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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Silver Is The New Gold

Gold scrap scarcity hobbles Indian refineries. Egypt Bans Export Of Gold "In Any Form". Vietnam to outlaw the gold market? An interview with Ted Butler...and much, much more.

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Gold spent most of the Monday trading day attempting to break above the $1,415 spot level, but never quite made it...as there always appeared to be an eager seller around when the price got above that level. And, once gain, the gold price got hit after Comex trading was done for the day...and the thinly-traded electronic market began. But despite that kick in the teeth, the gold price recovered and closed up a couple of bucks on the day.

The silver price traded within twenty cents either side of $33.50 for most of the Monday trading day...and only took off at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time on the button...which is the London p.m. gold fix. [The gold price also popped a bit at 10:00 a.m. Eastern...but it doesn't stand out on the chart...but it is there]

Silver spent the rest of the Comex trading session in New York trying to get above $34 spot price...but never quite made it either...and right at the Comex close, sellers hit the price for about fifty cents before it recovered and finished the electronic trading session just under the $34 mark. The high tick around 11:15 a.m. Eastern was $34.04 spot.

Both gold and silver look like they want to move higher to me.

The dollar didn't do much yesterday, but it did end up finishing lower...and closed below 77 cents for the first time since way back in November, which I consider to be a rather ominous sign. The long-term dollar chart doesn't look any happier today than it did late last week when I posted the 2-year chart. Here's Monday's action.

And here's the 2-year US$ chart once again.

The gold stocks gapped up at the open...and stayed up until 11:15 a.m. before rolling over. The HUI hit its nadir shortly before 3:00 p.m...and then began to rally along with gold price itself. By the time the trading day was over at 4:00 p.m...the HUI was up 1.59%. The silver stocks did much better, of course, as the gold/silver spread narrowed in to a new low for this move.

And here's the 3-year gold/silver ratio graph. It points out the obvious...silver is outperforming gold...and has been for a couple of years. That's why I'm 75%/25% in silver equities.

The CME's Daily Delivery Report shows that 120 gold, along with 42 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. This is the second delivery day in the March silver contract...and to only have 294 contracts posted for delivery out of the current 4,250 contracts still open in March, is truly incredible.

Silver analyst Ted Butler had this to say about it in his weekly review to clients on Saturday..."Offsetting the relatively small number of open contracts in March [4,250] is an even smaller number of contracts offered on the first notice day of 252 contracts. [Of special note is that JPMorgan didn't issue any silver deliveries, unlike their pattern over the past two years.] This is about the smallest number of contracts tendered in my memory for what is usually the heaviest day for deliveries in any physical commodity, including silver...as it makes little economic sense for those shorts intending to make delivery to delay beyond the first delivery day...this is another indication of wholesale physical tightness."

Yesterday's CME Delivery Report is here...and it's worth checking out.

There was a small decline in GLD yesterday...only 19,510 ounces...but another decline nonetheless. There was no report from SLV.

The U.S. Mint posted its last sales report for February. They sold another 5,000 ounces of gold eagles...along with 575,000 silver eagles. For the entire month, the mint sold 92,500 ounces of gold eagles...along with 3,240,000 silver eagles. In the first two months of 2001, the mint has sold 9,662,000 silver eagles...and that, dear reader, is a lot! 300.5 tonnes of silver to be exact.

The Comex-approved depositories reported receiving no silver last Friday...but did ship 378,386 troy ounces of it out the door. The link to that action is here.

Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com is one of the great mind readers of this century...and just knew that I was thinking about his "Silver Seven Stock Index" chart. Here it is, in all its glory.

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¤ Critical Reads

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Dollar's safe-haven status hangs in the balance

My first story today is a GATA release of an article out of yesterday's Financial Times. Long seen as a place of safety in times of turmoil, the dollar may be losing its haven appeal. This time, though, while the traditional havens of the Swiss franc and the yen have benefited, the US currency has suffered. "It seems the dollar's haven status has vanished," says Steve Barrow at Standard Bank. "And even for long-term dollar bears like ourselves, this is a worry." Link here.

Ireland Gets a New Prime Minister: With New Government, EU Could Become Next Battleground

Today's next story is courtesy of Roy Stephens and was posted over at the German website spiegel.de yesterday. Ireland's future prime minister has a tough job ahead of him: Voters who backed Enda Kenny expect him to take a tough line and renegotiate the terms of the country's EU bailout. Some are hoping that his ties with German Chancellor Angela Merkel will lend a helping hand. Link here.

'I won't pay' movement spreads across Greece

Reader Steve Pierce sent me the following AP story that was posted over at msbnc.com a week ago.They blockade highway toll booths to give drivers free passage. They cover subway ticket machines with plastic bags so commuters can't pay. Even doctors are joining in, preventing patients from paying fees at state hospitals. Many see the "I Won't Pay" movement as something much simpler: the people's refusal to pay for the mistakes of a series of governments accused of squandering the nation's future through corruption and cronyism. Link here.

Walker's World: Arab spring turns chill

Roy Stephens sent me the following UPI story that was filed from Paris yesterday. It took a while, but it's becoming ever more clear that the North African revolutions are unlikely to unfold like a morality play in which good defeats evil, not like a fairy tale in which all live happily ever after. Those concerned that the "Arab Spring" isn't turning out quite as happily as hoped should brace themselves. It can get a great deal worse. This is well worth the read...and the link is here.

Confessions of an Economic Hit Man: John Perkins

I've mentioned John's book on many occasions in this column over the years. It's how the American Empire subverts entire nations and bends them to her will. This longish interview was originally posted over at The Daily Bell...but has been reprinted at the lewrockwell.com website...and I thank reader U.D. for sharing it with us. This is a must read...and so is his book. The link is here.

Today's Precious Metal Close Banging Moment Brought By The Fine People At The Comex

The rest of my stories today are all precious metals related in one form or another. Today's first item is from Washington state reader S.A...and is a posting over at zerohedge.com. As you can tell from Monday's silver chart, the silver price got hit once again in the thinly-traded electronic market after the Comex close...and T.D. wants to know "who is banging the close in your silver?" It's a short read, with a neat graph...and it's linked here.

Gold scrap scarcity hobbles Indian refineries

This next story showed up in a GATA release yesterday...and Chris Powell's headline is much better than the one that the story actually carries. It reads "Gold Refineries' Operating Capacity Declines"....and is posted over at the Indian website business-standard.com. It's not overly long, but definitely worth your time...and the link is here.

Egypt Bans Export Of Gold "In Any Form"

Reader Tariq Khan kindly provided our next reading material today. It's another posting over at zerohedge.com. According to Reuters..."Egypt has issued a ministerial decree immediately banning the export of gold in all its forms, including jewellery and ornaments, until June 30, the official news agency MENA said on Sunday. "This decision, which comes in light of the exceptional circumstances the country is passing through ..., is to preserve the country's wealth until the situation stabilizes,". Not too many shades of grey in that...and the link is here.

Silver is the new gold: Prices double in a year

Here's a story that was sent to me by reader Ray Wiberg...and posted over at the emirates247.com website on Sunday. Silver is now up 16.77 per cent in the past 30 days and according to traders, has more than doubled in the last one year, trading as it was at $16.24/oz on February 27, 2010. This is now leading precious metal analysts to argue that silver will see much more appreciation in the months to come, especially since the extent of global silver reserves are debatable. Ted Butler's work is getting around...even over in the Middle East. The link is here.

Gold price loves a crisis

This gold story was posted in The Telegraph very early on Monday morning...and is courtesy of reader Nick Laird of sharelynx.com fame. "Gold is a form of crisis insurance, one that just keeps paying," Bullion Vault's Adrian Ash said. "If you bought when Northern Rock started to crumble you would have doubled your money by now. It has kept paying out as crisis insurance for the past four years." And it's got many more years to go. The link is here.

Gold Coiled, Hyperinflation May Be in the Cards: Ben Davies

The gold chart is coiled tightly and continued dollar debasement can only push the price up and raise the prospect of hyperinflation, Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies told King World News yesterday. It's a short blog...and the link is here.

To prevent gold market manipulation, Vietnam would outlaw the market

This next story was in yesterday's edition of the Financial Times out of London...and is posted in the clear in this GATA release. The FT headline reads "Vietnamese Weight Impact of Bar on Gold Trade". Buffeted by persistent inflation and weakness in their currency, many Vietnamese prefer to save in gold and dollars. Their fondness for gold, which is often used to settle property deals and other large transactions, and for dollars puts further downward pressure on their currency, the dong, in a negative feedback loop from which it is hard to escape. This story is an absolute must read...as is Chris Powell's preamble...and the link is here.

The Miners' Penance: The Wallace Street Journal

Next is this essay by my good friend David Bond over at silverminers.com in Wallace, Idaho. What, exactly, is the price of a miner's penance? We have a working number and you should be sitting down for this. The United Snakes government's shame price, the price which an American miner must pay to ensure that he will not be further persecuted for producing metals that for millennia have been used as honest money, and additionally metals which enable cell-phones, Volvos and Prius cars, refrigerators, is: Seven hundred and thirty-one thousand and 667 dollars and some change - $731,666.66 to be precise...per miner. Per Lucky Friday miner at Hecla's operations in northern Idaho. All in, $263.4 million: two-hundred sixty-three point four million dollars. Dave takes no prisoners...and the link is here.

Interview With Silver Analyst Ted Butler

Lastly today, is this longish interview [probably 30 minutes or so] with silver analyst Ted Butler by Dr. Dave Janda over at WAAM 1600 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Anything that Ted has to say, is worth listening to. He hardly ever publishes anything in the public domain anymore...so this is your chance to hear it from the horse's mouth. It's a must listen...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

¤ The Wrap

I'm convinced the US government will go bankrupt, but not tomorrow. Before they go bankrupt, they'll print money, and then you'll get very high inflation rates. Then you get a depression with high inflation. Then eventually they'll go to war.- Dr. Marc Faber

Gold volume was not overly heavy yesterday...just north of 105,000 contracts net of all spreads. The preliminary open interest numbers indicate that gold o.i. will show an increase when the final numbers are posted later this morning.

In silver, volume was around 50,000 contracts net on Monday. Silver's preliminary o.i. number is hard to read...and if there is much of a change either up or down, it won't be a lot.

Also of note in these preliminary numbers, the March open interest has taken another nose dive...and is now down to 3,085 contracts from the 4,250 final contract number that was posted on the CME's website late yesterday morning. As I mentioned in the CME Delivery Report, only 294 silver contracts have been posted for delivery so far this month...which is less than 10% of even this new low March open interest number. It remains to be seen if anything comes of this.

Friday's final open interest numbers show that gold's o.i. fell by 4,375 contracts...and in silver it was down another 1,091 contracts. This is all very encouraging...especially for silver.

Now for the silver backwardation issue. Using the CME's 'Settle' price from yesterday, there is a very tiny contango until we get into September...but it could disappear in a New York minute...and probably will, just as Ted Butler said it would. But, compared to the spot market, silver is in backwardation all the way out to December 2015...to the tune of around $1.32 as of yesterday's spot closing price in New York...and it's even a bit more as I write this paragraph.

With February now in the history books, it's a good bet that March's precious metal price actionwill be an education. I would not want to be out of, or short this market, for all the tea in China.

As of 4:51 a.m. Eastern time, both silver and gold are showing small gains...with the former now over the magical $34 spot level. Volume is light in both metals...even after two hour's worth of trading has passed in London.

As usual, we'll have to wait for the New York bullion banks to do their thing...and that showwill begin at 8:20 a.m. this morning. The London p.m. gold fix at 3:00 p.m. GMT/10:00 a.m. Eastern should be interesting as well.

See you tomorrow.

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