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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Everything the Gold Bulls Predicted is Coming True

Aug
10
"I'm sure that the bullion banks would love to drive silver below its 50-day moving average...and maybe even make it all the way down to its 200-day moving average"

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

As I mentioned at the top of this column yesterday, Casey Research is in the process of changing servers. That was supposed to happen with yesterday's edition but, as I found out late yesterday morning, that didn't happen...and has been postponed until today's edition...fingers crossed. The good folks at CR [including me] are hoping/praying that any switch-over problems are confined to today...and as I've said before, if you want to avoid server delays completely, just bookmark the GSD home page...as it's posted there long before it gets into your in-box. Ed

Gold was in rally mode the moment that trading began in New York at 6:00 p.m. on Monday night. But around 12:30 p.m. Hong Kong time on Tuesday afternoon, a seller showed up and took the price down about thirty bucks. This sell-off lasted until shortly after London opened...and the subsequent rally was going parabolic, but got cut off at the knees at the London a.m. gold fix...a phenomena I haven't seen for many a moon.

The a.m. fix proved to be the high of the day...and gold got sold down about $60 right until the end of trading in London at 4:00 p.m. British Standard Time, which is 11:00 a.m. Eastern.

The subsequent $55 rally from the London close met its end around 3:15 p.m. in the New York Access Market...and in virtually one fell swoop, the gold price plunged $50...almost back to its low at the London close five hours earlier.

From that low, gold recovered slightly...and finished the day up $26.90 on the spot market.

I'd bet a large chunk of net worth that the trading action on Tuesday was pretty much a rig job from one end of the trading day to the other. Volume was beyond immense...even larger than on Monday.

As bad as the rig job was in gold...what has been going on in the silver market for the last several months is a travesty in which JPMorgan, the CME...and the CFTC, are complicit. I would love to be a fly on the wall in Blythe Masters' office.

Silver was under 'pressure' right from the open and, like Monday's close, Tuesday's high at 12:15 p.m. in Hong Kong trading also was not allowed to cross the $39.50 price line.

Silver's absolute low came shortly before 4:00 p.m. Eastern time in the New York Access Market, where silver 'fell' eight-five cents in just minutes. This is, of course, the exact moment that gold 'fell' fifty bucks. Volume was pretty heavy.

If you check the platinum and palladium charts, there's no sign whatsoever that yesterday's after-hours smash-down was an across-the-board precious metals event. It was only specific to gold and silver. Check those two Kitco charts if you doubt me.

The dollar opened at its high of the day [around 74.90] in early Far East trading on Tuesday morning...and proceeded to gently drifted down about 30 basis points by 1:00 p.m. in New York. Then the dollar fell off the proverbial cliff, reaching its absolute low around 5:30 p.m. Eastern time yesterday afternoon.

This waterfall decline shaved another 75 basis points off the dollar index in about two and a half hours. Somewhere during that waterfall decline in the dollar, gold got hit for $50...and silver was taken to the cleaners for about 85 cents. As GATA's Chris Powell said..."There are no markets anymore, only interventions."

The gold stocks barely kept their heads above water for most of Tuesday's trading day...and were actually in negative territory [along with the Dow] when the general equity markets began to rally around 2:45 p.m. Eastern. And, by the time that the equity markets stopped trading, the HUI was up a magnificent 4.48%...and what's even more impressive than that, is that the hatchet job that JPMorgan pulled in gold and silver shortly before 4:00 p.m. Eastern time, doesn't even register on the chart below.

Despite the fact that silver was down $1.32 yesterday, almost all of the silver stocks finished up on the day...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index finished up 5.27%. That has to be seen as an incredibly bullish sign for silver prices down the road.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that three gold, along with eight silver contracts, were posted for delivery on Thursday. Nothing to see here...please move along.

The GLD ETF showed a withdrawal of 418,737 troy ounces...and there were no reported changes over at SLV.

The U.S. Mint had another sales report yesterday. They sold another 15,500 ounces of gold eagles, a smallish 65,000 silver eagles...and 4,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes. Month-to-date, the mint has sold 39,000 ounces of gold eagles...10,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 1,104,000 silver eagles.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday, they reported receiving 300,713 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 122,180 troy ounces out the door.

My bullion dealer had a monster day yesterday and, not surprisingly, he sold a lot more gold than normal...but still sold a huge amount of silver as well. I can say with absolute certainty that most silver buyers nowadays are a far more educated bunch than they were several years ago, as the words 'manipulation' and 'market rigging' are commonly heard throughout the day in the store.

What's even more amazing is that not only are we talking to the customers about the attributes of silver...which they all know about anyway...but the customers are talking to each other while they're talking to us. This is now starting to feed on itself...and the word is definitely out.

I think it was Abraham Lincoln who said that..."You can fool some of the people all of the time...and all of the people some of the time...but you can't fool all of the people, all of the time." This phrase would apply to the silver market right now.

Here's a relative performance graph that's courtesy of the good folks over at finviz.com. It tracks various equity indexes, currencies...and commodities. This particular chart is the year-to-date version. With the exception of the Swiss franc, gold and silver have outperformed everything else.

(Click on image to enlarge)

¤ Critical Reads

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Free money for at least two more years -- maybe forever?

Well, the Fed has decided to keep interest rates close to zero for at least the next two years. That just means that more people will pile into gold and silver than ever before. Year-to-date, gold is up 23.5%...and silver is up 23.0%. Only the Swiss franc has done better. Please note the graph above.

I stole this Reuters story from a GATA release earlier today...and the link is here.

Spanish bank fields Ronaldo as collateral

Here's a little something from the 'you can't make this stuff up' file cabinet....and it was a story from The Telegraph that was filed a couple of weeks back.

Cristiano Ronaldo, the most expensive footballer in history, has joined the European Central Bank [ECB] on a free transfer. Sources say the authorities want his help on the sovereign debt crisis – by kicking the can further down the road. Ronaldo could become ECB property after he was pledged as collateral for emergency liquidity support by Spain's struggling savings bank, Bankia.

It's only a handful of short paragraphs, but it's a must read in my opinion. This is what the world has come to...thanks to our banking system...and the politicians that bow down to it.

I thank reader Thorsten Winkler for this story...and the link is here.

Number of sheep thefts doubles in six months as meat prices soar

Sheep rustling is booming as the price of meat soars, according to figures obtained by The Independent, with thieves targeting British farms at almost double the rate they were six months ago.

Already 32,926 sheep have been stolen from farmyards and fields across Britain since January, compared with 38,095 taken throughout 2010, say NFU Mutual, the insurance wing of the National Farmers' Union.

I swear that I'm not making this story up. It was in the Monday edition of The Independent out of the U.K...and you can read all about it by clicking here. I thank reader U.D. for sharing it with us.

Riots spread across London on third night of violence

Riots spread to new areas of London and another UK city Monday on the third consecutive day of violence, with youths hurling missiles at police, looting shops and setting alight vehicles and buildings, leaving fires raging in several districts.

This all started the day before I left London...and it was all over the papers there. I expect that this social decline will slowly but surely get worse in all nations as we plunge further into Doug Casey's 'Greater Depression'.

This is a Roy Stephens offering from the france24.com website...and the link is here.

European Central Bank must go nuclear to save Europe

A chorus of global economists has called on the European Central Bank to go far beyond pin-prick purchases of eurozone debt.

It needs to launch quantitative easing on a massive scale to head off a eurozone debacle, if necessary purchasing half the entire stock of Italian and Spanish debt, they argue.

Stephen King, HSBC's chief economist, said the ECB should drop its ideological opposition to QE and embrace easy money in "exactly the same" way as the US Federal Reserve.

"At the heart of the problem is the ECB's unwillingness to be seen 'monetizing' government debt. Yet if the alternative to QE is the collapse of the euro or a descent into depression, then massive expansion of the ECB's balance sheet seems a small price to pay," he said.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who never met a paper dollar he didn't like, is up on his high horse in this piece from late Monday night in The Telegraph.

It's a longish read, but worth your while...as you can't make this stuff up. This is another Roy Stephens offering...and the link is here.

Bond-Buying Perils: ECB Risks Inflation and Loss of Independence

The next taboo has already been broken in Europe, with the European Central Bank now buying up Italian bonds. With its interventionist policies, the ECB is becoming increasingly similar to the US Federal Reserve. It's a path fraught with serious risks.

The original sin occurred 15 months ago -- in May 2010, when the European Central Bank (ECB) caved in for the first time. After a dispute with politicians that lasted weeks, the central bank agreed to purchase bonds from euro-zone member countries that had been brought to the abyss by the crisis. By doing so, the ECB also lost its independence -- at least that's how critics of the central bank's policy see it.

Here's a different spin on the same story as was posted in The Telegraph. This one is posted over at the German website spiegel.de...and it, too, is well worth the read. Again I thank Roy Stephens for providing this story...and the link is here.

London on Fire, So is Gold, Millions are Terrified: Nigel Farage

With gold spiking higher and London on fire, today King World News interviewed former LBMA commodities broker and trader and current MEP Nigel Farage to get his take on the situation.

This is a blog that Eric King sent me yesterday...and the link is here.

Silver to Hit $200 Within 24 Months: Stephen Leeb

With the Dow trading up 429 points and gold hitting new all-time highs, King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb to get his thoughts on where things are headed.

This is another KWN blog that Eric sent me yesterday...and the link to this one is here.

Silver vulnerable to economic trends, fund selling: Commerzbank

Chinese customs data for June showed that net silver imports had fallen for the third consecutive month, with June levels of 175 mt down 46% from a year ago. That represents the lowest level since December 2009.

In the first half of 2011, net silver imports to China declined by 29% to a total of 1,328 mt. Last year, Chinese imports of 3,579 mt were a major supporting factor for the silver price, according to analysts.

Of course, what this analyst fails to mention is the fact that the silver price is not a free-market price...and the supply/demand fundamentals don't mean anything when the price of this metal is controlled by the '8 or less' traders in the Comex futures market.

I thank Bron Suchecki over at The Perth Mint for sending me this platts.com story late last night...and the link is here.

Think gold is high? Wait till dollar bonds are dumped: Ben Davies

The West is close the point where its paper currency system is insolvent and, as a result. gold is heading to $5,000 an ounce, according to the manager of a gold fund.

"A paper currency system ultimately ends in insolvency," said Ben Davies, the chief executive of Hinde Capital in an interview with CNBC.com on Tuesday. "We have arrived at this point in the West. So why own worthless paper?"

I 'borrowed' this story from a GATA release yesterday...and I couldn't agree more with what Ben has to say. The link to this must read CNBC story is here.

'Everything the gold bulls predicted is coming true'

Gold and the Swiss franc jumped to new records after the US debt downgrade drove investors to seek haven in an ever-narrowing range of "safe" assets.

The precious metal soared more than 3 per cent to surpass $1,700 an ounce for the first time, while the Swiss franc hit a record SFr0.7497 against the dollar.

Traders said investors ranging from sophisticated hedge funds to European savers were turning to bullion as they pulled money out of tumbling equity markets. Investors in gold through exchange traded funds hold a record 2,276 tonnes of gold, more than most central banks. Dealers said sales of coins and small bars to European investors were on Monday the highest so far this year.

This is a story that appeared in the Financial Times yesterday...and it's printed in the clear in this GATA release. It, too, is a must read...and the link is here.

Constitutional money -- Don't ask, don't tell: Reg Howe

Reginald H. Howe's presentation to GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London, "Constitutional Money: Don't Ask, Don't Tell," has been posted at his Internet site, the Golden Sextant.

Reg's speech falls into the absolute must read category. Along side Jim Rickards, and Reg Howe's business partner, Bob Landis...Reg is one of the sharpest knives in the drawer. It's on the longish side...but very much worth your time...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

(Click on image to enlarge)

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¤ The Wrap

As I mentioned at the top of this column, gold trading volume was beyond enormous...a hair over 430,000 contracts net of what few roll-overs there were. I can't remember a bigger volume day than this...ever. Maybe Ted Butler will correct me when I talk to him later today.

The preliminary open interest number for Tuesday's trading day showed a very large increase of 11,935 contracts...and I'm hoping a large chunk of that will disappear when the CME issues the final o.i. number later this morning.

Monday's final open interest number in gold came as a bit of a shock, as it showed a decline of 346 contracts in open interest. The preliminary open interest number showed an increase in o.i. to the tune of 12,500 contracts...and to see it all disappear [and then some] was amazing. Even Ted was surprised.

Silver's net volume yesterday was around 60,000 contracts...and the preliminary open interest number was up a chunky 4,138 contracts, most of which will disappear in the final report.

Monday's final open interest number showed a decline of 1,358 contracts, which wasn't much of a surprise, as the preliminary o.i. number was pretty small to begin with. As you know, JPMorgan and friends have been working over the silver price pretty good lately, trying to cover as many shorts as they can.

Whatever the final open interest numbers in gold and silver that are posted on the CME's website later this morning, these will appear in Friday's Commitment of Traders Report...as Tuesday was the cut-off for that report. Unfortunately, that big spike down in both gold and silver around 3:30 p.m. yesterday won't be included, because it occurred after the Comex close at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time.

Here's the 1-year gold chart. It includes the entire rally that began in mid-August last year. The chart shows that the overbought condition is even more extreme after yesterday's trading action...with both the RSI and MACD lines setting new highs for this move...and the negative hammer representing yesterday's action, doesn't warm the cockles of my heart one bit.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here's the corresponding one-year silver chart. You can see that JPMorgan managed to punch through the 50-day moving average to the down-side, but the silver price did not close below it. I'm still of he opinion that JPMorgan et al will engineer a sell-off in gold that will enable them to pound silver one last time...because as I also said in this column yesterday, 'da boyz' are starting to run out of time.

Summer in the northern hemisphere is slowly sliding away. I noticed this yesterday when I was driving around the city, as some of the elm trees are already starting to turn...and, at this latitude, the days are getting noticeably shorter, as we're already seven weeks past the summer solstice.

(Click on image to enlarge)

I'm sure that the bullion banks would love to drive silver below its 50-day moving average...and maybe even make it all the way down to its 200-day moving average...as it has been rising steadily for the last twelve months...and is only a chip shot away if they put their minds to it.

The gold price did very well for itself during the first two hours of the trading day earlier on Wednesday in the thinly-traded Far East market, before a not-for-profit seller showed up around 8:00 a.m. Hong Kong time. Gold is now trading in a twenty dollar range between $1,740 and $1,760 spot...and is currently up sixteen bucks as of 4:43 a.m. Eastern time. Volume is already very heavy...almost 40,000 contracts as of this writing.

Silver opened trading this morning in the Far East on a very positive note until it, too, ran into that same not-for-profit seller at exactly the same moment as gold. Silver declined from this point until about an hour before London opened for trading this morning...and is up about fifty cents as of 4:45 a.m. Eastern. Volume is decent, but only a tiny fraction of gold's volume.

The dollar isn't doing a thing.

I would guess that it will be another interesting trading session in New York again today. I'm prepared for any eventuality...and so should you.

See you tomorrow.

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