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Message: Ed Steer this morning

'Manipulation' Drove Pullback In Silver Prices: Eric Sprott

"I was impressed by the fact that gold and the dollar were rising in price together...especially in the face of the dollar's big gain."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

In the face of a strongly rising U.S. dollar, the gold price hung in there real good. This lasted until mid afternoon in Hong Kong...or until shortly after seven a.m. in London...whichever time period you prefer.

Then the gold price began to head south with some conviction...with the low price of the day coming just moments after the open of Comex trading in New York.

From there, the gold price began to rise steadily...and really caught a bit shortly after 9:30 a.m. Eastern. This happy state of affairs lasted for less than five minutes, as either the buyer disappeared...or a not-for-profit seller arrive on the scene.

The gold price hit a secondary low at half past lunchtime, before another rally of sorts began, which ended around 3:30 p.m...and gold then traded flat for the rest of the New York Access Market. Net trading volume was about 40% higher on Wednesday than it was on Tuesday.

Silver's high in the Far East came around 11:00 a.m. Hong Kong time...and by the Comex open in New York, the price was down about fifty cents.

From that low, the silver price tacked on about $1.20...hitting its New York high a few minutes after 11:00 a.m. Eastern...which was also minutes after London precious metals trading had ended for the day.

The price declined about eighty cents from there, reaching a secondary low just a few minutes after the close of Comex trading...and from that point the price rallied in fits and starts until the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. Trading volume was only slightly higher than Tuesday.

The dollar rally began at precisely 1:30 p.m. on Tuesday afternoon in New York...and hit its absolute rally high at precisely 1:30 p.m. on Wednesday afternoon in New York. You can read into that 'coincidence' anything you wish.

The other amazing thing about this rally was the fact that gold wanted to break out in New York trading...despite the fact that the world's reserve currency was screaming to the upside...and closed up about 120 basis points on the day. You'll carefully note that there no entity showed up to sell off the dollar rally when it became 'irrationally exuberant'.

Not that I want to read too much into it, but yesterday's price action spoke volumes about the real strengths of both the dollar and gold...one weak, the other strong. Below is the chart from Wednesday's trading day in the dollar. Note the precise 1:30 p.m. high price...and you'll have to check the dollar chart from my Tuesday column to note the fact that the rally began at precisely 1:30 p.m. on that day as well.

Despite the fact that the gold price finished in the black, the gold stocks couldn't quite follow suit. They started out in positive territory, but got sold off the moment that the gold price got chopped off at the knees shortly before 10:00 a.m. Eastern. I'm not really surprised considering the action in the general equity markets. The HUI only finished down 0.56%

The silver stocks closed mixed on the day...at least the ones I own...but the Silver Sentiment Index closed down a chunky 2.41%

There was smallish Daily Delivery Report from the CME yesterday. It showed that only 82 gold contracts were posted for delivery on Friday...but JPMorgan stopped/received 76 of those contracts in its proprietary [house] trading account.

There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV inventory levels yesterday.

The U.S. Mint reported selling another 67,000 silver eagles on Wednesday...and that was all.

The Comex-approved depositories reported receiving 773,018 ounces of silver on Tuesday...and shipped out 172,507 ounces as well, for a net increase of 600,511 ounces. The link to that action is here.

Here's a paragraph from silver analyst Ted Butler's Wednesday commentary to his paying subscribers...

"Silver inventory changes have been in the news recently. Thanks to a 2 million ounce withdrawal from the COMEX inventories, the total level of holdings dropped below the 100 million ounce mark for the first time in many years. Over the past two days, 8 million more ounces have been redeemed from the SLV. That brings the total amount of silver redeemed from the Trust to 55 million ounces from the end of April. As I have previously written, I think there has been a massive shift in ownership of physical silver from weak hands to strong hands, as well as a monumental shift in COMEX contracts (as evidenced in the COT). I believe this holds extremely bullish implications for the price of silver."

I was kind of hoping that I would have fewer stories today...but that didn't turn out to be the case, as I have another stack for you to run through.

¤ Critical Reads

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A Slowdown for Small Businesses

Today's first story is from yesterday's edition of The New York Times...and is courtesy of reader Phil Barlett.

In the latest sign that the economic recovery may have lost whatever modest oomph it had, more small businesses say that they are planning to shrink their payrolls than say they want to expand them.

The National Federation of Independent Business report for May showed the worst hiring prospects in eight months. The finding provides a glimpse into the pessimism of the nation’s small firms as they put together their budgets for the coming season, and depicts a more gloomy outlook than other recent (if equally lackluster) economic indicators because this one is forward-looking.

The link to the story is here.

Nebraska nuke plant totally surrounded by floodwaters: How can Omaha levees hold?

Dikes designed for a few weeks of water — 3-4 months expected, with 5+ foot rise. The 3-minute video clip is well worth your time.

I thank Casey Research's own Bud Conrad for sharing this with us...and the link to the story, posted at the enenews.com website, is here.

US Housing Crisis Is Now Worse Than Great Depression

It's official: The housing crisis that began in 2006 and has recently entered a double dip is now worse than the Great Depression.

Prices have fallen some 33 percent since the market began its collapse, greater than the 31 percent fall that began in the late 1920s and culminated in the early 1930s, according to Case-Shiller data.

As I've been saying ad nauseam since February 2007...call me in 2013 and we'll talk about the bottom of the U.S. real estate market.

I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending me this cnbc.com story...and the link is here.

Is the ECB Solvent?

My column was full to the brim on Tuesday, so this James Turk offering had to wait until today.

The solvency of the European Central Bank is being called into question by some brilliant in-depth research from OpenEurope.org.uk. This independent think tank believes “the EU must now embrace radical reform based on economic liberalisation, a looser and more flexible structure, and greater transparency and accountability” in order for the “EU’s over-loaded institutions, held in low regard by Europe’s citizens” to meet “the pressing challenges of weak economic growth, rising global competition, insecurity and a looming demographic crisis”.

This is a must read piece...and it's posted over at the Free Gold Money Report website. The link is here.

Euro Crisis in Athens: Greek Prime Minister Papandreou Offers to Resign

The financial crisis in Greece, it would seem, has only been getting worse in recent weeks, no matter how hard the country's European Union partners try to find a solution. Now, however, Athens may also be on the verge of a political crisis.

According to Greek state television and Reuters, Prime Minister George Papandreou on Wednesday offered to resign in order to simplify the creation of a unity government. His offer came on the heels of talks with opposition leader Antonis Samaras, the goal of which was the creation of a coalition pairing Papandreou's socialists with Samaras' conservatives, according to the state-owned television station NET. "It is a historically critical moment," Papandreou said, in reference to his country's financial situation.

This is another Roy Stephens offering...and this one is posted at the German website spiegel.de...and the link is here.

Turkey walks a diplomatic tightrope on its Syrian border

As the number of Syrians fleeing across the border into Turkey mounts, newly re-elected Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been playing a delicate diplomatic balancing act with his southern neighbour.

Caught off-guard by the extent of the Syrian crackdown on protesters, Erdogan has responded by urging Assad to refrain from violence and introduce reforms. It is a dialogue he has maintained over the past few weeks, according to Turkish media reports.

But as the Syrian crackdown escalates, Ankara has been losing patience with its southern neighbour, according to Ozel.

“Turkey’s criticism of the Assad regime has been intensifying,” he told FRANCE 24. “At first, Turkey tried to reason with the regime, trying to encourage them to open up the system and accommodate the opposition. But once the violence got out of hand, the prime minister took a firm position and said the pictures that were coming out of Syria were abominations."

This is a Roy Stephens offering that's posted over at the france24.com website...and the link is here.

Pakistan’s Chief of Army Fights to Keep His Job

Pakistan's army chief, the most powerful man in the country, is fighting to save his position in the face of seething anger from top generals and junior officers since the American raid that killed Osama bin Laden, according to Pakistani officials and people who have met the chief in recent weeks.

Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who has led the army since 2007, faces such intense discontent over what is seen as his cozy relationship with the United States that a colonels’ coup, while unlikely, was not out of the question, said a well-informed Pakistani who has seen the general in recent weeks, as well as an American military official involved with Pakistan for many years.

This very interesting story was in yesterday's edition of The New York Times...and I thank Roy once again. The link is here.

Wave of Unrest Rocks China

A wave of violent unrest in urban areas of China over the past three weeks is testing the Communist Party's efforts to maintain control over an increasingly complex and fractious society, forcing it to repeatedly deploy its massive security forces to contain public anger over economic and political grievances.

The simultaneous challenge to social order in several cities from the industrial north to the export-oriented south represents a new threat for China's leaders in the politically sensitive run-up to a once-a-decade leadership change next year, even though for now the violence doesn't appear to be coordinated.

This 'subscriber protected' story was in Tuesday's edition of The Wall Street Journal...and I have posted everything in the clear that was available. This is another Roy Stephens offering...and the link to the story is here. But unless you're a subscriber, there's nothing left to see.

Chinese inflation hits three-year high

China reported a 5.5 percent inflation rate on Tuesday, the highest level in three years, further straining the economy and adding to popular frustration that has sparked protests in recent months.

The spate of street demonstrations and bombings, from Inner Mongolia in the north all the way to Guangdong in the south, has highlighted the precarious balance the communist leadership is striving to maintain while keeping the world’s second largest economy growing at a stable pace.

Surging prices for food and other basic necessities have added to the frustrations over inequality, abuse of power and suppression of legitimate grievances that drove recent turbulence.

Hmmm...maybe that's what was in the above WSJ article that was subscriber protected. This story is well worth your time...and, once again, I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link to the france24.com story is here.

One More Big Precious Metals Fall?

My first precious metal story is courtesy of reader 'Rocky R'...and it's a posting by Patrick Heller over at numismaster.com. I work in the retail gold and silver bullion arena in my day job...and I found this commentary to be spot on...and I consider it a must read. The link is here.

Russia central bank signals pause in hikes; plans to buy Australian dollar

Here's an interesting Reuters article filed from Moscow that I found posted over at Kitco yesterday. What the headline doesn't hint at is what the Central Bank of the Russian Federation says about gold.

When it comes to hedging against risks, however, gold is one of the safest bets, Ulukayev said, reflecting a view increasingly shared by other central banks seeking an alternative to currencies and protection from the debt crisis in Europe. "Increasing monetary gold in our reserves is an important element," Ulyukayev said.

"We continue doing that and we are the leaders among central banks when it comes to [gold] growth indicators," he said.

Not only does the Reuters story neglect to mention anything about gold in the headline...it sticks the bank's comments about gold at the end of the article.

This is certainly worth skimming...and the link is here.

James Turk Audio Interview Now Released at King World News

In a KWN blog yesterday, James said that the bottom was in for both gold and silver...and that we were going to have an price explosion in both metals before the summer was out. Here's the audio interview that Eric King sent me late yesterday afternoon. I would suggest it's worth listening to...and the link is here.

Eric Sprott Says 'Manipulation' Drove Pullback In Silver Prices

Here's a silver-related story that was sent to me by West Virginia reader Elliot Simon. It started out as a posting over at silverinvestingnews.com...but was picked up by finance.yahoo.com around lunchtime yesterday. It ended up as a GATA release as well, so I'm just going to post the link to that, as Chris Powell has already done the heavy lifting for me.

This a must read story as well...and the link is here.

Gold to Replace Euro: Dennis Gartman

Here's a Dennis Gartman interview that was posted over at the Hard Assets Investor website on Monday.

We don't often get to hear what Dennis has to say, so that fact alone makes this 3-page interview worth running through.

I would point out that Dennis is right when he says that buying gold is the same as shorting the dollar. It matters not that you short a euro ETF, as your still short the dollar and, by extension, every fiat currency on the planet...which is all of them.

And if gold replaces the euro...it will also replace the dollar at the same instant.

I thank Florida reader Donna Badach for this piece...and the link is here.

Gold at $5,000...Silver at $200: Rob McEwen

"We're going to see it [gold] run, and run very strong," McEwen proclaimed. "It will probably surpass all our expectations as to how high it can go." And, he added, "silver may even outperform gold."

Note to Rob: If you do the math, silver will obviously have to outperform gold in the price scenario you have presented.

I found this very short piece headlined "Despite growing silver holdings, Rob McEwen still loves gold" posted over at the mineweb.com yesterday...and the link is here.

The ESF: Headquarters of gold rigging -- and all U.S. covert operations too?

The ESF is the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund...and this GATA release has lots of information on that. Imbedded are two youtube.com video clips about the ESF that you may find of interest.

Chris Powell's preamble plus 'all of the above' is linked here...and is well worth the read/view/listen.

You're out of your mind to sell gold now, Sinclair tells King World News

I've ripped this story, along with Chris Powell's preamble, from another GATA release. This one came out late last night Eastern time.

Gold trader and mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair gets practically apocalyptic tonight in an interview with Eric King of King World News.

"The potential right now, right here, right at this point for an error in judgment that would set off a loss of confidence is present, clear, and in all probability something that we are going to be facing well into the summer," Sinclair says. "This is as serious as it gets. ... This has gone so far that there is no solution that can be applied and the only practical method is to continue to expand the Fed's monetary aggregates to continue to hold down interest rates. And hopefully kicking the can down the road until somebody else is in charge -- and that's exactly what they are doing."

Sinclair adds that if you let go of your gold now, "You are out of your mind."

Sinclair will speak at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London in August (

As Chris mentioned in the story above, GATA is having its conference in London during the first week of August, which is less than seven short weeks away.

The speaker line-up is of note...Eric Sprott, John Embry, Jim Rickards, Hugo Salinas Price, James Turk...and the list goes on.

We'd love to see you there...and here is the link to the conference details.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

Gold's trading volume on Wednesday was around 144,000 contracts net of all roll-overs...and it's obvious from the preliminary open interest number [up 14,657 contracts] that JPMorgan et al had to throw a lot of short contracts at yesterday's gold rally to stop it in its tracks. The final open interest number for gold on Tuesday showed a small decline of 877 contracts.

Silver's net volume yesterday was around 55,000 contracts...not a lot higher than Tuesday's number...and the preliminary open interest number showed an increase of 3,345 contracts. Tuesday's final open interest number in silver showed a smallish increase of 148 contracts.

I'll certainly be interested in the final open interest numbers for both metals when they're posted on the CME's website later this morning.

As I mentioned earlier in this column, I was impressed by the fact that gold and the dollar were rising in price together...especially in the face of the dollar's big gain. It appears that more and more traders are seeing gold as a currency of last resort, instead of blindly putting their money in the world's reserve currency. Not only do I expect this trend to continue, but I also expect it to gather strength as time marches on.

Here's the gold chart for the last year. The 50-day moving average still is intact...and the 200-day moving average is within pennies of $1,400. It still remains to be seen whether the bullion banks will go after one or both of these moving averages...and only time will tell. Yesterday's price action appears that this will be more of a challenge than first thought. We'll see.

But, if it comes to pass, I would suggest that this would be a buying opportunity that may not come again...ever. That applies to silver, as well as gold. But if you're trying to pick the exact day that the bottom for this move in both metals is in, I wish you luck, as close will be good enough...sort of like horseshoes, hand grenades and atomic bombs.

Both metals were down a little during the Far East trading day...but have popped a bit starting around 2:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...and continuing into the London open an hour later. Volume in both metals [as of 4:13 a.m. Eastern time] is very light...but, judging by the volume in silver at the moment, the high frequency traders are out and about. The dollar isn't doing much of anything.

I look forward to the New York trading session with great interest.

See you on Friday.

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