Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Feb 15, 2011 09:36AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Physical Demand For Gold And Silver Continues To Confound Bubble Believers. Silver to reach $50 by 2011, and gold at $8,000 by 2015 conservative - Turk...and much more.
¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver
The gold price didn't do much in Far East and early London trading on Monday...but shortly before the Comex opened, gold caught a bid. The high [$1,368.00 spot] came sometime between 10:00 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. Eastern time yesterday...as it was very broad top. But from that high, gold slid about six bucks going into the New York close...and was only up about $5 from its Friday close. Volume was light.
Silver had a far better time of it than gold yesterday. The silver price was held at or below $29.92 for the first six hours of trading in the Far East yesterday...and was only set free around 1:00 p.m. Hong Kong time. Silver gained about 20 cents from that point, until shortly before the New York open. Then, just like gold, the silver price took off to the upside...reaching its high tick of the day [$30.76 spot] about 10:40 a.m. in New York. At that point, either the buyer disappeared...or a not-for-profit seller showed up...and silver sold off about 20 cents before trading sideways in electronic trading. Silver volume was light as well.
The highlight of the dollar's day yesterday was a rally that began around 7:40 a.m. in London...and ended shortly after 11:00 a.m. in New York. From its low, the dollar was up about 55 basis points...but gave 25 of those back going into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time. If you're looking for any correlation between the dollar and gold yesterday...don't look too hard, as there wasn't any.
The gold shares gapped up a bit at the open yesterday...with the top coming around 10:15 a.m. in New York. That time was probably gold's high tick of the day as well...but it's hard to tell from looking at the gold graph above. By noon, the shares had given back some of their gains...and basically flat-lined going into the 4:00 p.m. close...and the HUI was only up 1.29% which, considering the smallish five dollar gain in the gold price, was actually a pretty good showing. With some notable exceptions, most [but not all] silver stocks were up about double that amount.
The CME Delivery Report on Monday is almost not worth the mention...as only 6 gold and 37 silver contracts were posted for delivery. The link to the 'action'...such as it was...is here.
There was no report from the GLD ETF yesterday...but SLV added 732,448 troy ounces of silver.
The U.S. Mint had a sales report yesterday as well. They sold another 3,000 ounces of gold eagles...along with a very chunky 719,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has reported selling 42,000 ounces of gold eagles...along with 1,705,500 ounces of silver eagles.
The Comex-approved depositories reported receiving 613,143 ounces of silver on Friday...and shipped out 273,784 ounces, for a net gain of 339,359 ounces. The link to that action is here.
Over the weekend I received an e-mail from Alasdair Macleod over atFinanceAndEcnomics.org. His works have appeared in this column many times in the past...and will again today. This is what he had to say regarding the Financial Times story about silver forward sales that I ran in this column on Saturday..."Ed, I was intrigued by the FT story you highlighted in today's Gold and Silver Daily, and I think there is a simple explanation, if it is indeed true."
"The FT story implies the transactions were initiated by the mining companies. I think this is unlikely, there being a greater likelihood that it was initiated by one of the big commercials, such as JPMorgan. Bearing in mind these are forward transactions, they do not appear in the public domain, and can be completed at any price, giving the bullion bank the opportunity to do a very special deal with a nice fat premium for a possibly reluctant miner. And what better time to do this, when the price has fallen and there is uncertainty in the market."
"So my guess is that it one of the Big Four [JPM?] covering its shorts, because there is no other way of doing so and the timing is opportune. Kind regards. Alasdair"
Silver analyst Ted Butler and I had a very long conversation on the phone yesterday about this Financial Times story that reported on the 100 million ounces sold forward by the silver mining companies...and Ted agrees that Alasdair may have a point.
The FT story is misleading in some respects, because it insinuates that all of these forward sales had just occurred during the first six weeks of 2011, when silver prices were at their peak...then heading lower. That was not the case at all, as most of these hedges were placed many months prior to the end of 2010.
Of that 100 million ounces, the standout was the 70 million ounces sold forward by Mexican silver company Minera Frisco...in which Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim has a huge position. These hedges were placed at $18.82 the ounce...and the last time we were that low in price, was back in the third week of August 2010...so that's probably when it happened.
Not only did they sell forward a huge chunk of silver...but they also did it for gold, lead, zinc and copper. Silver and gold hedges run for three years...and the base metals for two.
This is what Ted had to say about it in a note [headlined "Hedging Insanity"] to his subscribers yesterday..."I don't think I have ever seen such a dangerous hedge book [and I've seen plenty]. By my calculations, the company is already in the hole for upwards of $600 million on all its metal hedges...with silver accounting for $300 million of that total. Its additional exposure will be many times that amount if prices move higher, as they are expected to do."
This sound exactly like what happened to Apex Silver many years back...and they ended up filing for bankruptcy. It's also similar to what happened to Ashanti Gold...and AngloGold had to come along and take it over because their hedge book had become toxic. And let's not forget a Canadian gold company called Cambior. As Ted went on to say..."The hedging experience [also] cost Barrick Gold $10 billion in total."
Based on what happened to all four of these companies, I doubt that Minera Frisco will survive long enough to pay out its hedge book...and I also doubt that the owner [billionaire or not] will have deep enough pockets to cover his company's ever-increasing losses.
Well, dear reader, I wonder what bullion banks were the ones that did the deals on all these forward sales? Without doubt, virtually every ounce was hedged in the OTC market...so all this happened without causing a ripple in the silver price. I would bet a fair amount of coin that Alasdair is right on the money. This reeks of JPMorgan. As Ted Butler pointed out, the Minera Frisco deal alone is equivalent to 14,000 Comex contracts that JPMorgan might possibly have been able to cover in the OTC market. Stay tuned!
Before diving into my huge number of stories...here is a chart that Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com was kind enough to send out last night. It's titled "E-Bay 1oz. Silver Eagle Base Price Average"...and it need no further comments from me.
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I have so many stories in my in-box I just don't know what to do with them all. Just running through the headlines over the last three days, I can tell that the world is going to hell from one end to the other. It's wall-to-wall bad news. The situation is so fluid...and so dynamic...it's almost impossible to post a story that captures what's happening, as the situations are changing so rapidly.
I must admit that it will be up to you to do the final edit once again.
The first group of stories is from the United States...and leading the pack is this item from reader 'David in California'. It's a story posted in yesterday's edition of the businessinsider.com...and the startling headline reads "Wisconsin National Guard Prepares For Worker Unrest After Governor Unveils Emergency Budget". Expect to see much more of this in the U.S. as the year wears on...and the link is here.
The next story is from reader Scott Pluschau...and is posted over at the ktvu.com website...and is filed from San Jose, California. The headline reads "Latest Salaries for SJ City Employees Posted Online". They are something to see! Why should any public employee get paid that kind of money? It's definitely worth a look...and the link is here. Click on the video to bring it up to full-screen size.
Here's another story from Scott. This one was posted over at The Washington Times yesterday...and the headline reads "Federal deficit on track for a record this fiscal year: Government debt to exceed U.S. economy". Mr. Obama's budget projects that 2011 will see the biggest one-year debt jump in history, or nearly $2 trillion, to reach $15.476 trillion by Sept. 30th, the end of the fiscal year. That would be 102.6 percent of GDP - the first time since World War II that dubious figure has been reached. The link is here.
Roy Stephens provides a story from The Telegraph on the same issue...as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard teed this one up last night with the headline "Obama tests bond markets with mega-deficits". US President Barack Obama faces a stiff battle with Republican foes in Congress after unveiling plans for $7.2 trillion (£4.5 trillion) of deficit spending over the next decade, and making little attempt to control the spiralling costs of social security and medical entitlements. It's not a big read...and the link is here.
While we're on the subject of the bond market. Here's another chart that Nick Laird dropped in my in-box late last night. It's titled "US Bond Yields"...and the chart needs no further embellishment from me.
Reader Phil Barlett sent me this next piece out of yesterday's edition of The New York Times. The headline there reads "Companies Raise Prices as Commodity Costs Jump". A package of Oscar Mayer cold cuts. A pair of Nine West boots. A Whirlpool washing machine. By the fall, people will most likely be paying more for each of them, as rising prices hit most consumer goods, say retailers, food companies and manufacturers of consumer products. No surprises in this story...and the link is here.
Here's an item out of the Saturday edition of The Independent in the U.K. It's an AP story that bears the headline "Morales flees food price protests". Bolivian president Evo Morales has abruptly left the southern highlands city of Oruro after protesters angered by rising prices booed him and set off dynamite. Once a hugely popular figure, Mr. Morales' ratings have plummeted since he tried to lift subsidies on petrol, flour and sugar in December. This story...courtesy of reader 'David in California'...is only three very short paragraphs...and the link is here.
Today's next reading material comes from this story posted over at The Telegraph yesterday...and is courtesy of reader Roy Stephens. The headline reads "China is the world's second largest economy". China has become the world's second largest economy, with Japan surrendering its 42-year-old ranking after its economy shrank in the final months of 2010. This should be no surprise to anyone, either...and the link is here.
The next two stories are also courtesy of Roy Stephens...and both are posted over at the German website spiegel.de. If I had to pick two must read international stories out of this column, these two would be it. The first is headlined "The Chancellor's Lead Balloon: Europe Revolts Against Merkel's Euro-Zone Plan". The so-called "Pact for Competitiveness" proposed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy to further integrate the European Union on economic issues has not been well received. Biting criticism has come from across the European Union. The link to the story is here.
The second must read piece from this website is headlined 'Enormous Damage' - Weber's Exit Highlights Merkel's Euro Problem. Bundesbank head Axel Weber's resignation has made one thing clear: The debate about the future of the euro has become intense -- and bitter. Indeed, Chancellor Angela Merkel's efforts at mandating strict monetary discipline for the euro zone may ultimately fail. And German euro skeptics may be gaining ground. This is a longish read, but it's worth it, because it's history in the making...and the link is here.
As if Pakistan's government doesn't have enough problems these days. Here's another. It's a posting out of Saturday's edition of The Huffington Post...and is courtesy of reader 'David in California'. The longish headline reads "Musharraf Arrest Warrant Issued: Former Pakistan President Sought In Connection With Benazir Bhutto Assassination". A Pakistani court issued an arrest warrant for ousted military leader Pervez Musharraf on Saturday over allegations he played a role in the 2007 assassination of an ex-prime minister and rival. The story is filed from Islamabad...and the link is here.
Roy Stephens has our next story today. It's filed over at the france24.com website...and is headlined "Defying a ban, protesters demonstrate in heavily policed Algiers". Braving a massive police presence, thousands of anti-government protesters took to the streets of the Algerian capital of Algiers Saturday, defying an official ban on demonstrations and briefly forcing through a police cordon in the centre of the city. There were also massive demonstrations in Yemen as well. The link to the story is here.
Now there are demonstrations in Bahrain of all places. Unrest is spreading like wildfire in the Middle East. This story was sent to me by reader 'David in California'...and is headlined "Bahrain Now Bracing For Its Own Day Of Rage After Giving Every Family $2,660 Fails". Bahrain is expecting its own "day of rage" tomorrow as protesters hit the streets to challenge the pace of political reform in the country, according to the FT. The story was posted on Sunday over at the businessinsider.com website...and the link is here.
Washington state reader S.A. has our next story...and this one is out of Egypt...and is a posting over at The Huffington Post. The headline reads "How The Mubarak Family Made Its Billions". The story defines corruption. In 2005, the most senior official to defect in decades fled to Switzerland and began a campaign to have Mubarak put on trial at Belgium's International Court of Justice for corruption and human rights abuses. "The Mubarak era will be known in the history of Egypt as the era of thieves," said Mohammad Ghanam, former chairman of the legal research unit in the Egyptian Interior Ministry. The link is here.
Here's another story from Washington state reader S.A. that's directly linked to his previous offering. This is a posting over at slate.com...and the headline reads "Sitting on His Assets: How Switzerland was able to freeze Mubarak's Swiss bank accounts" Due to a recent change in Swiss law, however, if Mubarak has secreted illicit money away in a Swiss bank account, Egyptians just might get some of it back. "I can confirm that Switzerland has frozen possible assets of the former Egyptian president with immediate effect," a foreign ministry spokesperson told Reuters on Friday. The link is here.
Roy Stephens has another essay that's posted over at spiegel.com. This one's from yesterday...and is headlined The World From Berlin: 'The Revolution Isn't Over, It's Only Just Beginning'. With Hosni Mubarak out of power and the generals temporarily at the helm, Egypt appears to be on a path to democracy. The military has suspended the contested constitution and pledged free elections. German commentators have doubts about the army's commitment to true change -- but say the people have shown they won't stop fighting for freedom. It's not overly long...and well worth your time. The link is here.
Reader U.D. provides the last story on what's going on in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East...but this one has an American twist to it. The story posted over at zerohedge.com is headlined "Does America Need an Egyptian-Style Non-Violent Revolution?". If you are citizen of the United States...this is a must read...and the link is here.
I also have a whole pile of precious metal-related stories as well...and I hope you can wade through them, too. The first is a GATA release that Chris Powell has headlined "James Turk: Watch the gold/silver ratio". The title is self-explanatory...and Powell's short preamble is a must read as well. The link is here.
The next story is a GATA release as well. The headline reads "Alasdair Macleod discusses gold and silver with James Turk". I mentioned Alasdair's name earlier in this column...and have posted many of his essays in the past. This is your first opportunity to see what this guy looks like. The video interview is great...and well worth your time. The link is here.
Here's a Reuters story that ended up as a GATA release...and I'm just going to give you the headline...and the link..."US silver term structure inverts as supply tightens". Despite what the story says, we are not in backwardation in the near months...and that's what really counts. But we are close. The link is here.
The next offering I have for you today is courtesy of Australian reader Wesley Legrand. It's a posting over at mineweb.com that's headlined "Silver to reach $50 by 2011, and gold at $8,000 by 2015 conservative - Turk". It's a short read...and the link is here.
Here's a different kind of gold story for you, which is certainly worth your time. It's a story from the Sunday edition of The Independent in the U.K. The headline reads "Johannesburg at risk from acid lakes". Mines dug more than a century ago stretching about 25 miles along one of the world's largest gold deposits have reached their water-storage limit and will start leaking a toxic cocktail of chemicals in the coming months, independent experts and government officials have said. If you take the time to read this story, you'll find out that it's about to become a serious problem. The link to the story is here.
Well, here's another state of the Union that wants its own precious metal-backed currency. This time it's South Carolina. A South Carolina state politician wants the state to develop its own gold and silver-based currency in case the Federal Reserve collapses and hyper-inflation ensues. This piece is posted over at news.yahoo.com...and is courtesy of reader U.D. The headline reads "South Carolina lawmaker wants separate currency for state". It's worth your while...and the link is here.
Here's a gold and silver commentary in the main-stream press that's written by someone who actually knows what they're talking about. After reading it, it's obvious to me that the writer has been following the work of GATA and silver analyst Ted Butler for quite some time...and I could hardly have written it better myself. It's a story that was posted yesterday over at the businessinsider.com website...and the headline reads "Physical Demand For Gold And Silver Continues To Confound Bubble Believers". The story is courtesy of reader Bill Moomau...and it's certainly worth the time, if you have any left after getting this far. The link is here.
Lastly, and I'm just as happy as you are that this point has finally arrived, is this offering from GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant, James Turk that arrived in my in-box late last night. This one's headlined "Silver is Approaching Stage Two of its Bull Market". It's definitely worth the read...the chart is terrific...and the link is here.
Blessed are they who see beautiful things in humble places where others see nothing.---Camille Pissarro
As I mentioned earlier in this column, gold volume was very light yesterday...and the CME's preliminary report shows that...with volume of just under 105,000 contracts traded, net of all roll-overs. Silver's net volume was around 55,000 contracts. The preliminary open interest numbers are not encouraging...so I'm expecting a reasonably large increase in both silver and gold's open interest when the final numbers are posted later this morning. So it's obvious that yesterday's rally, despite the low volume numbers, did not go unopposed. I reserve the right to be wrong about this...but that's the way it looks at the moment.
Final open interest numbers for Friday's trading day showed a 2,037 contract decline in gold open interest...along with another fairly big rise in silver's open interest. This time it was 2,245 contracts. Ted feels [and I agree] that this jump in open interest must be spread related, as there was no price action during Friday's trading day to justify such a big increase.
Tuesday's price action in the Far East was very subdued...and volume in both metals was very light. But all that changed just a few minutes before the London open, as both silver and gold spiked higher. As of 4:55 a.m. Eastern...gold was up a hair over $10 from Monday's close...and silver was up about 16 cents. Volumes in both metals have jumped substantially as well.
London will open soon...and it will be interesting to see what develops at that point. Will both rallies get crushed immediately...or will the bullion banks wait for the New York open to do whatever they're going to do? We'll find out soon enough.
That's more than enough for one day...and I'll see you here tomorrow.