Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Feb 03, 2011 09:56AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Scotia Mocatta Sells Out Of All Silver Bars. Commodity prices explode in January. Record copper price tests $10,000. Authoritarian governments start stockpiling food to fight public anger...and much more.
The gold price sold off a bit over one percent from the beginning of Far East trading on Wednesday morning, to the New York low of $1,325.90 spot...which occurred at precisely 12:30 p.m. Eastern time. From that low, the gold price recovered a bit, but still closed the day down about seven bucks from Tuesday's closing price.
The silver price peaked around $28.75 spot at lunchtime in Hong Kong yesterday...and hit its low of the day at the same precise 12:30 p.m. New York time that gold did. That low checked in at $28.12 spot. Then, like gold, the price recovered somewhat into the New York close...but was still down about two bits from Tuesday's close.
For the first time this week, the dollar actually posted a small gain on the day. It opened flat in Far East trading yesterday...and remained that way until about 11:00 a.m. in London. From that point, a smallish rally developed...with the high of the day [such as it was] coming around 2:00 p.m. Eastern time. It also could have been at 12:30 p.m...which was the precise low for the precious metals.
The gold stocks pretty much followed the gold price to the tick...with the HUI hitting its low at precisely 12:30 p.m. along with the shares. The HUI struggled back to finished down 0.84% on the day.
The CME's Daily Delivery report showed that 312 gold and zero silver contracts were posted for delivery on Friday. The big issuer in gold was the Bank of Nova Scotia...and the big stopper was HSBC USA. The link to the action is here.
There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday...and a smallish 146,847 ounces of silver was withdrawn from SLV.
The U.S. Mint had no sales report yesterday...but over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday, there was a lot of frantic activity both in and out. By the time they parked the fork lifts, they had received 1,072,722 ounces of silver...and shipped out 895,088 ounces...for a net gain of 177,634 troy ounces. It must have been a busy day. The action is worth looking over...and the link is here.
My coin guy here in Edmonton sold several thousand ounces of silver yesterday...and not one ounce of gold. He guesses that his silver/gold sales ratio is about 500 to 1.
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I have a lot of stories today and, once again, the final edit is in your hands. The first item is a finance.yahoo.com story that was sent to me by reader Scott Pluschau. The headline reads "Builders began work on fewer projects in 2010". Construction spending dropped 10.3 percent last year, marking the fourth annual decline...and pushing total building activity down to the lowest point in a decade. The link is here.
Here's a must read zerohedge.com piece that several readers sent me yesterday...but the first one through the door was Bill King over at the King Report. The headline reads "As World Becomes Zimbabwefied, Cotton Futures Surge 17% In One Month". That's just cotton. How about corn spot up 7.76%, wheat up 5.63%, rice up 10.08%, hogs up 10.16%, sugar up 5.64%, and orange juice up 3.33%. That's in one month! Like I said, it's a must read...and the link is here.
Washington state reader S.A. has a Reuters piece about "How high's the cotton, mama"...and this one is headlined "US cotton rises for third day as mills rush to buy". The link is here.
This next story comes from reader U.D...and is contained in the January 28th edition of The Telegraph. "Authoritarian governments start stockpiling food to fight public anger". Commodities traders have warned they are seeing the first signs of panic buying from states concerned about the political implications of rising prices for staple crops. This story is worth you time...and the link is here.
Reader Roy Stephens has another rising prices story for us today. This is from yesterday's edition of The Telegraph...and the headline reads "Record copper price tests $10,000". Copper has hit a fresh record high just below $10,000 a tonne on hopes of increased demand amid supply shortages, which could be made worse by giant Cyclone Yasi in Australia. The link is here.
Since the previous story mentioned Cyclone Yasi...here's a satellite photo that shows this Category 5 monster just before it made landfall in north Queensland yesterday morning.
This next story is also courtesy of Roy Stephens...and it's a little something from The Huffington Post. The headline should be no surprise. It reads "Wall Street Pay Broke Record Last Year". Wall Street pay is rising, while income for normal Americans has stagnated. Even as the real economy limped, financial firms paid employees a record sum last year. The link is here.
A Marc Faber interview comes next...and it was first sent to me by reader Randall Reinwasser. However, I'm going to use the zerohedge.com write-up on it that Australian reader Wesley Legrand sent me, as Tyler Durden has a few pointed things to say in his preamble. The longish headline reads "Marc Faber Calls Bernanke A Liar, Thinks US Inflation Is Running Up To 8%, Believes Pakistan Will Fall Next". The interview runs 5:37...and is well worth your time...and the link is here. Marc really calls it like it is.
Next is an AP story posted over at news.yahoo.com...and it's another offering from reader Scott Pluschau. The headline states "Moody's downgrades 5 Egyptian banks". Moody's cuts come just two days after it lowered Egypt's sovereign rating, citing the unrest that has gripped the Arab world's most populous nation for more than a week. It warned that the five banks' ratings remain on review for possible additional downgrades. The link to the story is here.
The next item about the banks comes from The Independent in Ireland...and is courtesy of Washington state reader S.A. The headline reads "Banks lose €40bn over a month in deposits flight". Including December's €40bn withdrawal, a total of almost €110bn has been taken out of Ireland's 15 retail banks since the start of 2010. The link is here.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard had a few things to say about the Irish banking crisis in a story from yesterday's edition of The Telegraph. The headline reads "Irish bank flight quickens despite EU rescue". Deposit flight from Irish banks accelerated sharply at the end of last year on fears of political turmoil, suggesting that the EU-IMF rescue package for Ireland failed to restore confidence. I thank Roy Stephens for this story...and the link is here.
A headline in the February 1st edition of The New York Times states that "China Is Poised to Raise Rates Again, Bankers Say". China's government, increasingly worried about soaring inflation, plans to continue tightening its money supply and will probably raise interest rates again within the month. Once again Roy Stephens provides this read...and the link is here.
I have several precious metals-related stories for you at this point. The first is one I received from reader Scott Carpenter yesterday. It's a zerohedge.com piece that's headlined "Scotia Mocatta Sells Out Of All Silver Bars". The story consists of one short paragraph and a couple of pages from the Scotiabank Precious Metals website. It's a must read...and the link is here.
In Casey's Daily Dispatch yesterday...which you can sign up for free of charge...was an excellent piece about silver and real estate that was posted by BIG GOLD editor Jeff Clark. This short essay very much reminds me of what Ted Butler's mentor, Izzy Friedman had to say on this issue many years ago. The headline reads "How to Buy a Vacation Home". This is also very much worth your time...and the graph is excellent. The link is here...and if you want to receive CDD every day in your in-box for free...click here.
Here's another story that was sent to me by one of the guys at Casey Research HQ in Stowe, Vermont yesterday. It's a piece out of yesterday's edition of the Financial Times that ended up as a GATA release at my behest, as I wanted to make sure that I could post it for you to read. The FT headline reads "China on Track to Become Top Gold Buyer". Being the senior editor at Manchester, Connecticut's Journal-Enquirer...I like Chris Powell's headline better. It reads "Cash is trash in China, as rabbit-themed gold fills 'unbelievable' demand". I thank CR's own John Grandits for digging this up and sharing it with us. It's a must read...and the link to the GATA release is here.
Yesterday I ran a story about Barrick CEO Peter Munk, because he was pounding the table for gold in Davos. I mentioned something about G-rated and R-rated commentary. Well, I have a story from about five years ago regarding Barrick Gold's involvement in the gold market. At one point in their past, they had sold forward about 24 million ounces of the stuff...about eight years worth of their production at the time, if my memory serves me correctly. Virtually all of their forward sales were done through...drum roll please...bullion bank JPMorgan. I'm afraid that it's all G-rated...but some of it is right out of the Twilight Zone in spots...and there's the odd rabbit hole as well. The headline reads "Gold seems to have won the Blanchard case"...and I thank GATA's Chris Powell for digging it up. Refill your coffee...then click here.
Well, I must admit that I was expecting better price action yesterday in both metals then we got... as the 'key reversal to the upside' technical indicator on Tuesday turned out to be a bust. Yesterday's volume in gold was barely over 90,000 contracts net of roll-overs. The last time I saw volume at these levels was during the Christmas holiday season in December.
Silver's volume on Wednesday was low as well...under 45,000 net contracts traded. A couple of years back, a number like this one would have almost been a record high volume day in silver...but not these days.
Based on the preliminary open interest numbers that are posted, there might be further o.i. declines posted when the final numbers go up on the CME's website later this a.m.
Gold's final open interest changes on Tuesday shows that gold o.i. fell a smallish 793 contracts...while silver's o.i. was up 1,907 contracts.
All of these figures will show up in tomorrow's Commitment of Traders report. Both Ted Butler and I are expecting further improvement in the bullion banks' short positions. The February Bank Participation Report should also be out on Friday as well. This will tell us a lot...and, whatever both these reports have to say, will be in my Saturday column.
For fun, here's the 3-year chart of the old CRB...now called the CCI, or Continuous Commodity Index. Note we are at new record highs...and one can only imagine how much higher this chart would be, if the bullion banks weren't sitting on gold and silver. Both metals had equal weightings along with every other commodity in the old CRB.
Here's 3-year chart of the 'new and improved' version of the CRB...the one in current use today. Despite record high prices in virtually every commodity on the planet...we are nowhere near record highs on this commodities index. That's why it got changed...as 'the powers that be' knew back then that the money supply was going to go parabolic...which it now has. I'm sure Bernanke is very pleased that "inflation expectations are well contained."
Even though London has been open for a few hours already, volume in both silver and gold is microscopic compared to yesterday...around 11,200 contracts in gold, along with 2,400 contracts in silver. Based on this volume, I wouldn't read a thing into any price action [either negative or positive] up to this point...which is 4:53 a.m. Eastern time.
Silver didn't make it over its 50-day moving average at any point during Wednesday's trading session...and we're well over $40 below gold's 50-day m.a.
I'm still watching the dollar like a hawk, as it's still massively oversold...and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see a surprise 'rally' develop, which would allow the bullion banks to lean on the gold and silver prices one last time. But, in order to generate more spec long liquidation from the technical funds, they have to get the prices down to new lows for this move. That's a long way down in silver...but only a chip shot in gold.
Can they, or will they? I have no idea, but the possibility is there...so it would be negligence on my part if I didn't point it out.
That's it for Thursday...and I'll see you here tomorrow.