A short review of a few key charts as we start a new week and end Q1.

Regards - VHF

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Gold added $0.30 last week following a strong gain on Friday related to U.S. Dollar weakness. Stochastics are short term oversold and trying to recover.

Silver slipped $0.09 per ounce last week. Strength relative to gold remains positive. Short term Stochastics are oversold, but have yet to show signs of recovery.

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.85 points last week and broke above resistance levels at 81.34 and 81.47. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher.

The Euro fell another 1.29 last week and broke support at 134.61. Short term momentum indicators are oversold and may be trying to bottom. The tentative agreement between European leaders and the IMF on Friday triggered a strong recovery. A short term bounce to138, the top of recent trading range or to near its 50 day moving average at 137.48 is possible.

The Canadian Dollar slipped 1.01 cents U.S. last week and returned to the top of its previous trading range. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels. Intermediate downside risk is to its 200 day moving average currently at 93.48. Intermediate upside potential is 103.75.

The CRB Index slipped 5.41 points (1.95%) last week on strength in the U.S. Dollar. Support is at 256.89 and resistance is at 293.75. Short term Stochastics already are oversold but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Its 200 day moving average currently at 266.15 has proven to be a reliable support level during the past year.

Crude oil slipped $0.97 (1.12%) per barrel last week. Resistance near $84 has been significant. On the other hand, weakness was surprisingly tame last week given strength in the U.S. Dollar. Stochastics are approaching an oversold level, but continue to trend lower. Support at its 50 day moving average currently at $78.30 is possible. ‘Tis the season for crude oil to move higher!

Gasoline fell $0.04 (1.78%) last week. Stochastics already are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. The crack spread continues to recover. Inventories fell sharply last week. They normally trend lower from mid February. ‘Tis the season for gasoline prices to move higher.

Technicals for natural gas continues to deteriorate.

Copper slipped $0.04 per lb. last week. Resistance near $3.49 is formidable. Support may be forming at its 50 day moving average at $3.27. News of a pending ETF based on physical copper is a minor positive. ‘Tis the season for copper to move higher!

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained another108.38 points (0.89%) last week. It reached an 18 month high on Thursday. Intermediate trend remains up. Support is indicated at 9,835.09. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is showing early signs of turning positive from negative. Seasonal influences remain positive. Intermediate downside risk is to its 50 day moving average at 10,420.51.

The S&P 500 Index added another 6.69 points (0.58%) last week. It reached an 18 month high on Thursday. Intermediate trend is up. Support is indicated at 1,044.50. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and rolling over. MACD is close to a negative cross over. RSI fell below the 70% level on Friday. Stochastics fell below the 80% level on Friday. Seasonal influences remain positive. Intermediate downside risk is to the Index’ 50 day moving average currently at 1,118.02.

The TSX Composite Index added 9.39 points (0.08%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Support is at 10,990.41. Short term momentum indicators rolled over from overbought levels last week. MACD, RSI and Stochastics recorded short term sell signals and continue to trend lower. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index during the past two months is neutral at best and negative during the past month. Intermediate downside risk is to its 50 day moving average currently at 11,657.25.

The yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries jumped 0.16% last week and is testing a ten month resistance level at 3.98%. Two lame Treasury auctions last week (5 and 7 year auctions) raised concerns. The size of Treasury auctions remains extraordinary. Evidence of withdrawal from auctions by international buyers continues to build. Rates will need to move higher if buyers of long term Treasuries are to be sold to investors.

Conversely, Treasury bond prices are moving lower on higher than average volume.

The VIX Index recovered 0.80% last week. It bounced from near an 18 month support level.

The Baltic Dry Index slipped 8.7% last week.