From the end of last week...

Regards - VHF

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Gold lost $24.80 U.S. per ounce (1.78%) last week mainly on strength in the U.S. Dollar. Gold recorded a bearish key reversal pattern on Tuesday. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels. Short term downside risk is to its 50 day moving average currently at 1,326.30.

The S&P/TSX Gold Index was virtually unchanged last week. It too recorded a bearish key reversal on Tuesday. Short term momentum indicators have peaked and are rolling over.

Silver slipped $0.67 U.S. per ounce (2.5%) last week. It also recorded a bearish key reversal on Tuesday. Short term momentum indicators recorded sell signals on Friday. Short term downside risk is to its 50 day moving average currently at $23.01.

Platinum dropped $86 U.S. per ounce (4.9%) last week. Momentum indicators have rolled over. Short term downside risk is to its 50 day moving average at $1,667.54

Copper slipped 5.05 cents U.S. per lb. (1.3%) last week. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and rolling over.

The CRB Index fell 9.96 points (3.18%) last week on strength in the U.S. Dollar and concerns that China is trying to slow its economic growth. MACD, RSI and Stochastics recorded short term sell signals on Thursday and Friday.

Crude Oil fell $1.91 U.S. per barrel (2.20%) last week. It found resistance just above a previous resistance level at $87.26. MACD, RSI and Stochastics have peaked at overbought levels and have started to turn lower.

Unleaded gasoline added $0.01 last week and broke resistance at $2.197. However, short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking.

Natural gas slipped $0.12 per MBtu (3.0%) last week. It broke above resistance at $4.236 before rolling over. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels.

The grain ETN fell $2.82 (5.6%) last week. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels.

The U.S. Dollar Index added another 1.51 last week. Support may be forming at 75.63. Resistance is in a range between 80.08 and 83.56. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index is testing its 50 day moving average at 78.69. Short term momentum indicators continue to recover from oversold levels. Strength in the U.S. Dollar Index can be attributed partially to higher interest rates on long term U.S. Treasuries despite purchases of short term Treasuries on Friday by the Federal Reserve.

Conversely, the Euro fell 3.41 last week in response to strength in the U.S. Dollar. Intermediate trend remains up. The Euro is testing its 50 day moving average currently at 136.10. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend lower and have yet to show signs of bottoming. Support exists in a range between 125.91 and 133.34.

The Canadian Dollar lost 0.89 cents U.S. last week. Intermediate resistance near100.20 cents U.S. was confirmed. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing signs of rolling over. Support is near 93.70.

The S&P 500 Index fell 26.64 points (2.17%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Support is at 1,039.70. Resistance may be forming at 1,227.08. The Index remains well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Stochastics, RSI and MACD recorded a short term sell signal from overbought levels on Friday. Intermediate downside risk is to its 50 day moving average currently at 1,161.75.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 251.50 points (2.20%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength stalled just above a previous trading range. Weakness late last week occurred on rising volume. Short term momentum indicators rolled over. Stochastics, RSI and MACD recorded sell signals on Friday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Short term downside risk is to its 50 day moving average currently at 10,938.

The TSX Composite Index fell 175.87 points (1.36%) last week. The Index recorded a bearish key reversal on Tuesday. Intermediate trend is up. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and have rolled over. Stochastics, RSI and MACD recorded short term sell signals either on Thursday or Friday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Short term downside risk is to its 50 day moving average currently at 12,464.86.

The yield on 10 year Treasuries gained 22 basis points last week and is testing resistance at 2.83%. Support is at 2.33%. Short term momentum indicators continue to recover from oversold levels. Gains came despite purchases of shorter term Treasuries by the Federal Reserve on Friday as part of its second quantitative easing program (QE II).

Conversely, the long term Treasury ETF fell another $2.17 (2.2%) last week on higher than average volume. TLT is testing its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but continue to trend lower.

The Baltic Dry Index fell 182 (7.3%) last week and broke support at 2,444. The Index is considered to be “the canary in the coal mine” for international trade. The break below support late last week following the G20 failure is ominous. It is a warning sign that either currency or trade controls are likely to surface soon. Shades of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 that accelerated the depression! Following is a link that explains the Act and its impact: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Act

The Volatility Index jumped 2.35% (12.9%) last week. Support is at 17.90%. Short term momentum indicators are bottoming at oversold levels.