, closer to physical, than unsecured unallocated contracts.
This 16-minute interview was recorded on August 5, 2011 in London...and is a must view/listen...and I thank Edmonton reader B.E.O. for making me see the light. The link is here.
Eric King sent me this Richard Russell blog late last night. It's not overly long...and there are some great charts. The link to the KWN blog is here.
Here's another GATA release where I stole both the introduction and the link.
Financial letter writer Peter Grandich, interviewed by GoldMoney at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London last month, discussed how he got into the precious metals sector, what he thinks of the prospects for the precious metals, why the market "bubble" is in U.S. Treasury bonds rather than in gold, and the underperformance of mining company stocks. The interview is 13 minutes long and you can watch it at the GoldMoney Internet site...and the link is here.
Sharp selloffs in gold and silver this year have been followed by steady increases, GoldMoney founder James Turk told King World News yesterday...and he expects that pattern to continue -- not only continue but to bring gold to $2,000 within 45 days. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the KWN website...and the link is here.
Writing exclusively for King World News, geopolitical analyst James G. Rickards, who spoke at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London last month, argues that central bank manipulation of the bond and currency markets is likely to push volatility into the equity markets, which, because of high-frequency trading and leveraged exchange-traded funds, are already "unstable and perhaps just one snowflake shy of an avalanche." Rickards adds that stock market volatility may pressure gold with margin calls on accounts that will be forced to sell gold to cover losses elsewhere, but over time gold will be even more widely perceived as a safe haven.
This is another KWN blog that Eric sent me yesterday...and I borrowed the preamble from Chris Powell once again. The link is here.
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Convictions are more dangerous enemies of truth than lies. - Nietzsche
Despite the fact that both metals got taken out to the woodshed yesterday, nothing has fundamentally changed in either metal. Four times in the vie business days, the bullion banks have been there to hit gold and silver prices in the face of a melt-down in the currency markets...the last time being the pegging of the Swiss franc to the Euro.
But this can only go on for so long. The dollar can only go so high...and the metals can only go so low. I note that the silver price touched its 50-day moving average yesterday and, if history is any guide, there shouldn't be too much pain left to bear...unless JPMorgan et al are gunning for the 200-day moving average...which currently sits at $35.56. This is a bridge too far in my opinion.
Here's the 3-year silver chart. It's hard to believe that less than three years ago, the silver price was under eight bucks...a price we shall never revisit.
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Even if we do revisit silver's 200-day moving average, how bad in actual fact, is that? I'd be looking at it as an opportunity to back up the truck...in both the shares and the metal.
Here's the 3-year gold chart. We haven't been under the 200-day moving average in gold for nearly three years...and the chance that we may revisit it any time soon, especially under the economic, financial and monetary situation we face today, is remote to say the least. Even the 50-day moving average looks like a bridge too far as well.
(Click on image to enlarge)
But I suppose that one should 'never say never'...but if you look at the current Commitment of Traders report, it doesn't look like 'da boyz' have that much firepower left in either metal. On top of that you can throw the seasonal demand factors in as well...and I find it all very encouraging going forward.
I know it's tough [even for me] to ignore the day-to-day...but we've come a long way...and this bull market hasn't even come close to reaching the mania phase.
I was very encouraged by what I saw in the preliminary open interest numbers for Monday's trading day...and I'm hoping the final numbers will be just as positive. Whatever they are...when they're published later this a.m...they will be included in this Friday's COT report...along with what happens today.
Both gold and silver prices rose during the thinly-traded Far East markets earlier today...but both rolled over as late afternoon wore on in Hong Kong...and gold was up about twelve bucks at the London open, with silver up a hair over 50 cents. Then the bid disappeared in gold just minutes after 9:00 a.m. in London...and the price was down under $1,800 the ounce in just a few seconds...but has recovered a bit since. Silver got hit as well, but the price action wasn't nearly as violent. As you might suspect, volume in gold is already monstrous...north of 50,000 contracts, with silver volume sneaking up on 10,000 contracts traded. Here's the Kitco gold chart that I was looking at around 5:00 a.m. Eastern time this morning.
And here's the 1-minute tick chart hot off the press from Nick Laird...
(Click on image to enlarge)
I have no idea what today's trading action in New York will bring...but with about 85% of all volume occurring during Comex hours, the tone for the entire day will be set there...although the current London price action, courtesy of JPMorgan et al, might have already given us a hint of what may be to come.
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