Mexico Mike/ Coach tonight in MIDAS
posted on
Jun 24, 2011 04:47PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
I am still doing my dd on AUMN and will comment later. However here are more of Coach's positive comments:
Mexico Mike...
Hi Bill!
As a long term ECU shareholder I am extremely happy to hear the news today that a merger has been proposed with Golden Minerals (AUM). I think this deal is a win-win for both companies, and will build a much stronger company into the future. ECU will contribute a currently producing asset with a large existing resource, strong exploration potential, and the ability for rapid growth of operations. AUM provides a diversified asset base, a tight share structure, over $100 million in cash to fund development, and a dual listing on the AMEX exchange.
ECU has been stranded in the penny stock range for more than a year, and I think much of that weakness is due to the diluted share structure, and the uncertainty of a large debt overhang that discouraged many institutional investors from taking on that level of risk. Both of these issues will be resolved by the merger transaction.
I am very bullish on the long term prospects for silver. I think companies that control large resources of silver in the ground will be among the strongest market performers in the years ahead. We have already seen evidence of this trend from stories like Silver Standard Resources and Silver Wheaton that have risen many times over as their leverage to silver increased.
After this merger closes ECU shareholders will see their ownership of silver resource increase, and the capacity for aggressive exploration activity to continue will increase. There is a deep drilling rig currently active at Velardena to target the massive sulphide zone encountered in prior exploration. This zone could potential host more than 100 million ounces of silver, but the lack of funding to carry out this expensive drilling has restrained ECU from achieving this growth target. I expect that will not be an issue for the Newco in the years ahead. I believe the potential to define a bulk tonnage, high grade silver resource to depth is the greatest factor to move the stock higher and we will have the opportunity to participate in that exploration. I also believe that Velardena is a marginal operation unless it can be expanded to a minimum of 1500 tons per day processing capacity, along with the infrastructure development underground to support that higher production level. Again, I doubt that ECU could have achieved this objective due to limitations on development funding prior to the merger. I would expect a plan to expand operations at Velardena to be presented if the merger transaction is closed, and that too will immediately add speculative value to the company.
AUM controls an impressive suite of exploration assets, including the advanced El Quevar project in Argentina. EQ has a published resource of more than 60 million ounces of silver with a very high average grade above 300 g/t. However much of the recent exploration drilling has not been included in this total, and the company remains active with 3 rigs on the project at the current time. The deposit is open for expansion in all directions. It is likely that the net high grade silver resource will be significantly expanded when the resource report is updated. I believe this project is comparable to the upside potential from Velardena. For ECU shareholders this merger adds a new dimension to gain leverage to a second world class development asset with similar silver exploration upside.
AUM also controls other projects that can provide the exploration growth for years in the future, including 4 properties in Mexico that will contribute to the core operating area in key silver producing districts.
I was happy to buy more shares and warrants of ECU today and I think this deal will be approved by shareholders of both companies. I expect to see more disclosure from the analysts that follow each company as the details are worked through and the numbers are crunched. In a nutshell, I think the risk is much lower, and the upside is much higher going forward. This may be critical to attract new institutional investors and dry up much of the trading float. I also think this deal removes the potential for a hostile takeover that may have robbed ECU shareholders of the value in the company. Instead this deal now opens the door for management to seize control of the future development and deliver an aggressive strategy to prove up new silver zones. The greatest increase in shareholder value comes from leverage to new discovery, and perhaps now this merged company will begin to reward the shareholders that have waited for that upside.
The downside in this deal comes from the assumption that Velardena will provide lower bang for the buck as part of a larger company with more diversified assets. Some people may feel that the homerun potential for the company has been stripped away and the growth in market cap may be less explosive in the future as owners of AUM. I would counter that the much tighter share structure for the Newco will support a launch to higher prices much easier than the heavy overhang of cheap paper that was limiting ECU. Consider that the company has waffled in a declining range for 2 years or more and perhaps it was time to change up the dynamics of the story. Also, the Newco will potentially attract new institutional support that can dry up a large percentage of the outstanding shares and therefore provide a rapid increase in share value as positive news comes out in the future.
These comments are my personal opinion as a shareholder. ECU has run a paid advertisement on my website for several years however I do not speak on behalf of the company. I am not a registered investment advisor and do not issue recommendations.
Cheers!
Mexico Mike
www.smartinvestment.ca