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Message: Gold comments in Canaccord "morning coffee"

Gold comments in Canaccord "morning coffee"

posted on Dec 02, 2009 10:50AM

Gold (GOLDC : NYMEX : US$1200.20), Net Change: 17.90, % Change: 1.51%

SPDR Gold ETF (GLD : NYSE : US$117.38), Net Change: 1.74, % Change: 1.50%, Volume: 27,624,607


It's Goldberg, not Rosenberg.

Bloomberg quoted Ji Xiaonan, the head of the supervisory committee at the state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission in China, in saying, the country should increase the amount of gold it holds in reserves to reduce potential losses from a depreciating dollar.

Ji recommended that China increase its gold reserves to 6,000 tonnes within three-to-five years and possibly to 10,000 tonnes in eight to 10 years. David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist with Gluskin Sheff + Associates pondered this and said, "If China were to lift their gold reserves to 5,000 tonnes, which is equivalent to about two years of global production, that shift in demand would boost the gold price by $800/oz to around $2,000 ($1,978) based on our models.

If China moves towards 10,000 tonnes, well, that would end up taking the gold price to $2,623/ounce if our calculations are in the ball-park." While still a self-described gold bull, Rosenberg does caution that, "we could get a meaningful gold correction at any time, and we are talking about a correction in what is still a secular bull market - the 200-day moving average is $970/oz, which means we could get as much as a 20% pullback and no fundamental trendline would be violated." According to Xinhua, China has increased its gold reserves by 76% to 1,054 tons since 2003.

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