Mornin Pic.

I don't know about the $ right now. For months the world has been shorting the US $. There may be an unwinding of the short and carry trades going on that could hold the $ up for a while. Even as the $ tots, its relative value could hold to a level beyond its reasonable worth. (Compared to other worthless fiat.)

The problem is that there are too many $s in the world. Normally that gross oversupply would cause the $ to fall, but it is hard to exit the $ without causing the $ to crash and there are too many who have too many $s.

China is the poster child for this situation. They have more $s than any non-US nation, yet they could not exit a significant fraction without destroying their own reserves. To them right now they are in the unique situation that it benefits them to hold $s in order to hold the scizors to the sword of damicles hanging over the US. For the time being there are many who need the $ to hold up.

We need to view the strong $ interms of momentum, not fair value. I can see the $ range bound 76 - 80 for some time.