Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Mar 19, 2011 10:28AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
"It would take almost five months of world silver production to cover the short positions of the '8 or less' bullion banks."
Gold was up one percent yesterday, which was nice to see...but, considering what's going on out there in the world, it's just a drop in the bucket. The gold price made a serious attempt to break above the $1,420 spot level just before lunch time in London, but got hammered flat shortly after trading began in New York less than an hour later. From there, the gold price basically traded within about a five dollar price range for the rest of the day. Gold's high of the day [$1,425.00 spot] came about ten minutes after the Comex open.
Silver [along with palladium] was the star of the day yesterday. After rising about eighty cents during the morning in the Far East, the silver price traded sideways until it, too, spiked in price shortly before the lunch hour in London...and received the same treatment as gold about fifteen minutes after the Comex opened in New York.
The silver price then traded around $35.10 for the rest of the Comex session...and then had a bit of a rally going into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. Eastern. Silver's high price of the day ]$35.44 spot] came at 8:35 a.m. Eastern, before one of the usual not-for-profit sellers showed up.
The dollar spiked briefly in early morning trading in the Far East on Friday...but then immediately rolled over and closed the New York trading session on its absolute low of the day...and the week.
Here's a nifty four-years-and-a-bit dollar graph that Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com sent me last night. As Nick states in the box on the graph, the world's reserve currency just broke down out of a 3-year wedge formation...and you can read into that whatever you wish. To me, it looks pretty ominous.
The gold shares pretty much followed the gold price around yesterday...and the HUI finished up 1.90% on the day. Here's the HUI for the week that was...and we're only about ten points away from break-even after Tuesday's big bear raid in both silver and gold.
And, for the second day running, the silver shares did much better than their golden counterparts. I guess that should be of no particular surprise considering the fact that silver really outperformed gold...something we're going to see a lot more of in the future.
Friday's CME Daily Delivery Report showed that two gold, along with two whole silver contracts, were posted for delivery on Tuesday. We've only got eight delivery days left in March before the balance of March's open interest has to be delivered by the short contract holders to the long contract holders. This is getting really interesting.
Despite the bear raid in gold and silver on Tuesday, only GLD reported any metal withdrawn...and that was only around 30,000 ounces on Tuesday. Other than that, both GLD and SLV have continued to rise. This was the case on Friday as well. GLD added another big chunk of gold in as many days...and this time it was 292,585 ounces. SLV added 588,089 ounces of silver. Both Ted and I were astonished by this turn of events.
The U.S. Mint had a smallish sales report yesterday...adding another 4,500 ounces of gold eagles to its sales for the month. Month-to-date the mint has sold 47,000 ounces of gold eagles along with 1,417,000 silver eagles.
Thursday was a busy day over at the Comex-approved warehouses. They reported receiving 694,164 ounces of silver...and shipped out 530,031 ounces...for a net gain of 164,133 troy ounces. The link to the action is here.
Friday's Commitment of Traders report [for positions held at the end of trading on Tuesday, March 15th] showed further improvements in the bullion banks' short positions. In silver, they reduced their net short position by 1,929 contracts...which represents about 9.65 million ounces of silver.
It wasn't anywhere near what Ted and I were expecting to see after Tuesday's bear raid in the silver market...and we both suspect that some of Tuesday's numbers did not make it into yesterday's COT report...and were included in the open interest declines that were reported on Wednesday and Thursday.
Ted also mentioned that, despite the horrific $2.30 top-to-bottom move in the silver price...maybe that's all the contracts that the bullion banks could cover. We'll see.
In gold, the bullion banks covered a whopping 27,310 contracts...which is 2.73 million ounces...and that, dear reader, is a lot! The Commercial net short position is back down to 22.0 million ounces...and has improved even more since the Tuesday cut-off.
Ted feels that unless JPMorgan et al launch a full-scale attack on the gold price in order to drive down the silver price, we've probably already seen the lows for this move down in silver...and I agree.
[Here's Ted's "Days to Cover Short Positions" graph that Nick Laird was kind enough to upgrade for me late last night. I note that it would take almost five months of world silver production to cover the short positions of the '8 or less' bullion banks. It would take about sixty-five days of world silver production just to cover JPMorgan's silver price. Incredible, isn't it?
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has been buying gold hand over fist for the last four years running...and 2010 was another one for the record books. But that has not continued into the first two months of this year. In January they reported no purchases at all...and yesterday they reported their purchases for February...and they only bought 100,000 ounces of gold.
Here's Nick Laird's chart of the Russian Central Bank's activities as of yesterday's February update. One has to wonder why they've stopped buying. The thought crossed my mind that they still are buying, but no longer reporting it. That wouldn't surprise me either...but I'll file that thought under 'conspiracy theories' until further notice.
I have a lot of stories today, as I've been saving half a dozen for Saturday that I just didn't have room for during the week, so I hope you have the time to wade through them all.
The first is this finance.yahoo.com story that was sent to me by reader Scott Pluschau. The estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says that if Obama's February budget submission is enacted into law, it would produce deficits totaling $9.5 trillion over 10 years -- an average of almost $1 trillion a year. Obama's budget saw deficits totaling $7.2 trillion over the same period. A trillion here, a trillion there...soon we'll be talking about real money! I remember that quote when the number was only a billion dollars...and that wasn't too many years ago, either. The link is here.
Today's next offering comes from Roy Stephens...and is posted over at The Huffington Post. A Wall Street Journal editorial writer who has been closely involved with the paper's recent attacks on Elizabeth Warren, is a former Goldman Sachs banker. The same editorial writer, Mary Kissel, is readying another piece critical of Warren and the new consumer agency, according to a source familiar with the coming article.
Of course Elizabeth Warren is a real straight shooter...and someone like her in charge of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is the last thing that Wall Street and the banking system want. The link to the story is here.
Here's a GATA release that contains a story from yesterday's edition of The New York Times about the computer programmer who got caught stealing Goldman's computer code for market-rigging operations. He just got sentenced to eight years in the Crowbar Hilton. Both the story...and Chris Powell's preamble...are well worth the read...and the link is here.
Here's a Bloomberg story that I found in the wee hours of Friday morning just after I'd hit the 'send' button on Friday's column. The unfolding disaster at the Fukushima nuclear plant follows decades of falsified safety reports, fatal accidents and underestimated earthquake risk in Japan's atomic power industry. This is certainly worth reading...and the link is here.
This next item was posted over at aljazeera.com early this morning...and was sent to me by Roy Stephens. The United States has accused Muammar Gaddafi of defying international demands for an immediate ceasefire, and France's UN envoy predicted military action within hours of an international meeting on Libya on Saturday. It will be interesting to see what develops over the weekend. The link is here.
Roy has two more international stories for us. The first one was posted over at the Asia Times website early on their Saturday morning. China [along with Russia and other countries] abstained in the U.N. vote over a 'no-fly' zone.
China's attitude is not so much a big surprise. History will probably vindicate China's mealy-mouthed and self-serving stance that the response to the serial crises in the Middle East should be guided by the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of nations.
And history may vindicate China sooner than most people expect. The most interesting and dangerous element in the no-fly-zone debate is the dawning awareness that ''Responsibility to Protect'' - R2P aka humanitarian intervention in do-gooder jargon - is not just a Western monopoly.
There's a real history lesson with regards to current African/Middle East politics that I absolutely guarantee that few people know much about...including this writer. It's a 3-page tome...and for any student of the new "Great Game"...it's a must read. The link is here.
Roy's last offering is this Reuters piece that was filed from Sana'a...Yemen's capital city. Gunmen on rooftops shot dead up to 42 protesters at an anti-government rally in Sanaa after Muslim prayers on Friday, enraging the opposition and prompting President Ali Abdullah Saleh to declare a state of emergency. Medical sources and witnesses told Reuters that Yemeni security forces and plainclothes snipers, who protesters said were government security men, had opened fire on the crowds. The link is here.
Here's another story from the 'You can't make this stuff up' file. Reader Ken Metcalfe sent it along...and it's a story posted over at msnbc.com yesterday that's filed from Sangin, Afghanistan. In a war where winning the hearts and minds of Afghans is the ultimate goal, damaging homes with powerful explosives and bulldozing a mosque and scores of other buildings may not sound like a wise idea.
"We are here to rebuild, but sometimes that takes destruction," said Capt. Matthew Peterson, a company commander whose Marines were tasked in late December with clearing a key part of southern Helmand province's Sangin district — the most dangerous place for coalition troops in Afghanistan last year. The link is here.
Here's a youtube.com video that was sent to me by reader Doug Beiers earlier this week. It's only 2:09 in length...but I guarantee that this video clip will be show in every geology and structural/civil engineering class for decades to come. It was taken by CNN iReporter Brent Kooi the day of the big earthquake in Japan.
It shows compression waves as they propagate through the earth...and how it affects ground liquefaction...one of the big problems associated with the Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake of last month. As the compression waves pass through the earth every few seconds, it shows not only the ground movement...but the water and mud shooting out of the ground like one would squeeze a sponge...which is essentially what this ground is.
As the reporter notes, the lawn he's photographing used to be part of Tokyo Bay...and has now been 'reclaimed'. It's not as dramatic as the other tsunami videos...but it's still a sight to see...and the link is here.
This is an unedited version of Jeremy Paxman's interview with Professor in linguistics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), philosopher, cognitive scientist and political activist, Noam Chomsky. The discussion is about the uprising in the North African nations...and other places. It's a posting over at news.bb.co.uk...and was sent to me by British reader Tariq Khan. Tariq made the comment that "Times are indeed changing when the BBC interviews the likes of Noam Chomsky." The interview runs about 21 minutes...and it's well worth watching. The link is here.
Here's a very interesting article from NASA Science that I picked up over at spaceweather.com earlier this week. Every hundred years or so, a solar storm comes along so potent it fills the skies of Earth with blood-red auroras, makes compass needles point in the wrong direction, and sends electric currents coursing through the planet's topsoil. The most famous such storm, the Carrington Event of 1859, actually shocked telegraph operators and set some of their offices on fire. A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences warns that if such a storm occurred today, we could experience widespread power blackouts with permanent damage to many key transformers.
With the increased sunspot activity as we approach the next sunspot maximum, there are all kinds of wild stories out there about the disasters associated with it...but here's the straight bill of goods from the folks over at NASA. The link is here.
This longish piece was sent to me by reader Jason Hall earlier this week...and I've been saving it for this column. It's a must read from one end to the other...and don't let the title fool you.
The author, Seth Lipsky is the founding editor of the New York Sun. A graduate of Harvard College, he served in the U.S. Army in Vietnam as a combat correspondent for Pacific Stars and Stripes. A former senior editor and member of the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal, he has also served as editorial page editor of The Wall Street Journal/Europe, managing editor of The Asian Wall Street Journal, and assistant editor of Far Eastern Economic Review. In 2009, he published The Citizen’s Constitution: An Annotated Guide.
This essay is adapted from a speech delivered on February 16, 2011, at a Hillsdale College National Leadership Seminar in Phoenix, Arizona. So top up your coffee, then click here.
My last four stories are all precious metals-related...and the first one came from a GATA release yesterday. Liberty Dollar founder Bernard von NotHaus was convicted yesterday on federal charges in Statesville, N.C. The case has local implications, because Asheville Liberty Dollar head Kevin Innes also faces trial. Innes has asserted that he is innocent of any wrongdoing, and sought local support.
This whole thing was a show trial from beginning to end, of course...especially considering the fact the many States of the Union...lead by Utah...are bringing back gold and silver as competing currencies for the U.S. dollar within their own states.
I suggest that you read this story...and the link to the GATA release is here.
Here's a story from mineweb.com filed from Istanbul that was sent to me by reader 'David in California' yesterday. Gold imports into Turkey, the world's fourth-biggest gold consumer, are expected to rise by around 50 percent in 2011 and jewellery exports by 15-20 percent, a Turkish gold banker said. Turkey's gold imports rose to 42.49 tonnes in 2010, up 13 percent from the previous year. Jewellery exports reached a value of $1.2 billion. The link is here.
I stole this headline...and the preamble...from Chris Powell's GATA release on this. Pervasive government intervention in the economy has distorted markets and prices and even caused people to forget what money is, Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies writes this week at CNBC. But, he adds, the Internet is helping people remember, and what they remember is yellow and shiny. Davies' commentary is linked here.
Reader George Findlay has our last item of the day. It's a posting over at citywire.co.uk that's datelined yesterday. New claims that the silver price is being manipulated have prompted a senior US regulator Gary Gensler to criticise the agency regulating commodity markets –the very agency that he oversees.
Silver analyst Ted Butler's name figures prominently in this article as well. This is also an absolute must read...and the link is here.
Sponsor Advertisement |
Rye Patch Gold Corp.( TSX.V: RPM; OTCBB: RPMGF) is exploring well-known mineral trends in Nevada - the world's fourth-richest gold region. Starting with 150,000 inferred ounces of gold in mid-2007, this well-funded Company now has approximately 1.2-million ounces of gold and gold equivalent in the measured and indicated category, plus 2.7-million ounces of gold and gold equivalent in the inferred category. Rye Patch Gold is a Tier 1, Nevada-focused and discovery-driven company seeking to build a sizeable inventory of gold and silver resource assets in the mining friendly state of Nevada, USA. The Company's seasoned management team is engaged in acquisition, exploration and development of quality resource-based gold and silver projects. Rye Patch Gold is developing its primary assets -- the advanced-stage Wilco, Lincoln Hill, Jessup, and Gold Ridge projects located along the emerging Oreana gold trend in west-central Nevada. The Company has established gold and silver resource milestones and time frames in order to build a premier resource development company. For more information about Rye Patch Gold, please visit our website. |
Gold did just OK yesterday...and volume was light. The preliminary open interest number is pretty high, so it's a good bet that yesterday's rally did not go unopposed, as I'm sure that the bullion banks were going short on this rally. But we won't know which ones they are until next Friday's COT report.
Gold's final open interest number on Thursday showed another decline. This time it was 4,076 contracts...but, as I mentioned in the preceding paragraph, I'm expecting o.i. to show an increase on Monday after yesterday's rally.
Silver's volume was very light as well...and the preliminary open interest number is pretty low, so I'm hoping that yesterday's big rally involved some short covering. I'll know on Monday morning when the final numbers are posted on the CME's website.
Silver also showed a decline in open interest on Thursday...but only 208 contracts. Considering how good the preliminary number looked, I was hoping for more.
March open interest is now down to 898 contracts...because the final Thursday number showed a decline of 161 contracts. Considering the fact that there are no contracts to be delivered on Monday...and only two on Tuesday...I'm not expecting this number to change by much for the next couple of days.
The backwardation situation changed a bit on Friday. The spreads widened out to almost three cents in the near months...and the in the March 2011 to December 2015 delivery months, backwardation has dropped from around $1.05 to about 85 cents. As I said yesterday, these spreads can change without notice...and they are. I'm sure there will be more in the days and weeks ahead. The link to the Silver Futures Settle numbers for Friday's trading is here.
Here's Nick Laird's "Silver 7 Sentiment Index" graph updated as of the end of the Friday trading day. It shows that we are well off the lows...and about 10% below the all-time high for this move.
There's still a bit of time left to either readjust your portfolio...or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold...and I respectfully suggest that you take a trial subscription to either Casey Research's International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best [and current] recommendations...as well as the archives. A subscription to the International Speculator also includes a free subscription to BIG GOLD as well. And don't forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.
That's more than enough for one day. Enjoy the rest of your weekend...and I'll see you here on Tuesday.