Re: Longish, but read it anyway
posted on
Mar 27, 2010 04:05PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Hi pic,
Sid Klein put a lot of effort into that piece. A lot of useful information with those charts. Some of it is really enlightening for sure, and some of it a little depressing to me. He arrives at some serious conclusions, sounding, imo, a little like Jim Willie as he was wrapping it up.
What made me sit up and take notice was his claim that China, while hedging their mine activity, was shorting silver contracts through JPMorgan, and according to Klein, may be the trigger that eventually brings the whole thing down with JPM having to declare force majeur. That's a new one on me.
China, of course, would get blamed for it all, not the US banks. A typical US blame the wrong party scam. What an out that would be. The scary part is that according to Klein that would NOTcause a price explosion but the opposite - the short position would just disappear with lawyers trying to sort it out. Guess who would really get screwed if that were to happen
Here's the part:
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"Make no mistake of it. The Chinese short silver contracts negotiated with JP Morgan (to hedge mining) could prove to be the "test case", and the one that blows up. International tribunals would need to be involved, the Chinese have said, while they are scapegoated by a US government with its own heist in mind.
JPM would be declaring a force majeur and fail on the short silver deals. So, the Chinese action would not result in a massive short covering rally in silver but, rather, the opposite as the short position just disappears, with no more of an effort than what lawyers can contribute.
The brief version of the short silver story and China's part in it is that the potential clearly exists for defaults on agreements, along with the demonization of the Chinese who would be blamed for any fallout. It would not be the US banks.
As a supreme example, let us consider a nightmare scenario, where the US leader writes off the US debt with the stroke of a militarily supported pen, and then points to the redemption value of gold holdings, which are, as a per cent of today's price, in the lower single digits.
Eventually, this mega-heist and crime of the century is the ideal financial trigger to war."