We shall see if gold and silver can maintain their positive momentum from last week...

Regards - VHF

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Gold gained another $34.80 last week and broke above resistance levels at $1,144.80 and 1,160.80. Short term momentum indicators continue to recover from oversold levels. Next resistance is at $1,226.40. Weakness in the U.S. Dollar early this week will trigger a test of resistance.

The Philadelphia Gold Index broke resistance at 172.73 after bouncing from its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to gold remains positive, an encouraging technical sign for both gold and gold stocks.

Ditto for the TSX Global Gold Index! Nice breakout above resistance on Friday to establish an intermediate uptrend!

Silver gained another $0.46 per ounce. Short term momentum indicators continue to recover from oversold levels.

The U.S. Dollar added 0.23 last week. However, focus was on the 0.60 drop on Friday on anticipation of a deal to bail out Greece. Resistance has formed at 82.24. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and trending down. MACD has established an intermediate downtrend. Short term downside risk is to support at 79.51. ‘Tis the season for the U.S. Dollar to start moving lower!

David Skarica at www.addictedtoprofits.com notes that much of the strength in the U.S. Dollar since December can be attributed mainly to weakness in the Euro. Currencies for major countries outside of the Euro (Canada, Brazil, Australia, non-Euro based countries in Europe) have trended higher. A bailout of Greece and a corresponding recovery in the Euro could trigger significant weakness in the U.S. Dollar relative to all major world currencies.

The Euro eased 0.83 last week. However, the focus was on a gain of 1.40 on Friday in anticipation of a deal with Greece. Support is indicated at 132.69. Short term momentum indicators are oversold and recovering. MACD has established an intermediate uptrend. Short term upside potential to resistance at 137.82 is a reasonable expectation if a deal with Greece is reached. ‘Tis the season for the Euro to move higher.

The Canadian Dollar added another 0.57 last week. It briefly broke “par” to reach a 22 month high. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. ‘Tis the season for the Canadian Dollar to move higher! April is the strongest month in the year for the Canadian Dollar. Intermediate upside potential is to 103.75.

The S&P 500 Index gained 16.27 points (1.38%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. It closed at an 18 month high on Friday. Support is at 1,044.50. Short term momentum indicators remain stalled at overbought levels. Seasonal influences remain positive. Intermediate downside risk is to its 50 day moving average currently at 1,129.36.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 70.28 points (0.64%) last week. The Average closed at an 18 month high on Friday. Intermediate trend is up. Seasonal influences remain positive. Short term momentum indicators are intermediate overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 resumed a negative trend. Intermediate downside risk is to its 50 day moving average currently at 10,510.78.

The TSX Composite Index gained another 25.78 points (0.21%) last week. The Index closed at an 18 month high on Friday. Intermediate trend is up. Short term momentum indicators have stalled at overbought levels. Support is a 10,990.41. Seasonal influences remain positive. Strength relative to the S&P 500 has been negative during the past seven weeks mainly because of strength in the Canadian Dollar. Intermediate downside risk is to its 50 day moving average currently at 11,762.37.

Crude oil slipped $0.75 last week after reaching an 18 month high. MACD is overbought, but continues to trend higher. ‘Tis the season for crude oil to move higher!

Gasoline slipped $0.05 per gallon last week after touching an 18 month high. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Weekly inventories moved significantly lower. ‘Tis the season for gasoline to move higher into May.

The yield on ten year U.S. Treasuries tested resistance at 4.014 last week, but backed off after a successful auction in mid week. Short term momentum indicators are overbought implying that a break above the 11 month trading range is unlikely to occur soon.

The VIX Index fell to another 18 month low.

The Baltic Dry Index slipped 2.4% last week.