Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Mar 29, 2011 09:27AM
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"What would the price of silver be if JPMorgan’s 125 million ounce COMEX short position, or the big 4’s 220 million ounce short position, didn’t exist?"
The gold price got sold off the moment that trading began in the Far East on Monday morning...but that was probably due to the spike up in the U.S. dollar that occurred at the same instant.
The gold price remained around the $1,425 spot price until London opened at 8:00 a.m. GMT...3:00 a.m. in New York...and then gold sold off in fits and starts until the U.S. bullion banks showed up as buyers minutes before the Comex open in New York at 8:20 a.m. Eastern time.
From there, gold rallied until a few minutes after twelve noon...and then basically traded sideways for the rest of the floor [and electronic] trading session.
The price action in silver pretty much followed the same price path as gold...with the price increases and decreases occurring at the same times...and the graphs for both look virtually identical.
Here's the dollar chart. You can see the slight spike up at the open on Sunday night...and then the buck basically traded sideways until 8:15 a.m. Eastern. That's the precise time when both gold and silver hit their respective lows just five minutes before Comex trading began. The dollar then fell about 35 basis points from there [it looks more impressive then that...but it's just the scale on the chart]...and had a 'double bottom' at 10:30 and 11:30 a.m. Eastern...before crawling a bit higher into the close of trading at 5:15 p.m. in New York.
From that 8:15 a.m. dollar high on Monday morning, one can say that the precious metals prices 'followed' the dollar...but the big down-move in both metals starting in the Far East...and ending at the aforementioned 8:15 a.m. time...is impossible to rationalize using the dollar's price action as a guide.
It's easy to pick out the top in the gold and silver price on the HUI chart...and at that point, the gold stocks were basically unchanged on the day. But once the gold price began to trade sideways to down...the gold share got sold off in tandem...and the HUI finished down 1.62%...but not on its absolute low of the day.
The silver price got hit harder than gold...and did not recover as much...and the silver shares did poorly across the board. But I did have one tiny junior silver company that finished the day with a green arrow.
Monday's CME Delivery Report showed that 4 gold, along with a very chunky 290 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Wednesday. The surprise issuer at 177 contracts was Merrill out of their client account...with JPMorgan a distant second. The big stopper with 172 contracts was Barclays. They've been very prominent this month. This delivery report is worth looking at...and the link is here.
The GLD ETF continues its losing ways, as they reported a 68,262 ounces withdrawal yesterday...and there was no report from SLV.
Over at Europe's biggest gold and silver ETFs, the Zürcher Kantonalbank reported adding 7,867 ounces of gold to their gold ETF...but reported a 786,022 troy ounce withdrawal from their silver ETF for the week that was. And, as usual, I thank reader Carl Loeb for providing these numbers.
It was a busy sales day at the U.S. Mint yesterday...and these sales are probably all from last week. They reported selling 9,500 ounces of gold eagles, 1,500 24-K one-ounce gold buffaloes...along with 650,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 71,000 ounces of gold eagles...36,500 one-ounce gold buffaloes...and 2,767,000 silver eagles.
Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Friday, they reported receiving 3,028 ounces of silver...and shipped 412,466 troy ounces of the stuff out the door, for a net reduction of 409,438 ounces. The link to that action is here.
In his note to clients over the weekend, silver analyst Ted Butler concluded his commentary with these remarks..."Once again, there is only one real question to ask whentrying to decide if the silver market has been manipulated and/or still has a long way to run on the upside. That question is: what would the price of silver be ifJPMorgan’s 125 million ounce COMEX short position, or the big 4’s 220 million ounce short position, didn’t exist? Or more correctly, what price would it take to convince a wide diversity of many market participants to sell, what only a few entities hold shorttoday? As Chairman Gensler said in his recent speech in Brussels – “at the core of our (the CFTC’s) obligations is ensuring that markets don’t become too concentrated.” COMEX silver is way too concentrated on the short side and until it isn’t...and until the factors critical to silver are resolved...it would appear premature to pronounce the silver bull over. Hold on to your horses, because the ride will get increasingly rough, but it is not about to be concluded any time soon.
Here's the 5-year Baltic Dry Index graph courtesy of Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com. The boys over at the Federal Reserve can't rig this index...like they're currently rigging the U.S. equity markets. But if the could...they would.
I have a lot of stories for you today...with the emphasis on the word, lot. As usual, I've cut them down as much as I could...and, as usual, I'll leave the final edit up to you.
Today's first offering is from reader Scott Pluschau...and it's a cnnmoney.com piece that's posted over at finance.yahoo.com. High residential vacancies are killing many housing markets, as foreclosed homes sit on the market and depress sale prices and property values. Maine had the highest proportion of empty housing stock, at 22.8%. Other states with gluts of empty houses included Vermont (20.5%), Florida (17.5%), Arizona (16.3%) and Alaska (15.9%). It's a short piece...and the link is here.
This next real estate-related story is from yesterday's edition of The Guardian...and was sent to me by Swiss reader G.B.
Sightseers come to Spain for the Alhambra, the Gaudis, the beaches. But Spaniards talk about a new set of landmarks, a kind of tourist anti-attraction. You can find them clustered on the outskirts of big cities and around holiday resorts in Madrid and Valencia. They are half-completed housing estates, often vast areas of empty flats and foundations and property-developers' hubris. Now they are nearly deserted. The Spanish call them ciudades fantasma: ghost towns.
It's a bit of a read...and the link is here. But if you don't want to read it, you should at least look at the picture.
I found this second Spain-related story from Swiss reader G.B. profoundly disturbing...but I'm sure Spain is not the only country that has seen this sort of problem since the economic crash. I've read stories about household pets in the U.S.A. being left behind for the same reason...and it's all so sad.
Charity says reports of starving animals have doubled since the construction boom ended in 2008...and the link to this story, also out of yesterday's edition of The Guardian, is here.
Here's another offering from Scott Pluschau...and this one was posted over at Bloomberg on Friday.
“I would recommend against buying long-term fixed-dollar investments,” Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said today in New Delhi. “If you ask me if the U.S. dollar is going to hold its purchasing power fully at the level of 2011, 5 years, 10 years or 20 years from now, I would tell you it will not.”
He never mentioned gold or silver...but that's something that Warren wouldn't do. I'm sure his father would be spinning in his grave if he knew how his son had turned out. The link is here.
Reader U.D. sent this rather longish essay around on the weekend...which he found posted over at lewrockwell.com.
First they inflate. Then there is a boom. Then there is price inflation. Then they stop inflating. Then there is a recession. To keep it from becoming a depression, they inflate. Year after year, decade after decade, generation after generation, this is what central bankers do.
All over the world, central banks are inflating madly. They have not offered any theory for their actions. There is no such theory. Nothing in Keynesian theory ever hinted at the need for central bank policies that are now in full force. This is ad hockery on a scale unprecedented in peacetime, other than in defeated nations immediately after a total military defeat.
Yep...it's inflate, or die! The link is here.
While we're on the subject of the Fed in particular...and central banks of all stripes in general...I finally have a link to the entire 40-minute Glenn Beck Show that featured author G. Edward Griffin last Thursday. They also talk about gold and silver quite a bit as well.
Needless to say, they only scratched the surface of what's contained in Ed's book...so watching this video is wonderful, but does not excuse you from reading it. Just Google the name of the book...and you'll soon find out how to get your hands on a copy of the latest edition.
What's really amazing about this whole thing, is that Griffin wrote the book in 1994...and seventeen years later, it's still a big seller. How many authors do you know that are interviewed on national television about a book they wrote almost a generation ago?
I thank reader Kimberly Somers for sharing it with us...and the link to this must watch video is here.
Here's another story by reader Scott Pluschau. This one is from the on-line edition of the Sunday Daily Mail.
Extremists brought violent chaos to central London yesterday afterhijacking the much-heralded trade union protest against public spending cuts. A massive clear-up operation was underway after troublecontinued to flare late into the night as hundreds of people clashed with officers in Trafalgar Square. Police confirmed 201 people were in custody and there had been84 reported injuries during the protests. At least 31 police were hurt with 11 of them requiring hospital treatment.
It's a very long piece...but if you don't read the article in its entirety...the pictures are worth the trip. The link is here. There's a similar [but much shorter] story on this subject from yesterday's edition of The Telegraph that's courtesy of Roy Stephens...and that link is here.
Here's a bbc.co.uk story filed from Havana on Friday that was sent to me by reader Sean McLaren. Something is happening on the streets of Havana that hasn't been seen for years. Small businesses are starting to appear everywhere. It is part of the first major shake-up of Cuba's struggling Soviet-style economic model since the 1960s, and private enterprise is no longer a dirty word. It's a longish read...and the link is here.
Here's a story that started off life in the L.A. Times...and then reappeared over at The Seattle Times late on Sunday evening. This is a 'boots on the ground' story of how a modern society is forced to cope with one of the 'necessities of life' that it doesn't have at the moment...and that's a steady supply of electricity.
I thank reader U.D. for sending this along...and it's a very worthwhile article...so I hope you can find the time. The link is here.
Without much doubt, pretty much everyone on Planet Earth has had the world 'tsunami' redefined in their minds since the big March 11th subduction earthquake in Japan...this writer included. This is an amazing piece of video...and as the zerohedge.com piece says..."nothing but the brute force of nature here." It's a must watch...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sharing it with us...and the link is here.
I stole the headline and the story from a GATA release that came out on Friday. It's a Reuters piece filed from Beijing...and the first paragraph pretty much sums up the entire article. "Loose monetary policies in developed economies will place more upward pressure on global commodity prices and weigh on the dollar this year, the Chinese central bank said on Friday.". The link is here.
Zimbabwe’s government will make sure foreign companies are “junior partners” in the country, President Robert Mugabe said after the state published regulations to take 51 percent of foreign-operated mines.
This is Washington state reader S.A.'s second contribution to today's column. It's posted over at businessweek.com...and filed from Johannesburg...and the link is here.
I have a large number of precious metals related stories today as well...and this one is first of many.
This is a GATA release of a Financial Times story that was posted in that paper yesterday. Vietnamese gold traders have sent billions of dollars worth of high-grade gold jewellery to be smelted in Switzerland over the past two years to circumvent government restrictions on bullion exports. It's on the longish side, but well worth the read...and the link is here.
Here's a second gold-related story out of the Financial Times...this one from their Saturday edition. It appears that precious metals refiners are operating at full capacity in Europe [and elsewhere, one would presume]..."now going three shifts, 24 hours a day, every day of the year." as the story states.
"As a gold arb friend of mine in London says: "The 400-ounce bars are over the EasyJet carry-on limit, not of real use to man nor beast. Kilo bars are what people want these days." The buyers of kilo bars, stamped with fancy Swiss logos, tend to be Europeans or Asians."
This is a must read story...and the link to the GATA release is here.
Here's another GATA release...and I'm just going to steal Chris Powell's heading and preamble...and post the link.
Gold's ascent, GoldMoney founder and Free Gold Money Report publisher James Turk writes, is better described as hyperbolic rather than parabolic, and hyperbolic is much faster than parabolic. Further, Turk writes, gold is going hyperbolic not only against the U.S. dollar...but also against the British pound, the euro, and the Swiss franc. Turk, a longtime consultant to GATA, believes that hyperinflation of the major currencies is imminent. His new commentary is headlined "Gold's Hyperbolic Trajectory" and you can find it at the Free Gold Money Report Internet site here.
Here's a story that was posted over at cnbc.com's "Fast Money" website yesterday, which was sent to me by reader Jack Anderson. The author is correct, but once again there's no mention made of the real reason that silver's price is rising...and that's JPMorgan's attempt to get out of its monster short position in the Comex futures market. It's a short read that's worth your time...and the link is here.
Reader 'David in California' provides this next silver-related story that was posted over at Kitco yesterday.
“This GMFS report demonstrates how buoyant silver industrial demand is, not only because of the lack of substitution, but also because of the wide range of established and growing new uses that make up industrial demand,” said Michael DiRienzo, executive director of the Silver Institute. “This report maintains that we expect to see robust gains in industrial silver demand over the next five years, further emphasizing silver’s essential role in industry.”
I sure hope that you're getting your share as well, dear reader...and the link to this worthwhile piece is here.
As you are more than aware, I have all the time in the world for whatever Jim Rickards has to say. He did an interview with Eric King over at King World News that was posted on Sunday...and it's very much worth listening to. Jim adds a personal observation about what he sees as China's desperation to get gold.
This week probably hasn't provided an interview about economic issues more relevant than this one. Chris Powell's extensive preamble is worth your time as well...and the link to this must listen interview is here.
Here's another story that I ripped from a GATA release yesterday. Once again, Chris Powell does the heavy lifting... "At Coin News, Darrin Lee Unser reports at length on U.S. Rep. Ron Paul's legislation to legalize competition in currencies in the United States. The proposed Free Competition in Currency Act would eliminate capital gains taxes on gold and silver coins, repeal legal tender laws, and repeal the federal prohibition against private mints, the law recently used to destroy the Liberty Dollar operation and convict its founder, Bernard von NotHaus. The Coin News report is headlined "Ron Paul Introduces Free Competition in Currency Act of 2011" and the link is here.
Here's a Reuters story that I pulled from yet another GATA release yesterday. A global push to damp down wild swings in oil and other commodity prices reached a pivotal point on Monday as big traders mounted their last attack on a U.S. plan to limit the role of speculators. The plan to impose "position limits", which has been under debate since prices first surged to records in 2007 and 2008, is now reaching its culmination, with companies rushing to submit their views to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission by yesterday's deadline. This is very much worth your time...and the link is here.
Here's a zerohedge.com piece that's posted over at the businessweek.com website that was sent to me by Washington state reader S.A. You can see that this 'position limits' issue that Ted Butler has been going on about in silver for the last twenty-five years, is a very big deal to all the big banks that are up to their necks rigging the commodity markets. That's why the monthly Bank Participation Report and Ted Butler's weekly 'Days to Cover Short Positions' graph are so important...as it shows what the banks are up to in each commodity that's traded on the Comex.
This is what CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler and Commissioner Bart Chilton are up against. The other three [voting] members of the committee are all Republicans...and they all represent the big banks and don't give a damn about a level playing field. Until one of these board members is replaced by someone who wants these changes to happen, this position limits thing could drag on for a while. We'll see.
This isn't a very long piece...but worth the read...and the link is here.
My last gold-related story today is a real bombshell as far as I'm concerned. I'm not even going to try and do it justice by explaining it myself...as Chris Powell does it so well in the linked GATA release.
As Chris so eloquently puts it..."The World Gold Council's letter to the CFTC has been posted at GATA's Internet site here -- but apparently not at the council's own Internet site. One has to wonder here whether the council is representing mining companies or their bankers instead."
I don't wonder about it all...as GATA has always suspected that the reason why the WGC was originally formed was to prevent a real World Gold Council from getting started. The 7-page letter that's linked in this GATA release is a must read...as is Chris Powell's extensive introduction...and the link is here.
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It looks like onward and upward for gold and silver. – Jim Rickards, King World News...Sunday, March 27, 2011
It was an interesting day in the gold market yesterday...and I really don't know what to make of it. Who were the sellers...and who were the buyers? I don't know...but it could have been the bullion banks working both sides of the trade, as they're certainly capable of it.
Monday's gold volume, once the monstrous number of roll-overs are removed, was extremely light...around 50,000 contracts! This is an incredibly low number. The preliminary open interest numbers was 7,526 contracts...and, based on yesterday's price action, I expect that number to decline by quite a bit...but I've been wrong about this sort of thing before.
Friday's final open interest number for gold showed a decline of 5,729 contracts and...considering that it's the roll-over into the next front month for gold...I'd say that this decline was probably spread related...but that won't be known with absolute certainty until this Friday's COT report. The preliminary open interest number on Friday indicated that a decline in o.i. was forthcoming when the final number was posted...and that turned out to be the case...this time.
Silver's volume netted out to about 55,000 contracts...which, for the first time I can remember, was a higher volume than was traded in gold. Preliminary open interest numbers shows as 3,920...and I'll be interested in seeing what the final number is when it's posted on the CME's website later this morning.
Friday's final open interest number for silver showed a decline of 909 contracts, which is always nice to see...and pretty much in line with what the preliminary number indicated.
March open interest is now down to 330 contracts...and once the 290 contracts posted for delivery on Wednesday are subtracted from that number, it's obvious that there will be very few contracts left to deliver during these final two days in the March delivery month. All the talk out there of a default ended up as just that...talk. But, having said that, the deliveries in the March contract went right down to the wire...something that Ted has never seen before in silver, or any other commodity for that matter. He's worked in, or studied these markets, for almost forty years...so he should know.
The backwardation issue is starting to ease a bit, as some of the premiums in the next twelve month delivery schedule have widened out as much as five cents...and the total backwardation from March 2011 out to December 2015 is now down to seventy-six cents. It was well over eighty cents last week...and over a dollar the week before that. I don't know what to make of it all, but I'll keep an eye on it until it hatches into something...one way or another.
In Far East and early London trading this morning...the dollar and gold are both down at bit...with silver down more than a bit. Gold's volume, once you remove all the roll-overs, is basically zero...and silver's volume appears to be about average. It's very quiet out there as of 4:49 a.m. Eastern time. But, as you know, that can change in a heart beat if a serious buyer or seller makes an appearance.
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I don't have foggiest idea what the New York trading day will bring. We got a rally out of it yesterday, but that's no guarantee that it will happen for two days running...but we'll find out soon enough what the bullion banks have in store for us during today's Comex session.
See you on Wednesday.