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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Selling Gold Teeth to Make Ends Meet in Greece

July 2, 2011 11:41am GMT

Yesterday in Gold & Silver

Ed_GSD
July 2, 2011 11:41am GM

Not much happened with the gold price until London opened at 8:00 a.m. local time [3:00 a.m. Eastern]. Then the selling pressure began...and picked up steam the second that the Comex opened for trading at 8:20 a.m. in New York.

The low of the day was the London p.m. fix...and that stands out like a sore thumb on the Kitco chart below.

From there, the price recovered a bit in the following half hour...and then traded sideways for the rest of the day, as even the crooks at the U.S. bullion banks took a break for the July 4th long weekend. Volume was more than decent...and even higher than Thursday.

The selling pressure began on silver shortly after the Far East trading day began. Then, like gold, the downward pressure accelerated both at the London open and the Comex open...with the low coming at the London p.m. gold fix. The subsequent price recovery soon took a sharp turn to the right...and that was it for the day. Silver closed down 87 cents but, at its absolute low, the price was down $1.48. Volume was nothing special...but a bit higher than Thursday.

Basically the dollar did nothing on Friday...just like it did on Thursday. Below is the 5-day dollar chart for the week that was. You can see where the dollar's fall ended about 1:00 a.m. on Thursday morning. This was the official end of the gold and silver rally...and it has been downhill ever since.

For the week that was, the world's reserve currency was down 1.6 cents...or 2.1%. The gold price was down about 1% on the week...and silver was up less than a percent. Not too much dollar/gold price relationship here.

Needless to say, the gold stocks gapped down at the open, with the low coming at the London p.m. gold fix. They recovered a bit, but then flat-lined until shortly before 2:00 p.m. before rallying a hair...closing well off their lows of the day. The HUI finished down 1.61%.

Here's the 5-day HUI chart for the week that was.

Quite a few of the silver stocks I follow/own, trade only on the Toronto exchanges...so I don't have a feel for how most of the junior producers fared yesterday, because the markets were closed here for Canada Day. However, considering the price action, it's no surprise that Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index finished down...but it was only down 0.86% on the day. I'm very encouraged by that, as I believe that this indicates we are close to a major low in the silver price.

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 108 gold, along with another 19 silver contracts, were posted for delivery on Wednesday. JPMorgan and the Bank of Nova Scotia were bit players in the delivery report yesterday...and HSBC USA was nowhere to be found. The link to that action is here.

The GLD ETF had another withdrawal yesterday. This time it was 77,932 troy ounces...and there were no reported changes over at SLV.

There was no report from the U.S. Mint yesterday, which didn't surprise me in the slightest.

The Comex-approved depositories showed that there was no silver taken into inventory on the last day of June. However 736,472 ounces were shipped out the door, most of it from Brink's, Inc...and all of it was out of the Eligible category. Comex warehouse silver stocks as of the close of business on June 30th showed 98,713,965 ounce of silver in both categories. Here's the link to that.

I mentioned in this column yesterday that I was more than interested in what Friday's Commitment of Traders Report had to show...and I wasn't disappointed. I was expecting a very positive report...and it was certainly all of that.

The bullion banks reduced their short position in silver by a whopping 6,398 contracts...32.0 million ounces...and the Commercial net short position is now down to 145.8 million ounces. I can't remember the last time that number was that low. Ted Butler will know for sure...and I'll just 'borrow' that info from his weekend commentary and post it in my Wednesday column.

The '4 or less' traders are short 173.2 million ounces...and the '8 or less' traders are short 208.1 million ounces.

In gold, it's been a very long time since I saw the bullion banks reduce their net short position this amount in one week. The COT report showed that it fell by a stunning 42,492 contracts...or 4.25 million ounces. The Commercial net short position is now down to 20.9 million ounces.

The '4 or less' traders are short 15.2 million ounces of gold...and the '8 or less' traders are short 22.0 million ounces.

This big drop in open interest occurred because the 50-day moving average finally got taken out to the downside with some authority during the reporting week.

Without a doubt, there has been even further improvement in the internal structure of the COT report [in both metals] since the Tuesday cut-off...especially with the negative price action we've seen on both Thursday...and especially Friday. More tech fund longs are selling out as the price of gold and silver hit new lows for this move down. There is obviously more blood in this tech fund silver stone than both Ted and I had imagined. And there's some new short positions being placed as well.

Here's Ted Butler's Day's of World Production to Cover Short Positions graph that's current as of the Tuesday cut-off for yesterday's COT report. Note the days-to-cover by the 1-4 and 5-8 traders in both gold and silver.

For a comparison, here's the same graph from the middle of August 2010...just before the big JPMorgan-inspired short covering rally began last summer. Notice how dramatically the days-to-cover have improved in both metals compared to the current chart posted above.

All the price rises...and declines...since last August's low, have been JPMorgan's attempts to get out of their obscene short position in silver, using every trick in the book...including the 'drive by shooting' on Sunday, May 1st by their high frequency traders.

For some of you newbie readers out there, I'd like to post this chart which I've put up in this column more than a few times, but it's been a while since the last time.

I always talk about the London open, the Comex open and the London p.m. gold fix...and why everything seems to revolve around those times. Here's a chart that Nick Laird and I worked on for many weeks...I supervised as he did all the work.

The chart is headlined Intraday Average Gold Price Movements. The average gold prices plotted on this chart was obtained from four years of data -- from March 2006 through to March 2010 -- approximately 1,000 trading days.

The London open, the London a.m. fix, the Comex open...and the London p.m. fix are all inflection points on this graph. You can see how the prices are 'suppressed' during the time that London is open for the day, as the N.Y. bullion banks just pile on during the Comex trading session. It's worth a few minutes of your time to look this graph over.

I have a fair number of stories for you today...and a lot of them are ones that I've saved because their was just no room for them in my weekday missives. A few of them are background material that just wasn't suitable to post except for today...and with the long weekend both in the U.S. and Canada, I hope you have the time to wade through them.

[PRODUCTION NOTE: It looks like you won’t have to wade long. Unfortunately when Ed emailed his column for production, most of his Critical Reads; the Funnies; and the Wrap were all lost in cyberspace. Ed was just sick about it but didn’t have the energy at 4:00 am to recreate it all. Please read on for those Critical Reads that did make it.]

Critical Reads

Global 'train wreck' coming

Ed_GSD
July 2, 2011 11:41am GMT

The global economy is facing ''a slow-motion train wreck'' with Greece only the first nation to be hit, Australia's Reserve Bank director Warwick McKibbin says.

Referring to the most recent global economic crisis as a mere ''blip'', he said the coming crisis could undo Australia's mining boom and bring on inflation of the kind not seen since the 1970s.

Professor McKibbin told the Melbourne Institute conference dozens of European countries now had gross government debts on track to exceed 60 per cent of GDP. ''Japan is forecast to be 200 per cent of GDP, the US is forecast to be over 100 per cent of GDP,'' he said.

It's nice to see a central banker-type call it the way it is...and I thank reader U.D. for sending me this story posted on the New Zealand website stuff.co.nz. The link is here.

Great Recession cooks Friedman and Keynes: Two great theories, neither up to today’s task

Ed_GSD
July 2, 2011 11:41am GMT

Truth is, the giants Friedman and Keynes have met their Waterloo in a housing depression that shows few signs of recovery, a financial crisis that has suppressed growth and a looming debt crisis in Europe and the U.S.

We’re witnessing the collision of theory and reality. And when that happens, no matter how elegant or persuasive the theory, reality always wins.

“There’s no free lunch in monetary policy,” said Skousen. Nor is there one in fiscal policy, either. That could mean tough times for a lot of people.

Somewhere some brilliant economist might be figuring out a new way to solve these knotty problems. If he or she succeeds, there’ll be a Nobel Prize with his or her name on it. Only then will we be able to move beyond great 20th Century thinkers like Friedman and Keynes, whose moment has now passed.

I thank Florida reader Donna Badach for sending me this 2-page marketwatch.com story...and the link is here.

Goldman Sachs’s Connections With Central Banks Reach Deeper After Hiring

Ed_GSD
July 2, 2011 11:41am GMT

The revolving door between Goldman Sachs and central banks is spinning again.

The fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets said yesterday it hired Bank of England economist Andrew Benito after recruiting Huw Pill from the European Central Bank in May and Naohiko Baba from the Bank of Japan in January. Moving in the other direction, Ben Broadbent, Goldman Sachs’s ex-chief U.K. economist, started at the Bank of England last month. Former vice chairman Mario Draghi will take up the presidency of the ECB in November.

As Washington state reader S.A. said in his covering e-mail..."They win, we lose...again!". The link to the Bloomberg story is here.

Sell, sell, sell: everything must go in great fire sale

Ed_GSD
July 2, 2011 11:41am GMT

Europe's most indebted countries – and Britain – have put prized assets up for grabs to bolster their creditworthiness. So what exactly is on offer?

This article goes through six different countries and shows the lists of government assets that are on the auction block. The big question is...who's got the money to buy them...and how much will these so-called 'assets' really bring. My guess is...not as much as these countries are hoping/expecting to get.

This story from The Guardian late last night is courtesy of Swiss reader G.B...and the link to this very worthwhile read is here.

'Corrosion of the Freedom to Travel': Denmark to Reintroduce Border Controls on Tuesday

Ed_GSD
July 2, 2011 11:41am GMT

Denmark's parliament rejected a measure on Friday seeking to overturn plans to reintroduce limited border controls with countries that are within the European Schengen zone of passport-free travel. In a 55 to 50 vote, the parliament rejected a measure by the opposition to cancel the plans, which have angered neighboring Germany and Sweden.

This is where Ed’s commentary was lost, so we leave you with the link to this story.

The Funnies

Ed_GSD
July 2, 2011 11:41am GMT

Not very funny… but all lost in cyberspace.

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Columbus Gold Closes Transaction to Acquire Paul Isnard, 1.9 Million Inferred Oz. Gold Project; Plans Drilling

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The Wrap

Ed_GSD
July 2, 2011 11:41am GMT

Well folks, we sincerely apologize for the shortened Saturday edition of Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Daily. Ed was quite beside himself about all the information (and hours of work) that were lost and wanted you to know he’s sorry. We hope you enjoy this holiday weekend. Happy Fourth of July and Happy Birthday Canada.

Until next week…

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