Dear Mr Maund,
What unmitigated twaddle!

If you would only get your head out of your charts and look at the underlying fundamentals governing the price of gold and silver which are: serious, if not catastrophic, dwindling physical supply in both these precious metals - especially silver, unrelenting, historically unprecedented, 'naked' shorting-selling by US Bullion Banks (for reasons that have nothing to do with normal trading, such trades being intrinsically uneconomic and from which, ultimately, no profit derives), with such naked shorting amounting to something in the region of 25% of world annual production of gold and silver - naked (paper) shorting which has gone on unchecked by US regulatory agencies, primarily the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and which amounts to wholesale manipulation of the gold and silver markets in the US and which means that the CFTC, because of their failure to take any action whatsoever, may be complicit in such manipulation.

All of this may or may not show in charts, depending on your view, although the glaring uncharacteristic break-down of silver at a time of year when it is starting its spring rally, is remarkably visible. It does not detract, though, from the fact that above ground physical supplies of gold and silver (silver especially) are very tight (to put it mildly) and though they try to avoid the obligation, the COMEX is, primarily, a market for physical gold and silver. If they have none, paper is no substitute, so those who need and desire real gold and real silver will go elsewhere which will lead, eventually to the COMEX, GLOBEX and other US markets for gold and silver, having been thoroughly compromised, being side-stepped completely. The result of that will be that the prices of gold and silver will be set elsewhere as the market demands and ultimately obtains, proper price discovery for these metals.

In other words: there cannot be, nor will there be any serious price breakdown since the manipulation forces now ranged on the short side of gold and silver will be overwhelmed, and the owners of these shorts will be bankrupted. Of that there is no doubt. I'm sure you feel you are serving your clients well with your cautious approach which, in normal circumstances, would be commendable. However, as you must be aware, there are no normal circumstances now and the situation (reflected in the fundamentals of gold and silver) is deteriorating daily, bringing with it a rapid and awesome resolution to the 20 year suppression of gold and silver prices.

I am afraid the Manipulators rely on TA followers, such as you, to keep fear and despondency burning in the hearts and minds of people who buy gold and silver. Perhaps reliance on an analysis of the fundamentals limits your subscribers but reliance on TA alone is now dangerous and counter-productive. The Manipulators are able to 'paint the charts' to show the exact opposite of what the real market is saying or doing. If there is a catastrophic breakdown in gold and silver prices, what could possibly be the underlying cause? A collapse of base metals and the broad stock markets? Why, in fundamental terms, would that affect gold and silver (except perhaps for a few days, at most)? If there is no physical supply, even if other industrial metals are in price decline, are you suggesting that gold and silver industrial users and, more importantly, investors, would just stop buying? Are you suggesting they would just say: 'Ah well, there's very little metal around but I'll just wait a few months - perhaps there won't be anything available then but at least what little is available will be cheaper!

To be blunt, Mr Maund - get real (gold and silver, that is!)
Jack Kristeller