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Message: Ed Steer this morning

China is Now Top Gold Bug

"But the $64,000 question remains...will the bullion banks be on the short side of the trade on the next rally...or will they stand aside with their hand in their pockets?"

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

It was a bit of a rollercoaster ride for both precious metals yesterday. The gold price broke through $1,500 to the upside moments after I had hit the 'send' button on my Friday column.

Then it was up and down...and down and up...until the absolute low came at the London p.m. gold fix at precisely 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Then, in the next ninety minutes, the gold price surged $25 before the buyer disappeared at 11:30 a.m. Eastern. The gold price then traded sideways into the close of electronic trading. Volume, which had been light originally, surged quite a bit.

Silver's price path was very similar to gold's...except that silver's high price came shortly after 9:00 a.m. in London trading. It's low of the day was, like gold's low, at the London p.m. gold fix at 3:00 p.m. local time...which was 10:00 a.m. in New York.

Silver had a rally of sorts after that as well, but did not break out to the upside like gold did...and basically finished flat on the day. Volume was pretty decent.

The dollar didn't do a whole heck of a lot in Far East and early London trading. The low came around 9:40 a.m. in London...and from there, a six hour long rally developed that took the dollar up a bit more than 75 basis point by 10:40 a.m. Eastern.

A seventy-five basis point rally in the world's reserve currency is nothing to sneeze at...and both gold and silver traded independently of that fact all day long. So the next time you hear that gold rose or fell because of dollar...think of days like yesterday.

For reasons I can't quite fathom, the gold stocks got sold off more than a percent after the equity market opened yesterday morning. Then the gold price began to rise the moment that the London p.m. gold fix was in at 10:00 a.m. Eastern But, if you check the gold chart, you'll note that the gold price didn't go vertical until 10:45 a.m...and that's when the gold stocks followed suit, with the HUI hitting its high the same moment that the gold price did...12:30 p.m. Eastern.

Despite the fact that the gold price continued to make slightly new highs for the day, the stocks got sold off a percent going into the close...but the HUI managed to finish in the black...up 0.31%, which I considered to be a disappointment considering the overall price action.

Here's the HUI for the week that was. It closed higher every day this week..up about 3% on the week.

Even though the silver price didn't do much yesterday...the shares certainly did...as most were up many orders of magnitude more than their golden cousins. As always, here's Nick Laird's "Silver Sentiment Index".

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 35 gold contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday.

For a change, the GLD ETF added some gold yesterday. This time it was 341,118 troy ounces. There were no reported changes in SLV.

The U.S. Mint had a smallish sales report yesterday. They sold 1,500 ounces of gold eagles...3,500 one-ounce gold buffaloes...and a smallish 78,500 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 95,000 ounces of gold eagles...13,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 2,256,000 silver eagles.

The Comex-approved depositories had a quiet day on Thursday. They reported receiving 51,827 ounces of silver...and shipped 72,064 out the door, for a net decline of 20,237 ounces.

The Commitment of Traders Report was everything that I was hoping it would be. In silver, the Commercial net short position, where the bullion banks hide out, showed a decline of 7,319 contracts....and now sits at 170.0 million ounces.

The '4 or less' traders are short 176.1 million ounces of silver. The '8 or less' bullion banks are short 211.0 million ounces of the stuff. Here's the link to a full-colour graphic of all this year's COT reports, so you can see just how much things have improved since the 'drive-by shooting' at the beginning of the month. You'd have to go back to an April 2009 COT report to see numbers as good as were reported yesterday.

In gold, the Commercial net short position declined by a chunky 14,632 contracts...and leaves the net short position [as of the close of trading on Tuesday] sitting at 20.7 million ounces.

The '4 or less' bullion banks are short 15.2 million ounces of gold...and the '8 or less' traders [which includes the '4 or less' traders] are short 22.2 million ounces.

Here's the link to the full-colour COT graphs for gold. You will notice immediately the improvement in the COT structure, though great, does not match the improvement that we've seen in silver. So the fly in the ointment still remains...can they pound the gold price lower to get more liquidation in silver? Friday's activity was not a very good start, so we'll just have to wait it out.

Ted and I pretty much agree that if this isn't the bottom...it's awfully close to it...and the share price action confirms that.

Here's Ted Butler's "Days to Cover Short Positions" graph with the data updated with yesterday's COT report. You can see from the graph that the bullion banks short position in silver has almost been reduced down to where it is for gold...and gold's short position has been declining as well.

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To give you an idea of how much this graph has changed over time. Here's a "Days to Cover Short Positions" graph from August of last year.

Since yesterday was the 20th of the month, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reported its gold purchased for the prior month. In April, they bought 400,000 ounces...bringing their total reported reserves up to 26.5 million ounces. Here's Nick Laird's graph on this one.

Here's a graph that was sent to me by Washington state reader S.A. He cut-and-paste this from a WSJ story headlined "China Now Top Gold Bug" that was subscriber protected. I'm posting the Bloomberg story on this, so when you read it further down, you can refer to this chart.

I have a lot of stories for your reading pleasure this weekend...and I hope you can find the time to read them all.

¤ Critical Reads

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Chicago-area home sales, prices plummet

Sales of existing homes in the Chicago metropolitan area sank 19.2 percent in April from the same month last year, and the median price fell 14.5 percent, the Illinois Association of Realtors said Thursday.

As I said in February 2007...call me in 2013 and we'll talk about a bottom in the U.S. real estate market at that time. I lifted this short Chicago Sun-Times article from yesterday's King Report...and the link is here.

Christine Lagarde in front to replace Dominique Strauss-Kahn as head of IMF

Europe is poised to install France's finance minister at the helm of the International Monetary Fund, infuriating the world's emerging nations.

European politicians, keen that the new chief is sympathetic to the eurozone' debt crisis, have been scrambling to agree on a candidate before emerging nations settle on a rival contender.

This story was posted in The Telegraph late last night...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along...and the link is here.


Greece suffers fresh blow as credit rating cut by Fitch

Fitch said that the downgrade reflected the massive challenges the country faces in implementing cuts, tax rises and other reforms needed to secure its solvency.

Investors took flight as the rating of the Greek government's debt moved three notches further into 'junk' status, at 'B+'. The spread between 10-year Greek and German government bond yields, a gauge of the risk of holding Greek debt, touched a record 13.73 percentage points.

This is another story from The Telegraph late last night...also courtesy of Roy Stephens...and the link is here.


Norway Stops Aid Payments To Greece

Reader Tony in South Carolina sent me the following zerohedge.com piece yesterday that's worth a read.

"...with Norway which is a member of the European Economic Area, and actually one of the few solvent and non-basket case European countries saying let the chips fall where they may, it is just the first. Look for every other country currently on the sidelines vis-a-vis Greece [and just as insolvent] to follow suit as the European experiment falls apart."

This is a short read...and the link is here.


Spanish protesters head for standoff with police in Madrid square

Thousands of protesters who are camped out in Madrid's central Puerta del Sol square and in dozens more Spanish cities have pledged to defy an order to pack up their tent cities and leave.

A tense standoff between police and protesters looked inevitable as interior minister Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba warned that authorities would uphold the law.

"Police know exactly what they have to do," he said, without specifying. "Their actions will depend on what happens."

This is another Roy Stephens offering from The Guardian...and the link is here.


Secret Desert Force Set Up by Blackwater’s Founder

Here's your first really big read of the day...and it's something that reader G.G. sent to me earlier this week, that I've been saving for today's column.

Normally I wouldn't give a piece like this the time of day, but since it showed up in the May 14th edition of The New York Times, I think it's worth the read.

Late one night last November, a plane carrying dozens of Colombian men touched down in this glittering seaside capital. Whisked through customs by an Emirati intelligence officer, the group boarded an unmarked bus and drove roughly 20 miles to a windswept military complex in the desert sand.

Erik Prince, the founder of Blackwater Worldwide, who resettled in the U.A.E. last year after his security business faced mounting legal problems in the United States, was hired by the crown prince of Abu Dhabi to put together an 800-member battalion of foreign troops for the U.A.E., according to former employees on the project, American officials and corporate documents obtained by The New York Times.

The force is intended to conduct special operations missions inside and outside the country, defend oil pipelines and skyscrapers from terrorist attacks and put down internal revolts, the documents show. Such troops could be deployed if the Emirates faced unrest in their crowded labor camps or were challenged by pro-democracy protests like those sweeping the Arab world this year.

As I said, it's a longish piece...and the link is here.


Gold Imports by China May Increase After Investment Demand Overtakes India

Here's the Bloomberg story about China's gold consumption. The WSJ article on this bore the headline "China is Now Top Gold Bug"...and the chart associated with that article is posted above.

Gold imports by China may increase after investment demand more than doubled in the first quarter, with the country overtaking India to become the largest market for gold coins and bars, the World Gold Council said.

China produced 340 metric tons of gold last year and consumption was about 700 tons, leaving a gap of 350 tons to 360 tons, Albert Cheng, Far East managing director at the council, said yesterday. “With increasing demand in China we will have to rely on imports to fill the gap between demand and supply.” China is the world’s largest gold producer and second-largest in overall consumption.

Chris Powell sent me this must read story...and the link is here.


Tocqueville's Hathaway, Williams of Shadowstats, and Richard Russell opine at KWN

Here's a 3-in-1 GATA release that saves me the trouble of wordsmithing each one individually. I've read all three [the Russell blog was posted in my Thursday column, so you can skip it if you've already read it]...but the other two blogs are worth your time...and the link to all three blogs is here.

John Hathaway Interview at King World News

Since I posted that GATA release above, Eric sent me the full audio interview with John Hathaway...and the link is here.

Seth Lipsky: Should America sell its gold?

Here's a story from yesterday's edition of The Wall Street Journal that was sent to me by Washington state reader S.A. Since it was subscriber protected, I had to get Chris Powell to post it in the clear, which he was kind enough to do.

Seth Lipsky is editor of the New York Sun. An anthology of its editorials on the gold standard, "It Shines for All," will be out this month from New York Sun Books.

This is an absolute must read from one end to the other...and the link is here.


An interview with Hugo Salinas Price on returning to a silver Mexican peso

This interview was imbedded in a GATA release yesterday...and, as I am wont to do, I'm just going to steal Mr. Powell's preamble and post the link.

Jeff Berwick of The Dollar Vigilante has written a wonderful interview with Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, about his proposal for Mexico to re-monetize silver in a gentle and subtle way conducive to savings by the broad public.

The interview is posted over at silverseek.com...and the link is here.


Silver prices settle, but sales continue to soar

Here's a story about silver that was posted over at msnbc.com yesterday...and is courtesy of reader Craig Eubanks.

Dave Crume, vice president of A-OK Pawn and Retail in Witchita, Kan., and president of the National Pawnbrokers Association, says he's buying a lot more silver these days, a phenomenon which his fellow pawnbrokers report experiencing, as well. "I'm probably seeing a 300 percent increase, at least," he says.

This is not an overly long story...and its worth your time. The link is here.


Stacy Herbert: Show me the silver bubble

Stacy Herbert, editor of the Max Keiser Report, rebuts in careful detail the claim that silver is in a bubble. In fact, Herbert writes, today's interest in silver is a tiny fraction of the interest back in the days of the Hunt Brothers' infamous foray into silver.

I stole this story...and the introduction...from another GATA release yesterday...and the link is here.


Zimbabwe may sell diamonds to launch gold-backed currency

The Zimbabwean dollar is no longer in active use after it was officially suspended by the government due to hyperinflation. The United States dollar, South African rand, Botswanan pula, Pound sterling, and Euro are now used instead. The US dollar has been adopted as the official currency for all government transactions with the new power-sharing regime, says Wikipedia.

This is a very interesting read that's posted over at commodityonline.com...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sharing it with us...and the link is here.


J.P. Morgan's hunt for Afghan gold

Here's your second big read of the day. This story was sent to my by reader Bill Moomau a couple of days back...and because of its length, it ended up as weekend reading material.

One has to wonder what the hell J.P. Morgan and the Pentagon are doing looking for gold in Afghanistan...and I wonder what China makes of all of this?

To Hannam, chairman of J.P. Morgan Capital Markets, Afghanistan represents a gigantic, untapped opportunity -- one of the last great natural-resource frontiers. Landlocked and pinioned by imperial invaders, Afghanistan has been cursed by its geography for thousands of years. Now, for the first time, Hannam believes, that geography could be an asset. The two most resource-starved nations on the planet, China and India, sit next door to Afghanistan, where, according to Pentagon estimates, minerals worth nearly $1 trillion lie buried. True, there is a war under way. And it's unclear how the death of Osama bin Laden will impact the country's political and economic environment. But Hannam is not your usual investment banker: A former soldier, he has done business in plenty of strife-torn countries. So have all the members of his team, two of them former special forces soldiers who have fought here.

As I said, this is a long read which...as a non-American, I found profoundly disturbing. The link is here.


Meeting of the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fraud

Back in 2003, Bob Landis, a partner with Reg Howe over goldensextant.com, wrote a fanciful and very tongue-in-cheek story about the debauchery that probably/maybe occurs at the IMF meetings. Bob calls them the "International Monetary Fraud"...which is what the IMF truly is. It [and the World Bank] are American-controlled organizations that have basically raped the 'third world' for the benefit of the American Empire.

In light of the fact that the IMF's previous grand poobah, one Mr. Dominique Strauss-Khan, is now rotting in a New York jail on rape charges, I thought this story was more than apropos...so I asked Mr. Landis to dig this old [horse] chestnut out of his archives...and here it is.

I would suggest that a couple of glasses of wine before you start to read would be appropriate. The link is here. Enjoy!


¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

Reader David Mancini provides us with our 'blast from the past' this week. I haven't heard this music in about fifty-five years...and most of us who are growing a little long in the tooth, will have no trouble remembering it. So turn up your speakers and click here.

Gold volume yesterday was very heavy...but once all the roll-overs were removed, it netted out to a bit over 160,000 contracts...and the preliminary open interest number was a shocker, as it showed an increase of 19,055 contracts.

From that number I get the distinct impression that yesterday's big jump in the gold price during the Comex session was definitely not short covering...but new buyers coming into the market, with the bullion banks taking the short side of the trade. In other words, it's the same old, same old routine. I reserve the right to be wrong about this, but that's my take on it at the moment. Of course I expect that the final o.i. numbers will show a big reduction...but not big enough to eliminate it all.

For Thursday's trading day, the final open interest number showed a decline of 2,038 contracts...which is quite impressive considering that the preliminary o.i. number showed an increase of 4,926 contracts.

Silver's net trading volume yesterday was around 63,000 contracts...and the preliminary open interest number showed an increase of 3,507 contracts.

The final open interest number for silver on Thursday showed a small increase of 641 contracts...with the preliminary number showing an increase of 3,726 contracts.

The backwardation in silver, if it means anything, was little changed on Friday from what it showed on Thursday.

I haven't got a clue as to what to read into Friday's price action. With the Commitment of Traders report showing a fully cleaned out silver market...and a very bullish reading for gold as well, it's hard to know what prices are going to do from here.

As Ted Butler keeps saying, he can't see JPMorgan et al putting their collective heads back in the lion's mouth after going to all this effort to get down to their lowest short positions in years...but it looks like they did it in gold yesterday.

Of course, the possibility always exists that 'da boyz' could engineer a further price decline in gold from here...as gold's 50-day moving average remains un-violated...and that is the great unknown.

I'd like to think that we could also be set to blast to the upside...and that can't happen soon enough to suit me. But the $64,000 question remains...will the bullion banks be on the short side of the trade on the next rally...or will they stand aside with their hand in their pockets and let her rip?

I would suggest that we will find out the answers to these questions in reasonably short order.

There's still time left to either readjust your portfolio...or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold...and I respectfully suggest that you take a trial subscription to either Casey Research's International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best [and current] recommendations...as well as the archives. A subscription to the International Speculator also includes a free subscription to BIG GOLD as well. And don't forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.

After spending almost all of yesterday in bed, I'm feeling a bit better now...but I'll be ever so glad to go back to bed after I hit the 'send' button around 5:30 a.m. Eastern time this morning.

See you on Tuesday.

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