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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Gold and Silver Have Bottomed - Summer Explosion Ahead: James Turk

"After a nothing sort of day yesterday, it will be interesting to see if today's trading action brings us any more excitement."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

It was a pretty quiet day in the gold market yesterday. The gold price rose and fell about eight dollars between the Far East open on Tuesday morning...right up until the low of the day, which occurred around 9:15 a.m. in new York.

From that low, gold gained about ten bucks or so by the close of Comex trading at 1:30 p.m. Eastern...and then basically traded sideways for the rest of the New York electronic session. Volume was about the same as Monday's.

Silver's price path was virtually identical to gold's...rising and falling from the Far East open until the low of the day was set at 9:15 a.m. Eastern. The subsequent rally lasted until the end of Comex trading...and then traded sideways until the close of the New York Access market at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time. Volume was considerably lighter on Tuesday than it was on Monday.

The dollar slid about twenty-five basis points between the Far East open on Tuesday morning...and the close of Comex trading at 1:30 p.m. yesterday afternoon. A tiny rally developed after that...and the dollar closed a hair lower than it opened. Nothing to see here, folks...please move along.

Despite the fact that gold price was only up a couple of bucks at the open of the equity markets at 9:30 a.m. on Tuesday morning, the shares gapped up a bit...with the stocks hitting their highs of the day at 10:30 a.m. The HUI finished just off its high...up 1.57%.

For the most part, the silver stocks did much better...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index finished the day up 2.80%

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 179 gold contracts were posted for delivery on Thursday. The big issuer [176 contracts] was the Bank of Nova Scotia...and the big stopper [165 contracts] was, you guessed it, JPMorgan in its proprietary [house] trading account. There were no deliveries posted for silver.

GLD showed no changes yesterday, but over at SLV another 1,365,048 troy ounces of silver were withdrawn.

The U.S. Mint had no sales report.

There was a fair amount of activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday...and for the first time in quite a number of years, Comex silver stocks slid below the 100 million ounce mark.

There were 191,856 ounces of silver deposited on Monday...and a huge 2,191,196 ounces reported withdrawn...for a net decline of 1,999,340 ounces. The link to the action is here...and it's worth a quick look.

Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com was kind enough to provide this silver chart of Comex Warehouse Stocks [both Registered and Eligible] going back twenty years. You can see how things have progressed over time..not only in total inventories, but in the Registered and Eligible categories as well.

¤ Critical Reads

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Business Stockpiles Rose for 16th Month in April

Today's first story is courtesy of reader Phil Barlett and was posted in yesterday's edition of The New York Times.

Businesses added to their stockpiles for a 16th consecutive month in April. But their sales grew at the slowest pace in 10 months, supporting other data that show the economy weakened this spring.

Supply levels grew 0.8 percent in April and sales rose for a 10th straight month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. But the 0.1 percent sales increase was the smallest since sales fell 0.5 percent in June of last year.

It's a short read...and the link is here.

CFTC moves to delay some swaps rules past July 16th

The U.S. futures regulator on Tuesday put the brakes on reforms to the massive swaps market scheduled to automatically kick in July 16 and threaten the validity of billions of dollars in derivatives trades.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's proposed delay was a relief to traders, who were facing a daunting gap between the old regulatory regime and the new one called for in last year's Dodd-Frank financial reform law.

The CFTC, which must write regulations to cover dozens of complex reforms for the $600 trillion global swaps markets, has missed a series of deadlines for finalizing them.

Gensler said he hopes to finalize regulations on clearing, swap execution facilities in September. The agency also has targeted taking up entity and product definition rules shortly after Labor Day.

He did not offer a time for position limits.

I guess that would include position limits in silver as well. Too bad. Washington state reader S.A. sent me this Reuters piece filed from Washington yesterday...and the link is here.

Minnesota prepares for shutdown

Time is running out for Minnesota's parks, highway rest stops and public universities, not to mention 36,000 state employees.

If Gov. Mark Dayton and lawmakers don't agree on a budget by June 30, the state government is expected to shut down. The state moved one step closer to this outcome on Friday by sending layoff notices to much of the state workforce.

Reader Scott Pluschau sent this cnn.com story yesterday...and the link is here.

UNASUR, looking at the EU, freezes project for common currency and central bank

UNASUR, looking at the EU, freezes project for common currency and central bank

The Union of South American Nations, UNASUR has frozen the project for a common currency and Central Bank following on conclusions from the European Union experience [and crisis], said the Argentine representative before the organization.

“When we launched UNASUR we were thinking of an only Central bank and a common currency, but the European experience made us decide to shelve the proposal”, said Rafael Follonier.

International Speculator editor, Louis James passed this story around last night with the comment that is was "quite telling about the euro and European Union, if banana republics look on the E.U. as a cautionary tale." Amen to that, bro'...and the link is here.

Berlusconi admits defeat as Italians reject nuclear power

Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi acknowledged defeat Monday in referendums on nuclear power, water privatisation and trial immunity for ministers, saying the will of Italians was "clear" and that the government would have to "respond fully".

Berlusconi has been a major supporter of atomic power, which the centre right says is indispensable for the future of a country that imports nearly all its energy.

The referendums could not have come at a worse time for the 74-year-old premier, who faces a sex scandal and three fraud trials and was weakened by crushing losses in last month’s local elections, including in his northern power base, Milan.

The story was posted over at the france24.com website yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for sharing it with us. It's worth the read...and the link is here.

Time working against euro zone solution: George Soros

The chances of positively resolving Europe's serious debt problems are decreasing from day to day as authorities focus on "buying more time," not solving problems, billionaire investor George Soros said on Tuesday.

"There is a resolution, probably under pressure of the crisis, a resolution will be found but the sooner it is done the better."

The story, posted over at yahoo.com, is courtesy of reader Scott Pluschau. It's only a handful of paragraphs...and I've already hit the high points. The link is here.

Missing Iraq money may have been stolen, auditors say

U.S. Defense officials still cannot say what happened to $6.6 billion, sent by the planeload in cash and intended for Iraq's reconstruction after the start of the war.

Pentagon officials determined that one giant C-130 Hercules cargo plane could carry $2.4 billion in shrink-wrapped bricks of $100 bills. They sent an initial full planeload of cash, followed by 20 other flights to Iraq by May 2004 in a $12-billion haul that U.S. officials believe to be the biggest international cash airlift of all time.

This month, the Pentagon and the Iraqi government are finally closing the books on the program that handled all those Benjamins. But despite years of audits and investigations, U.S. Defense officials still cannot say what happened to $6.6 billion in cash — enough to run the Los Angeles Unified School District or the Chicago Public Schools for a year, among many other things.

You can't make this stuff up...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending me this story out of yesterday's edition of the L.A. Times. The link is here.

Syrian troops 'widening' crackdown

Syrian security forces are reportedly widening an operation in the north of the country aimed at cracking down on anti-government protests amid reports of defections from the army's ranks.

Troops pushed towards the town of Maarat al-Numaan after detaining hundreds of people in a sweep through villages near Jisr al-Shughur, the Reuters news agency reported on Tuesday, citing residents who fled the area.

Refugees have poured across the Syrian border into neighbouring Turkey to escape the government's operation in Jisr al-Shughur, the site of a military takeover on Sunday.

This is a story posted over at aljazeera.com...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along...and the link is here.

Why foreign intervention is not welcome in Syria

To intervene or not to intervene? Having watched the Assad regime kill more than 1,400 Syrians, arrest tens of thousands, use helicopter gunships and tanks on its own population, reportedly abuse and kill children, many are asking why, if action was deemed necessary for Libya, it is not for Syria. The Syrian regime has behaved little better than its Gaddafi counterpart and yet the west does not know what to do to, how to do it and with whom, and above all has not been invited to intervene. There is a famous Syrian proverb: "The ziwan (rye grass) of your own country is better than the wheat of the stranger." In other words, Syrians may prefer the worst of the regime to the best foreigners would offer.

Syria used to be part of the Ottoman Empire...and was a French colony after the Ottoman Empire was carved up at the end of WW1 This is very short history of that...and well worth your time. I thank Roy Stephens for this story out of yesterday's The Guardian...and the link is here.

Silver Will Trade Like an Internet Stock to the Upside: Rick Rule

Eric King sent me this rather longish Rick Rule blog yesterday...and I feel that it's well worth your time. The link is here.

Silver in Focus

As you know, reader Scott Pluschau has been a regular contributor to this column almost since day one. Scott is an expert in technical analysis...a discipline that's virtually a closed book for me...especially in a rigged market such as gold and silver.

But, for those of you who live and breath T.A...here's his take on SLV and silver in general. His commentary is posted over at etfdigest.com...and the link is here.

Paul plans to question Treasury on gold reserve at June 23 hearing

Here's a GATA release of a cnbc.com story that's headlined "Is Gold in Fort Knox Real? Ron Paul Wants to Know". This story is a must read...and the link is here.

Gold and silver have bottomed: summer explosion ahead, Turk tells King World News

GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News last night that the rallies in gold and silver today signaled the bottom in the precious metals and that they'll be pressing upward within a couple of weeks. The link to the KWN blog is here.

Stealth junior mining stock rally in the works: Thom Calandra

Here's another GATA release where Chris Powell has already wordsmithed the preamble for us...and the link is here.

Gold to Reach $5,000 Due to Supply Shortage: Report

An exhaustive report by Standard Chartered predicts that gold will more than triple to $5,000 an ounce because of a lack of supply, not just because of a surge in demand that most bullion bugs cite in their bullish calls.

The rather 'exhaustive report' that is mentioned in this cnbc.com story runs 68 pages...so consider this article an executive summary in lieu of the whole thing. I thank reader Scott Pluschau for sharing it with us...and the link is here.

Gold Standard Institute: Bankers aren't the problem; funny money is

The June edition of the Gold Standard Institute's newsletter leads with an editorial warning that while bankers will be blamed for the worldwide financial collapse, this will be a distraction. Rather, the editorial says, the real culprit is infinite irredeemable money.

I stole the story...and the preamble...from a GATA release last night...and the link to the article is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

Gold's volume yesterday was around 107,000 contracts net of all roll-overs..which was a few thousand contracts less than Monday's trading volume. The preliminary open interest number showed an increase of 5,305 contracts...which will be much reduced when the final numbers are reported.

The final open interest number for Tuesday's trading day showed a decrease of nine [9] contracts! Gold was down about a percent on Monday, so I wouldn't read much into these numbers...as the bullion banks are very good at covering their tracks.

Silver's net trading volume yesterday was only around 51,000 contracts...down a chunky 21,000 contracts from Monday's trading volume. Of course, the silver price didn't do too much yesterday, so volume would have been light. Silver got killed on Monday...and that certainly accounted for the elevated trading volume. The preliminary silver o.i. number showed an increase of 3,577 contracts.

With silver down about $1.30 and change on Monday, the final open interest number showed an increase of 68 contracts. I was expecting a large decline...but that number could be hidden behind a spread trade...and the real facts, just like in gold, won't be know until Friday.

Whatever the final open interest numbers are for the Tuesday trading day that are posted on the CME's website later this morning...they will be in Friday's Commitment of Traders Report.

Despite all these positive stories about gold and silver in this column...and their respective shares...I'll believe it when I see it. And please don't forget that I was born in Missouri in another life. But, having said that, I'd be delighted to be proven wrong. It will only occur when the bullion banks allow it to happen...and I see no signs of it at the moment, despite how positive the COT report is in silver. But it will happen eventually...it's just a matter of timing. Right this moment would be a good time.

As of 5:00 a.m. Eastern, both gold and silver are heading lower. Volume is almost nothing in gold...but quite a bit higher in silver, as it's obvious that the high frequency traders are lurking about. The dollar is in rally mode...and is up about 43 basis point at the moment.

After a nothing sort of day yesterday, it will be interesting to see if today's trading action brings us any more excitement.

See you on Thursday.

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