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Message: JPMorgan/HSBC silver swap book may not stand the light of day

There may be some hope in the CFTC investigation. Apparently the CFTC may be taking over the CME role in looking at the short trades. Like a vampire, exposure of the silver shorts may make them disappear. The following is from Harvey Organs blog and purports to be Ted Butler but there is some Harvey Organ commentary mixed in.

"The CFTC/CME position limits meeting on Thursday was a bust of sorts. Here's silver analyst Ted Butler's take on it. "The CFTC meeting went pretty close to what I had handicapped on Wednesday. The proposal involves a formula based upon total open interest [10% of the first 25,000 contracts of open interest...and 2.5% of the remaining open interest]. In silver, this would amount to a position limit of around 5,300 contracts based upon current open interest. This is an economically stupid level for silver position limits and the staff should be ashamed for proposing it. It is three and a half times greater than the 1,500 contract level proposed by thousands of members of the public."

"The sad truth is that the [staff's] proposal was only passed because it is a measure without substance and is only tentative at best. Given the current composition of the Commission, no meaningful reform on position limits is possible anytime soon. Nothing with teeth could garner a majority vote."

[But] "there was one surprising and very encouraging development. There was palpable and genuine alarm and concern expressed by Commissioners O'Malia and Sommers, two staunch opponents of position limits, about the [CFTC's] staff looking into the details of JPMorgan's swap book which justifies its giant concentrated silver short position on the Comex. Heretofore, this function had been handled by the CME. Of course, neither silver nor JPMorgan was mentioned, but it was clear that any such inquiry was of great concern [to them]. As you may recall, this issue came up at the last hearing on December 16th...and it led to my speculation that JPM's swap book was [filled] mostly with Chinese counterparties. Whether interests from China are holding positions in the OTC market with JPM is of secondary importance. The real issue is that JPMorgan has to have some excuse for holding the concentrated silver short position and it appears that the CFTC surveillance staff is beginning the process of inquiry.

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