The news noise around tonight's mid-term election results in the United States is predictable.

Republicans will claim victory and promise to block legislation that has already been approved. There will be lots of talk about a one-term presidency.

Democrats will also claim victory, even if they lose control, by saying it could have been worse. They will point out that their president remains higher in popularity than most others have at the mid-term point.

Sarah Palin and her Tea Party will declare victory no matter what. They will claim their grassroots movement is just the beginning and that whoever they send to Washington will change everything.

And U.S. stock markets will go up because political gridlock and the third year of the presidential cycle has yielded the highest return, or 14% increases, for 80 years except for 1931 and 1939.

Here's the historical data, compliments of TD Bank portfolio strategist Bob Gorman.

"We have examined the S&P 500 data from 1928 through 2009 and, to simplify matters, broken the presidential term into its two halves: Years one and two versus years three and four. The average return of years one and two combined over that period of roughly 80 years is about 8%. In contrast, the cumulative return of years three and four over the same period approximates 22%. So, the second half of the presidential term generates an increase in the index roughly 175% greater than in the first half."

The presidency/equity cycle is not news but always interesting to repeat, if only to dispel the pundits who will pontificate about economic disaster resulting from a major Democrat setback by Republicans or even a handful of Tea Party hopefuls. (Most of these are amateurs right out of city council, school board or the Parent Teachers Association and will be crushed in Washington by both parties.)

The cycle occurs because presidents do tough things in their first two years, get smashed in polls, lose seats or control, then moderate their initiatives as they coast toward reelection or their successor's election. The third year is about politics, pork barrel, pacifying voters and not about legacy legislation. Mid-term beatings are a pattern.

"Since the end of the Civil War in 1865, the party of the White House incumbent has recorded mid-term election gains on only three occasions: 1934 under FDR; 1998 under Bill Clinton and 2002 under George W. Bush," Mr. Gorman said. "This is important, as it means most of the time the president faces stiff opposition in the Congress is after the mid-term election. This often means a political stalemate and a much less activist legislative agenda. In turn, this translates into greater certainty from an investment standpoint and very often much better market performance in the second half of the presidential term."

So those of us couch potatoes who will watch tonight's returns roll, just chill and look forward to rosy returns in the United States