I know Jordan. He participated in a conference I organised in Reno a few years ago and did a presentation based on technical analysis. I have a great deal of respect for him, and he has been correct on many of his predictions. However I also disagree with his personal outlook on the metals and I have chatted with him recently on that very topic. Jordan does not believe that manipulation has much to do with the current trading regime, and frankly, most of the TA crowd feel the same way. I think the fundamentals oriented investors have a completely different perspective.

I do not think we can put a timeframe on issues such as hyperinflation because they represent a tipping point when the public loses confidence in monetary policy. How can anyone predict when that may come to pass? So far the battle of propaganda seems to be holding things together but I doubt that can continue indefinitely.

On the outlook for the metals prices, that is also partly a function of public monetary confidence, but I think it is also driven by physical bullion supply. Paper bullion has played a large part in the spot price regime for the metals but it appears the drawdown of physical bullion is going to become the most pressing issue in the months ahead. The technical charts that the TA guys are using amount to flawed data because they equate paper bullion and physcial bullion. Wrong. Physical trumps paper. When it becomes clear that paper is largely unbacked, investors will reject the bogus COMEX contracts and will pay a premium to own real metal. That is when the game changes for good.

I do not care to predict when that may happen. I do know that COMEX inventories are getting thin, and I do know that physical bullion demand has been increasing YOY for a while, far outpacing the new mine supply. With the lack of CB selling to take up the slack for gold, it is a matter of time until we get a delivery default and all will change.

cheers!

mike